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MLS 2/22/2026 at 03:30 AM

CF Montreal

@

San Diego FC

Spread

San Diego FC -1.25 / CF Montreal +1.25

62%

consensus

San Diego FC covers

13 models · avg conf 70%

San Diego FC covers (62%) CF Montreal covers (38%)
8 models · avg 70% avg 61% · 5 models

San Diego FC covers

San Diego FC is routinely priced at -1.25 with reasonable odds to cover. Home field and a favorable matchup against Montreal increase the likelihood of a two-goal or better victory.

With a spread of -1.25, San Diego FC has shown the ability to win by multiple goals in previous matchups, making them likely to cover the spread.

Grok 3
70%

San Diego FC is favored by -1.25 or -1.5 across various spreads with odds around 2.01 to 2.16. Given their strong moneyline odds, they are likely to win by at least 2 goals, covering the spread.

GPT-4o
70%

The spread odds suggest San Diego FC is likely to win by more than 1.25 goals. Given the moneyline odds and San Diego's home advantage, they have a good chance to cover the spread.

San Diego FC is favored by -1.25 to -1.5 points across all sportsbooks. The -1.25 spread appears most frequently with odds of 2.01-2.02, suggesting the market expects San Diego to win by more than 1 goal. This aligns with the moneyline odds and betting consensus of a dominant home performance.

Books are offering San Diego between -1.25 and -1.5. Given the favorite status and home edge, San Diego is more likely to cover a -1.25 line; -1.5 is riskier, so confidence is moderate.

GLM-5
62%

San Diego FC -1.25 is priced at 2.01-2.02, offering slight value on the spread. The alternative -1.5 line at 2.16 suggests bookmakers expect a multi-goal victory. Given the disparity in moneyline odds and home advantage in MLS, San Diego covering -1.25 goals is the logical play, though confidence is moderate due to MLS unpredictability.

Grok 4
60%

The spread lines (-1.25 at 2.01-2.02 for San Diego FC) suggest they are expected to win by at least 1-2 goals, with odds slightly favoring the home team to cover.

CF Montreal covers

While San Diego FC is heavily favored to win, the spread odds for CF Montreal +1.25 (average 1.82-1.83) are slightly lower than San Diego FC -1.25 (average 2.01-2.02). This implies that the market sees it as slightly more probable for CF Montreal to either lose by only one goal, draw, or win the match. Combined with the expectation of a lower-scoring game (Under 3.5 is favored), a tight victory for San Diego FC (e.g., 1-0 or 2-1) makes CF Montreal +1.25 a more likely cover.

While San Diego FC is favored to win, the spread odds suggest a close game. The odds for CF Montreal to cover +1.5 are very low (1.62), indicating the market believes they will keep the margin to one goal or less. The odds for San Diego FC covering -1.25 are over 2.00, suggesting it's an outcome with less than 50% probability. This points towards a narrow San Diego victory.

While San Diego is expected to win, the -1.25 to -1.5 goal spread is significant in MLS where matches are often decided by single goals. Montreal getting +1.25 at 1.82-1.83 odds represents value, as they only need to avoid losing by 2+ goals. The market is nearly split on this line, suggesting uncertainty about the margin of victory.

GPT-5
58%

Market shades CF Montreal +1.25 (1.82–1.83) vs SD -1.25 (~2.01), and -1.5 on SD is +money, suggesting 1-goal SD win or closer more likely.

While San Diego is favored to win, the -1.25 spread is aggressive for MLS where home favorites often struggle to cover larger spreads. CF Montreal getting +1.25 means they only need to lose by 1 goal or less to cover. MLS road teams historically perform better against the spread than expected, and the nearly even odds on the spread (1.82-1.83 for Montreal +1.25) suggest this is close to a coin flip. Taking the points offers slight value.

Moneyline

San Diego FC +1.47 / CF Montreal +5.75

100%

consensus

San Diego FC wins

13 models · avg conf 80%

San Diego FC wins (100%) CF Montreal wins (0%)
13 models · avg 80% avg 0% · 0 models

San Diego FC wins

San Diego FC is a clear and consistent favorite across all moneyline odds provided, with average odds around 1.45. This indicates a very high implied probability of them winning the match at home against CF Montreal, who are priced as significant underdogs.

San Diego FC has consistently lower odds, indicating stronger market confidence in their ability to win at home against CF Montreal.

GPT-4o
85%

The moneyline odds consistently favor San Diego FC, indicating a strong probability of them winning. The odds for San Diego are significantly lower, reflecting the bookmakers' confidence in their victory.

The moneyline odds are consistently and heavily in favor of San Diego FC, with an average around 1.44. This implies a win probability of approximately 69%, making them the clear and strong favorite at home.

Grok 3
85%

San Diego FC has consistently low odds across multiple moneyline listings (ranging from 1.42 to 1.47), indicating strong market confidence in their ability to win. CF Montreal's odds (ranging from 5.25 to 6.5) suggest they are significant underdogs.

San Diego FC is heavily favored with moneyline odds averaging around 1.45 compared to Montreal's 5.75-6.5. This represents an implied probability of approximately 68-70% for a San Diego win. The market shows strong consensus across all books that San Diego is the clear favorite at home.

GLM-5
78%

San Diego FC is a heavy home favorite with odds consistently around 1.42-1.47, implying approximately 68-70% win probability. CF Montreal's away odds of 5.25-6.5 indicate they are significant underdogs with only 15-19% implied probability. The consistent pricing across multiple bookmakers reinforces San Diego's strong position.

Market consensus strongly favors San Diego (moneylines ~1.42–1.47). Home advantage plus consistent heavy-favorite pricing implies a high probability San Diego wins.

San Diego FC is the clear favorite in the listed moneyline odds (roughly 1.42–1.47) against CF Montreal, a weaker road side. Implied win probability is well above 60%.

Grok 4
75%

San Diego FC is heavily favored across all moneyline odds (1.42-1.47), implying a strong probability of victory over CF Montreal (5.25-6.5).

San Diego FC is heavily favored with consistent odds ranging from 1.42-1.47 across all sportsbooks, implying approximately 67-70% implied win probability. CF Montreal's odds of 5.25-6.5 suggest only 15-19% implied probability. The consistency across multiple books indicates strong market confidence in San Diego FC's superiority.

San Diego FC is heavily favored across all sportsbooks with moneyline odds ranging from 1.42-1.47 (implied probability ~68-70%). As the home team with such strong market consensus, the odds suggest bookmakers see San Diego as clear favorites. CF Montreal's long odds (5.25-6.5) indicate they're significant underdogs. The consistent pricing across multiple books reinforces this expectation.

GPT-5
70%

Consistent heavy favorite across books (1.42–1.47 implies ~68–70%); home edge and Montreal’s long travel spot.

Over/Under

O/U 3

54%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 68%

Over (46%) Under (54%)
6 models · avg 64% avg 68% · 7 models

Over

The majority of betting lines suggest a high likelihood of scoring, with odds favoring the over on totals of 3 and 3.5, indicating expectations for a high-scoring game.

The common total line is Over 3 at around 1.82, and MLS matches with this matchup profile tend to produce multiple goals. San Diego FC's offense combined with Montreal’s pursuit of a result supports hitting 3 or more.

GPT-4o
65%

The odds for over 3 goals are more favorable, suggesting a higher likelihood of a high-scoring game. San Diego's strong offensive capabilities and the spread indicate potential for multiple goals.

Grok 3
60%

The totals line is set at 3 or 3.5 with odds for 'Over' ranging from 1.82 to 2.33. Given San Diego FC's favored status and potential for a high-scoring game against a weaker CF Montreal, 'Over' seems slightly more likely, though with moderate confidence.

Grok 4
55%

Totals lines at Over 3 (1.82) vs Under 3 (2.02) indicate a slight edge to over, with some 3.5 lines also leaning towards higher scoring.

GPT-5
55%

Over 3 (1.82) vs Under 3 (2.02) indicates slight lean to 3+ goals; with 3.5 juiced to the under, 3 is a common outcome—Over 3 offers push protection.

Under

The 'Under 3.5' goals option is consistently and significantly favored across the board, with odds averaging around 1.57-1.59. This strong market consensus indicates a high probability of 3 or fewer goals being scored in the match. Even the 'Under 3' goals has slightly better odds than 'Over 3', reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring affair.

The betting lines strongly favor a lower-scoring game. The odds for Under 3.5 goals are consistently low (around 1.57-1.59), making it a significant favorite. This indicates a high market expectation that the total number of goals will be three or fewer.

Lines cluster around 3.0 (some books 3.5) with bookmakers shading the under on 3.5. MLS fixtures and these prices suggest a lower-scoring outcome (likely ≤3 goals).

The totals line sits at 3 to 3.5 goals with Under 3.5 heavily favored at 1.57-1.59 odds. Even the Under 3 is priced at 2.02, indicating bookmakers expect a relatively low-scoring affair. MLS matches frequently stay under 3 goals, and with Montreal likely playing defensively as underdogs, a 2-0 or 2-1 San Diego win seems most probable.

The Under 3 goals is favored at 2.02 odds versus Over 3 at 1.82 odds, suggesting slightly lower scoring expectations. Additionally, Under 3.5 is favored at 1.57-1.59 versus Over 3.5 at 2.23-2.33. While MLS games can be variable, the booking pattern and odds structure suggest a moderately-scored affair rather than a high-scoring contest.

GLM-5
58%

The 3.5 goal total line favors the under at 1.57-1.59, implying approximately 63% probability. The 3-goal line shows slight lean toward over at 1.82, suggesting an expected 2-3 goal game. With San Diego as heavy favorites controlling the match and Montreal likely struggling offensively away from home, under 3.5 goals offers reasonable value.

The total is set at 3 goals with most books showing slight juice toward the under (2.02 vs 1.82), while some books offer 3.5 with heavier under juice (1.57-1.59). This suggests bookmakers expect a lower-scoring affair. San Diego FC is a newer expansion team (2025), and early-season MLS matches often see tighter, more defensive play. The market is pricing in around 2.5-3 expected goals, favoring the under.

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