GPT-5

Total at 136.5 sits near a moderate pace projection; Bryant’s pace plus late-game fouling in a competitive spread leans this toward the high 130s.

At +5.5, Binghamton’s slower tempo can compress possessions and margins in a conference game, making a two-possession cover plausible even if Bryant wins.

Market has Bryant -5.5 at home, implying a mid-60s win probability. Home-court edge and a more explosive offensive profile tilt the matchup their way.

Total at 147.5 implies moderate-to-high pace/efficiency; UMass Lowell home games tend to be faster, and a competitive spread increases late-game fouling—slight lean to the over.

With a -4.5 line near a median margin of ~5 and a small favorite at home, wins often correlate with covers; lean to UMass Lowell to finish a two-possession result.

Market makes UMass Lowell a solid home favorite (~66–69% implied). Home court plus the matchup profile (stronger offense) points to the River Hawks to win outright.

With a likely half-court pace and Vermont’s typically disciplined defense, a tight conference game profiles slightly to the under at 140.5.

Vermont +1.5 aligns with the market shading toward the Catamounts and the small home favorite line. Even a one-point UMBC win still cashes Vermont +1.5.

Market makes UMBC only -1.5 at home (implying Vermont stronger on a neutral), and plus-money on Vermont with spread juice tilted their way suggests slight value on the Catamounts. Vermont’s program has been the steadier side historically in the America East.

Total is 153–153.5; despite some over juicing at 153.5, Liberty’s typical pace control at home points to a lean under this high number.

Consensus line sits at -10.5 with some books shading toward Liberty, suggesting likelihood of a double-digit win at home.

Liberty is a heavy home favorite with a 1.13 ML (≈88% implied) and multiple markets aligning on a double-digit spread.

Total 152.5 is elevated; a front-running favorite can slow pace late, and if the underdog struggles to score, it drags the total down.

The -13.5 is a large number in a high-total game, increasing variance and backdoor cover potential; lean to USC Upstate +13.5.

The market price (1.08) implies a ~93% win probability, signaling a clear mismatch plus home-court edge for Winthrop.

141.5 is the market pivot, and at 140.5 the over is slightly favored—implying a fair total near 141; at 141.5 that yields a slight value tilt to the under.

Several books shade Appalachian St -2.5 (as low as 1.83) indicating a lean toward the favorite covering a small number; home-court edge supports -2.5.

Market implies ~60% win probability (ML ~1.59) and aligns with a short home favorite; pricing consensus supports the Mountaineers straight up.

Slight shading toward the over at 132.5 (over 1.87 vs under 1.95) suggests a marginal lean to the over around this number.

With a relatively low total (132.5–133), points are at a premium, making Wagner +5.5 more valuable; consistent 5.5 indicates a tight margin more often.

Market has Mercyhurst -5.5 across shops, implying a solid favorite at home. Spread-equivalent suggests a clear win probability edge.

Slight market lean to Over at 119.5 (lower payout on Over) with totals toggling 119.5–120.5; in a very low number, modest efficiency or late-game fouling can push it above.

At -2.5/+2.5 the underdog side is juiced (Stonehill +2.5 ~1.85), suggesting a tighter game; low total increases the value of points, favoring Stonehill to cover even if they lose narrowly.

Market consensus makes New Haven a small home favorite around -2 across books, implying slight win probability edge at home.

Totals sit 151.5–152 with slight shading toward the over at 151.5, indicating an expected higher-tempo, efficient scoring game.

Market centers at -14 with some -13.5 shaded toward the favorite, suggesting a slight edge for High Point to cover at home.

A -13.5/-14 spread implies a strong home favorite with win probability well above 75%; multiple books align at this range.

Several books juice the Over at 138.5, and a tight spread increases late-game fouling/possession intensity—both support a slight lean to the Over around 138.5–139.

Where -2.5 is offered, juice leans toward Longwood +2.5 (lower payout on the dog), signaling market interest in the points and a likely one-possession game.

Consensus spread sits around Presbyterian -2 across books, indicating a slight home edge; symmetrical pricing suggests modest but real favoritism at home.

Total is 134.5 with some under-side shading, suggesting a mid-slower pace and modest offensive efficiency; slight lean to a lower score.

True line clusters around -2 with some resistance at -2.5; small edge to FDU to cover, but the thin spread keeps confidence modest.

Multiple books make FDU a small favorite (-2 to -2.5), implying a slight win-probability edge. Market consensus leans Knights in a close game.

Total of 162 is very high for NCAA; if the favorite controls the game, late pace typically slows and bench minutes increase, making the under more likely.

A 19.5-point spread in conference play is large, creating backdoor cover risk; foul-game variance and late possessions often keep margins under 20.

Consensus spread of Radford -19.5 across books implies a substantial home edge and high win probability.

Total sits 147.5–148.5 with balanced juice; if LIU controls, late pace may slow and a few empty trips push this just below the number.

Nine points is hefty for a road favorite in a conference game; projection leans LIU by two possessions (about 4–8), giving St. Francis (PA) the cover.

Market makes LIU a sizeable road favorite (-9), implying a clear power/efficiency edge; expect LIU to win outright even if it’s not a blowout.

One book lists 146.5 with the over priced shorter (1.87 vs 1.95), indicating a slight lean to the over; a close spread increases late-game foul/OT risk that can push totals above 147.

With a tight, consensus -4 and a competitive matchup implied, games often land within one or two possessions; taking Le Moyne +4 captures value in a likely close finish.

Consensus spread sits at -4 for the home side across books, implying roughly a ~58–62% win probability; home-court edge tilts the straight-up outcome toward CCSU.

Expect a modest pace and inconsistent shooting; 143.5 is slightly high for this matchup, projecting scores in the high 130s to low 140s.

Tight game profile; taking Albany +2.5 in what projects as a one-possession outcome provides a small edge.

Market makes NJIT a small favorite across books and home-court edge tips a close matchup their way.

Totals clustered at 162.5–163.5 with minor over lean suggest pace/scoring expectations are elevated; slight edge to the over.

Double-digit dogs in high-total games have more paths to cover; slight market shading toward +10.5 supports North Florida keeping it within the number.

Markets make Austin Peay a -10/-10.5 road favorite, implying a strong power-rating edge and high win probability.

Over 144.5 is juiced at some books and totals are also posted at 145.5, indicating market lean to the over.

Market shading toward Bethune-Cookman at -5.5 (lower price vs +5.5) suggests slight value on the favorite; prefer -5.5 to -6.

Home team favored by -5.5/-6 with neutral-to-slightly shaded juice implies a clear edge and ~65% win probability.

163.5 is a high bar; while Wright State plays fast, IUPUI’s limited scoring and possible late-game pace slowdown slightly favor the under.

At -11.5, Wright State’s pace and scoring efficiency should create separation; IUPUI’s turnover issues can fuel a double-digit margin, though backdoor risk keeps confidence moderate.

Wright State’s strong offense and home-court edge vs an IUPUI team that has consistently struggled on both ends makes the Raiders clear favorites.

Books slightly shade the over around 147; Charleston’s uptempo style and three-point volume point to a higher-possession game.

Charleston’s pace and perimeter scoring profile support margin; prefer -4.5 over -5 where available.

Market prices (~1.49) imply a solid edge and align with Charleston’s typical strength and depth versus a weaker A&T side.

UNCW tends to limit tempo and defend well; projected score range near 134–138 favors the under at 139.

Eight points is sizable for a conference matchup; UNCW likely controls but Monmouth’s pace and shot-making keep it within two to three possessions.

UNCW has been a top-tier CAA program with a strong home-court edge and steadier defense; Monmouth is improved but less consistent on the road.

Samford’s up-tempo, turnover-driven offense tends to boost possession count and transition points. Even with Citadel’s slower tendencies, 140 is modest for a game likely to feature scoring runs.

At -9.5, the matchup favors Samford’s turnover pressure and pace to generate separation. Road variance is a factor, but the stylistic edge points to a double-digit result.

Market has Samford -9.5 on the road, signaling a clear quality gap. Samford’s pressure/tempo profile typically creates efficient scoring runs that The Citadel struggles to match.

168.5 is very high for NCAA pace/efficiency norms; unless both teams play extreme tempo and shoot well, the median outcome trends under such an inflated number.

With a -1 spread, backing the marginal market favorite; close game profile, but small edge to William & Mary to cover.

Market has William & Mary -1 on the road, implying a slight edge despite home-court advantage for Campbell; near coin flip but lean to the away favorite.

153 is high for NCAA; if the favorite controls, late-game tempo and lower fouling can suppress scoring. No notable juice push toward the over.

With a balanced market at -8 and a relatively high total (153) reducing variance, the favorite is slightly more likely to extend to margin at home.

An 8-point home spread implies a clear edge; typical -8 converts to a strong win probability in the mid-to-high 70% range.

146 is a bit high for a conference matchup; a competitive, slower late-game tempo creates a slight tilt to the under.

With a 0 spread, siding with the home team mirrors the moneyline lean and expected incremental home advantage.

Pick'em line with a modest home-court edge; in near 50/50 spots the home side gains a slight win-rate bump.

Total of 149 is elevated; if Mercer leads, second-half pace and shot-clock usage can suppress scoring. In-conference familiarity tends to shave efficiency; slight lean to the under.

Double-digit in-conference spread with a relatively high total increases backdoor cover potential. Chattanooga’s profile as a perimeter-oriented team can keep it within the number even if Mercer controls the game.

Market has Mercer -10.5 at home, implying a strong favorite (roughly -600/-700 ML range). Home court plus consensus spread indicates Mercer wins outright more often than not.

Totals cluster near 234.5–235.5 with several books shading the under (lower payout on under), signaling a market lean to the under.

Market holds steady at Pacers -4/-4.5 with balanced juice; ML advantage suggests modest likelihood they win by multiple possessions.

Consensus pricing has Pacers around 1.52–1.56 (≈63% implied after de‑vig), indicating a clear edge over the Wizards.

Total sits 236–236.5 with balanced juice, signaling a high-scoring projection. With a competitive spread, end-game scoring dynamics slightly favor the over.

The spread is steady at -4.5/-5 with minor juice tilt toward the 76ers at some books, implying a median margin near two possessions. Slight lean to Philadelphia to cover.

Consensus pricing has Philadelphia around 1.53–1.56 at home (≈64–66% implied), consistent with a -4.5/-5 spread. Market alignment points to the 76ers as rightful favorites.

Totals cluster 228–230.5 with mixed juice; large favorite plus potential garbage-time slowdown and Cleveland’s defense tilt slightly to the under, especially at 230–230.5.

Market sits firmly at -14.5 with some slight juice toward Cleveland at a few books; blowout path exists but backdoor risk keeps confidence modest.

Consensus ML around 1.11–1.12 implies ~86–89% win probability; spread -14.5 corroborates a clear mismatch.

Totals cluster 215.5–216 with mild over juice at several books (e.g., O215.5 1.87–1.91). Market lean suggests a slight preference to the over, though variance keeps confidence modest.

Spread sits mostly at Rockets -2.5 with some books shading toward Houston (e.g., Hornets +2.5 up to 1.99). The small number correlates with the ML edge; slight value on the away side to cover.

Consensus market makes Houston a modest favorite (ML ~1.69–1.74, ~58–59% implied). Pricing is consistent across books, indicating a stable edge despite Houston being on the road.

Totals at 222.5 with some books shading the under (shorter price) suggests a modest market lean to the under; numbers are mostly balanced, so edge is slight.

Consensus spread sits -3.5/-4 near even juice, aligning with the moneyline edge. Preference is Knicks -3.5 where available for a slightly better margin of safety.

Market consensus puts Knicks ~1.57–1.61 (≈62–64% implied). Home court plus multiple books favoring NYK make them the likelier winner.

Likely higher pace with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides; 149 is reachable given typical ASUN scoring profiles.

Eight points is a sizable cushion for a home dog; expect a competitive game with Stetson’s offense keeping it within the number.

Market implying Central Arkansas around -8 even on the road suggests a stronger power rating; home court helps Stetson but not enough for the upset.

A 139.5 total is modest; these WAC foes project for a mid-tempo game with adequate efficiency and free-throw volume to reach the low 140s.

With -3.5 widely posted and little movement, UT-Arlington’s home-court edge and late-game foul/FT dynamics support a narrow cover.

Consensus -3.5 spread at near-even juice signals a modest but clear home advantage; travel spot slightly favors UT-Arlington to win outright.

Over 139 is consistently priced shorter (1.87–1.88) than the under (1.95–1.97), signaling a small market preference for an over outcome around this mid-range total.

Multiple books shade South Alabama -2.5 (1.87–1.90) vs Texas State +2.5 (1.95–1.99), indicating a slight market lean to the favorite covering a small number.

Consensus spread of -2.5 with shorter odds on the favorite implies a modest home edge; -2.5 typically converts to a mid-to-high 50s ML win probability.

A consensus 133.5 total points to a slower, half-court game. Small spread and late-season conference familiarity tend to suppress pace and efficiency; lean under with modest confidence.

With a consistent -2.5 across books, a Tenn-Martin win often clears this small number. Road variance keeps confidence modest, but the market edge favors the Skyhawks -2.5.

Consensus has Tenn-Martin -2.5 on the road, signaling a slight true-strength edge despite home court for Little Rock. In a near pick’em, follow the market’s lean to the Skyhawks.

Over 145.5 is consistently juiced (1.87–1.88) vs. under (1.95–1.97), signaling market lean to the over; expect enough possessions to push past the number.

Spread holding at -6 with even juice indicates an efficient number; in a conference matchup with a moderately high total, taking Southern Utah +6 has slight value.

Home team priced -6 across markets implies solid favoritism; consistent lines suggest Tarleton is the likely winner at home.

At a middling 150, conference familiarity and potential pace control lean slightly to the under; modest edge given even-priced totals.

Double-digit spreads in conference play are volatile; with a 150 total and likely swings, the underdog has reasonable paths to stay within the number or backdoor late.

Market has North Dakota as a double-digit home favorite, implying a clear rating edge and solid home-court advantage.

Total at 141 with slight market lean to the over, but pace and defensive tendencies in this matchup point to a grindier game landing under.

At +7.5 with a moderate total, the Lancers’ historically slower, half-court style increases the chance to keep it within two to three possessions.

Market has Utah Valley -7.5 at home, implying a solid win probability; home-court plus typical WAC home edge favors the Wolverines.

Books are slightly shading the Over and Hofstra’s offense vs Hampton’s defense points to mid-130s or higher; projected range ~135–137.

Gap in quality plus home court suggests Hofstra can extend to a double-digit margin; backdoor risk at +11.5 keeps confidence moderate.

Market implies ~88% win probability at 1.13 ML; Hofstra is the stronger home side and Hampton has struggled as a big road underdog.

Totals range 153.5–154.5; in-conference familiarity can dampen efficiency. If 154.5 is available, slight value to the under.

With spreads around pk and -1.5 at even money, a narrow home win is most likely; home-court swing supports Georgia State covering small numbers.

Market shows Georgia State as a slight home favorite (ML ~1.87, pk/-1.5 options); home court nudges a near coin-flip their way.

Juice leans to the over at 146.5 (1.87 over vs 1.95 under), indicating a modest market preference for points.

At +8.5 the home dog is shorter priced (1.83 vs 1.98 on -8.5), suggesting a slight edge for Louisiana to stay within the number.

Market makes Arkansas St a strong favorite (ML 1.24, spread -8/-8.5), implying ~80% win probability.

Totals cluster 232.5–234.5 with several books shading the under (lower payout on under, higher on over), implying a modest downward lean versus the high number.

Market centers on Toronto -6 with some shading toward the favorite at a few books (-5.5 at heavier juice, -6.5 appearing). This suggests slight value on the Raptors to win by multiple possessions.

Consensus pricing has Toronto around 1.48–1.50 (≈66–68% implied), with Toronto a road favorite of ~6 points across books, indicating a clear market edge.

150.5 is high for SWAC play; conference familiarity and inconsistent shooting tendencies point slightly to the under.

With a tight market around -2.5, this profiles as a one-possession game; Texas Southern +2.5 can cover even in a close loss.

Consensus line sits at UAPB -2.5, reflecting a modest home-court edge; expect a narrow home win.

Total set at 140 with even juice; SWAC matchups often feature modest pace and below-average shooting, nudging value to the under.

At 0 spread, cover equals win; market slightly favors the home side Florida A&M and home-court provides the tie-breaker.

Multiple pick’em lines shade toward Florida A&M (shorter price) and home-court typically worth a small edge in SWAC play.

153.5 is high; if Prairie View controls the game, MVSU’s offensive inefficiency and reduced late-game fouling risk keep scoring below the number.

Prairie View’s profile typically includes defensive pressure and better efficiency; MVSU often struggles to score consistently. Road spot lowers confidence slightly.

Consensus market makes Prairie View a sizable road favorite (-9), indicating a clear power-rating edge over MVSU.

161.5 is a very high NCAA total; despite OVC pace tendencies and slight over juice, this number is inflated relative to typical efficiency—lean under.

With a -3.5 number, home-court worth ~3 points and TSU rated slightly stronger; modest edge to the Tigers to win by two possessions.

Market makes TSU a small but clear favorite (-3.5) and they have the home-court edge versus a Lindenwood program that’s typically lower in the OVC pecking order.

Total steady around 135 with balanced vig and a short spread indicates a moderate pace and tighter possessions; slight lean under.

Some prices shade toward Tennessee Tech (+2 at shorter odds), suggesting market resistance to the road favorite; home dog value to keep it within one possession.

Consensus has SIUE a small road favorite (-2 to -2.5), implying a slight power-rating edge; expect a close game with the Cougars edging it.

Total sits around 137.5 with a tight spread, pointing to a moderately paced, competitive game; slight lean to the under with no strong market push either way.

Multiple listings show -2.5 with sweeter odds on the favorite, suggesting some resistance and value on the home dog; a close game profile favors Western Illinois covering +2.5/+3.

Market installs Southern Indiana as a small road favorite (-2.5 to -3 across books), implying a slight edge straight up.

Books are shading the under (1.87–1.88 vs 1.95–1.97 on the over). Expect a controlled pace and defensive tilt making 138 slightly high.

With a short -2, a straight-up win likely correlates with a cover; market still favors Morehead St despite some plus-money on EIU +2, suggesting a narrow ATS edge to the Eagles.

Consensus lines make Morehead St a small road favorite (-2) across books, implying a slight edge; matchup profile leans to their defense/rebounding in a close game.

Totals clustered 225.5–227 with more books pricing Over slightly shorter; modest lean to the Over at market numbers.

Market centers at Spurs -7.5 with several books shading the Suns +7.5 (shorter price), suggesting slight value on the dog to keep it within the number.

Consensus pricing 1.31–1.34 implies ~74–76% win probability; multiple books align with Spurs as solid home favorite.

Total at 139.5 sits near an average Big Sky pace/efficiency game. A competitive spread often leads to late free throws, and both teams profile as middling defensively, nudging the lean to the over.

With a tight number (-3.5) and standard juice, the market suggests a close game. Home-court advantage and late-game foul scenarios modestly favor Portland State to cover, but the margin is thin.

Market makes Portland State a small home favorite (-3.5), indicating a modest edge at home versus an Idaho team that has struggled on the road historically. Home-court and slightly stronger profile implied by the spread point to Portland State winning outright.

Alt totals at 162 are shaded to the under, indicating a true total near 163; 164 is high for NCAA—market signals a modest under lean.

Number sits mostly at -6.5, suggesting a fair line; with a slight lean to a lower total, the points gain value—South Dakota to keep it within two possessions.

Market has Denver -6/-6.5 at home, implying clear edge; home-court plus slightly stronger profile points to Denver to win outright.

Totals cluster 160–162 with some shading toward the under at 160; taking under at the higher 162 captures value in a number that is high for typical Big West tempos.

Consensus spread sits between -3.5 and -4.5 for UCSB; paired with a strong ML, winning margin slightly favors UCSB covering small numbers.

Market shows UCSB around 1.43 ML and -3.5/-4.5 spread, implying ~70% win probability with consistent support across books and home court edge.

151.5 is on the high side for a late-season conference matchup; team familiarity often dampens pace/efficiency, creating a small edge to the under.

With the spread at 0, covering equals winning outright. Given the market’s even pricing, the home-court advantage tips it slightly to Weber State.

Odds are a pick’em across books; in a near-coinflip, lean to the home side. Weber State typically enjoys a meaningful home-court edge in Big Sky play.

Totals clustered around 132–133.5 suggest a grind; North Texas’ tempo and defense favor a game landing in the high 120s/low 130s.

Low total (131.5–133.5) and North Texas’ slow pace increase the chance of a tight margin; Tulane +5.5 more likely to stay within two possessions.

Market implies ~73% win probability (1.36 ML, -5.5 spread). At home, North Texas’ defense-first profile gives them a solid edge.

Total set high at 151 in a matchup that tends to feature moderate pace; with a tight spread, possessions may be more deliberate, creating a small lean to the under.

Consistent -1.5 with near-even juice indicates Montana slightly superior; if they win, likelihood of clearing the short number is decent.

Market has Montana -1.5 on the road across books, implying a small but real power-rating edge despite Idaho State’s home court.

Totals sit 140.5–141.5 with balanced juice. UC Irvine’s profile typically leans defense/tempo control; on the road as a favorite, game script favors a slightly lower-scoring outcome.

With lines clustered at +6 to +6.5 for Long Beach St and some plus-money on UC Irvine -5.5/-6.5, there’s resistance at that number. Home court plus a likely two-possession game leans to Long Beach St covering.

Multiple books have UC Irvine -5.5 to -6.5 and ML ~1.31–1.34 (≈74–76% implied). Consistent favoritism even on the road signals a stronger team profile; market consensus points to UC Irvine winning outright.

High total (162.5–163) with multiple books subtly juicing the under (e.g., under 163 at 1.95–1.97). Sacramento State’s typical slower tempo can suppress possessions; hitting 163 requires above-average shooting from both sides.

EWU -1.5/-2 is shaded toward the favorite (e.g., -1.5 at 1.83 vs +1.5 at 1.98). If they win, probability of clearing a 1–2 point spread is reasonable, though road variance keeps confidence moderate.

Market makes EWU a small road favorite (-1.5 to -2, ML ~1.71 implying ~58% win). Their profile typically features stronger offense; slight but consistent edge across books.

Market center is ~151.5–152. Given these teams’ typical half-court profiles, 152 is slightly high; prefer under at the better number versus juiced over 150.5.

Consensus lines at -5 with some -5.5 shaded toward UC Riverside suggest a median margin near 6; modest lean to the home side covering -5.

Market has UC Riverside around 1.33 ML (≈72% fair after vig), with consistent -5/-5.5 spreads indicating a solid home edge.

Total at 153 is elevated for a Big West matchup. In a tight, near pick’em game, possessions can compress and scoring variance dampens until late fouling; slight value to the under.

With a -1 spread and balanced odds, if Fullerton wins they likely cover. Small home-court advantage and end-game fouling dynamics marginally favor the home -1 over the road +1.

Market has a near pick’em with the home side -1 at near even juice across multiple listings, implying a slight home-court edge. In a coin-flip matchup, default to the home team.

Totals cluster around 217 with some under shading at 216.5/217.5, indicating a slight market lean to the under in a game with a controlled pace profile.

Consistent pricing at -3.5/-4 suggests a modest edge for Boston to win by two possessions; small favorite strength aligns with cover probability slightly above 50%.

Market consensus makes Boston a clear road favorite (ML ~1.59–1.63; spread -3.5/-4), implying ~60%+ win probability.

Total sits mostly at 225.5 with several books shading the under (shorter price). Large spread raises blowout/late pace-down risk, modestly favoring the under.

Market spreads cluster at -12/ -12.5 with some books juiced to -11.5 for Orlando, indicating a lean to the favorite covering despite road status.

Consensus pricing has Orlando around 1.14–1.17 (≈83–87% implied), with a double-digit spread (-12/ -12.5) reinforcing a clear edge.

Consensus total sits around 226 with several books slightly favoring the under (e.g., U226 at 1.87–1.88), suggesting a small lean to the under.

Denver -4/-4.5 is juiced at multiple books (e.g., -4 at 1.87 vs +4 at 1.95), indicating a modest edge for the away favorite to cover.

Market makes Denver a road favorite at -4/-4.5 with ML 1.54–1.61 (≈62–65% implied), and several books show slight shading toward Denver.

Total of 158.5–159.5 is high for this matchup; with a double-digit spread, blowout script and slower late pace favor the under (plus better price at 159.5).

Multiple books shade -11.5/-12 toward Hawai'i (lower payout on the favorite side), suggesting a modest edge to cover at home.

Market implies ~90% win probability at 1.11 ML and Hawai'i’s strong home-court/travel edge vs. Cal Poly.

Slight shading to the under at 146.5 and blowout/late-game slowdown dynamics support a modest lean to the under.

The number is large for a road favorite; pricing (Ball State +13.5 at 1.87 vs Akron -13.5 at 1.95) subtly favors the home dog and allows backdoor cover potential.

Akron’s 1.08 moneyline implies ~93% win probability, reinforced by a -13.5 spread even on the road.

Multiple books lean under at 129 (under juiced), and 131 is widely available—signals an overall market tilt to the under.

With a relatively low total (~129-131), points are at a premium; +7 for Niagara has slightly better value in a slower-paced matchup.

Market has Mt. St. Mary’s around a 7-point home favorite, implying a clear win probability edge.

MAAC teams often play slower, and Manhattan’s offense is inconsistent. A 139 total looks a touch high given likely half-court pace and defensive tilt.

Marist -5 is supported by matchup dynamics: better defense and fewer scoring droughts relative to Manhattan. Road variance tempers confidence, but endgame free throws can extend margin.

Market installs Marist as a road favorite (-5), implying a clear edge. Manhattan has tended to struggle offensively, while Marist profiles as steadier in half-court play and defense.

Total is inflated (155.5–157.5); without above-average pace and shooting from both sides, outcomes more often land below the top number.

Market centers around -7, indicating a modest but clear edge; with home court and implied quality gap, Oakland is slightly more likely to win by 8+.

Decimal odds of 1.31 imply ~76% win probability; market has Oakland a solid home favorite by multiple possessions.

156 is a high bar; rivalry/local familiarity and late-season adjustments can temper pace/efficiency. Slight lean under at this number.

Fairfield -5 is uniform across books with some 1.94 available, offering slight value on the favorite to pull away late at home despite higher-total variance.

Consistent -5 spread at near-even prices implies Fairfield as a solid home favorite (roughly -200 ML range). Home court and modest quality edge point to Fairfield winning outright.

Totals sit 152.5–153 with mild over shading; expectation is a moderately high-paced, offense-leaning game.

With a tiny number (-1 to -1.5) in a tight matchup, Milwaukee +1/+1.5 has slight value and benefits from 1-point outcomes.

Market has Detroit a small home favorite (1.73 ML ≈55% fair after vig). In a near coin-flip, lean to the home side.

Total at 133 suggests a slower, half-court pace and modest offensive efficiency; slight lean under despite late-game foul risk.

With a -1.5 line, a Rider win likely correlates with a cover; small home-court boost in a tight game tips it toward the Broncs.

Market makes Rider a slight favorite (-1.5) in a near coin flip; lean to the home side with small home-court edge in a low-total MAAC matchup.

Under is juiced across listings and MAAC games often run slower; 140 looks slightly high given market signals toward the under.

With a 0 spread (PK), the side that wins covers; lean to the home team in what projects as a tight, defense-tilted game.

Pick’em pricing suggests a near coin flip; slight lean to the home side with typical home-court edge in a low-possession MAAC matchup.

Expect a slower-paced, half-court game typical of Ivy play; limited possessions and defensive emphasis point slightly to under 129 barring late foul inflation.

With the line around +1, taking the marginally better, more consistent offense in a tight Ivy matchup provides a small edge.

Near pick’em pricing with a slight efficiency and shooting edge to Princeton; historically stronger late-game execution even on the road.

165.5 is an elevated NCAA total; sustained elite efficiency is required. Minor shooting regression or late-game slowdown from a leading favorite can keep it under.

With a high total (165.5) increasing scoring variance and the spread near the projected margin, taking VCU +9.5 has value to stay within single digits even in a loss.

The 1.19 moneyline implies roughly an 84% win probability, reinforced by a -9.5 spread indicating a clear home edge.

Total 241.5–242.5 is high; under is slightly juiced at 241.5, indicating a modest market lean to the under.

Line sits at +4.5 with some books shading Utah (1.87), suggesting a slight edge for Jazz to keep it within two possessions even if Memphis wins.

Market has Memphis ~1.54–1.59 (≈62–65% implied) at home with a -4.5 spread; consensus lean to Grizzlies straight up.

High total (235.5–236.5) combined with a big favorite raises garbage-time/pace-down risk late; modest lean to the under at these numbers.

With a large spread (-11.5 to -12.5), underdogs historically cover slightly more often; backdoor potential in a blowout favors Dallas +12/+12.5, and pricing leans slightly to the dog.

Market has Minnesota as a heavy home favorite (1.15–1.17 ≈ 85% implied) across multiple lines, indicating strong win likelihood.

Totals set around 130.5–132.5 suggest a slow, defense-oriented game. Merrimack’s pace and zone tendencies plus Siena’s historically inconsistent offense point to a game landing below the low 130s.

With the spread at -3 to -3.5 and slight juice favoring Merrimack, their pressure defense can create enough extra possessions to win by two possessions; low total keeps confidence moderate.

Market makes Merrimack a -3/-3.5 home favorite with ~1.52 ML (~66% implied). Home-court plus a defense-first, turnover-driven style gives them a small but clear edge.

Total 148.5 with a double-digit favorite can trend under if pace slows late and the dog struggles to hit its implied ~69 points.

Line of -10.5 in a rivalry spot invites backdoor risk; projected scoring split (~79.5–69) gives Indiana a decent chance to stay within the number.

At 1.15 ML (≈87% implied) and at home, Purdue is a strong favorite; market signals a clear class and home-court edge.

Total 224.5–225.5 aligns with two capable offenses; slight tilt to a game landing mid-to-high 220s.

Consensus line sits -3.5/-4. With ML edge to Pelicans, slight lean to Pelicans covering small number at home.

Market implies ~60–64% for Pelicans at home (ML 1.57–1.65). Slight but consistent favorite across books.

152 is elevated for conference play; if the favorite controls, tempo can moderate late. Even pricing on both sides suggests no strong over signal—small lean to the under.

With a high total (152) increasing variance and backdoor potential, +8 offers value to the underdog in a conference matchup; no clear market move off 8 suggests taking the points.

Consensus spread of -8 with even juice implies a solid home favorite; market-implied strength and home-court edge point to Miami (OH) winning outright.

Under 3.5 is juiced (~1.65) while 3.25 is near even; pricing centers around ~3.2 goals, favoring the under.

Chelsea -1.5 at ~1.65 and -1.75 at ~1.83 suggest an expected margin around 1.6–1.7 goals; market leans to a 2+ goal win.

Consensus ML 1.21–1.25 implies ~80–83% win probability for Chelsea; multiple books align on a strong home favorite.

Over 2.5 is heavily juiced (1.69–1.72) and 2.75 sits near evens (1.91/1.91), implying an expected goal total around 2.7–2.8. Market lean supports Over.

Brentford -0.25 priced ~1.82–1.83 versus Brighton +0.25 ~2.02–2.04 signals a slight edge for Brentford to at least split on the quarter-ball. Competing +0.5 at 1.70 for Brighton suggests a tight match, keeping confidence moderate.

Across books Brentford are modest home favorites (2.05–2.15 vs 3.1–3.4), and AH shading (-0.25/-0.5) tilts toward the home side. Draw risk tempers confidence.

Over 2.5 is generally shorter (1.80–1.89) than the under, indicating expected goals lean above 2.5.

Spread sits between Aston Villa -0.5 (1.74) and -0.75 (~2.02–2.05), implying a ~0.6–0.7 goal edge; reasonable chance Villa win by at least one and often by two.

Consensus ML around 1.71–1.80 implies ~56–59% win probability; market positions Villa as clear home favorite over Leeds.

Total 146.5 is moderate-high, but big favorite scripts can suppress late-game pace. If Ole Miss covers, a slightly slower, more half-court game leans under.

Double-digit road chalk (-12.5) is vulnerable to home-court variance and late backdoor covers. Taking Ole Miss +12.5 to keep it within the number.

Market has Florida around 1.11 (~90% implied). Large road-favorite pricing signals a clear quality gap; expect Florida to win outright.

Over 2.5 is short across the board (≈1.54–1.56) and Over 3 is near even money (≈1.90), implying an expected goals total around 3 and a higher likelihood of 3+ goals.

Bournemouth +0.5 is heavily shaded (1.5) while West Ham -0.5 is a plus price (2.42); PK is close to even, pointing to Bournemouth covering common spreads more often.

Markets show a near coin flip on PK (≈1.91 each) but Bournemouth +0.5 is strongly favored (1.5), indicating higher avoid-defeat probability; slight lean to the away side to edge it.

Both teams trend to half-court offense and solid defense; the spread/total imply a 73–62 type game. Pace and shot profile favor the under unless late fouling inflates scoring.

With a relatively low total (134.5), there are fewer possessions, making a double-digit cover tougher. Cincinnati’s defensive, physical style gives them a fair chance to keep it within +10.5.

Kansas is a strong home team and the market makes them a heavy favorite (~1.17). Home-court edge at Allen Fieldhouse and superior efficiency profiles point to a straight-up win.

148.5 is relatively high; rivalry intensity and potential half-court possessions point slightly toward a game landing in the mid-140s.

With a short number (-3.5) and home-court edge, if Vanderbilt wins outright they often cover; the line suggests a slight but real home advantage.

The market makes Vanderbilt a small home favorite at -3.5, implying a modest win probability edge bolstered by home-court advantage in a rivalry spot.

Totals shaded to the over (2.75 at ~1.83, 2.5 over ~1.63) suggest an expectation near 2.8–2.9 goals; value leans to over 2.75.

Asian handicap shows St. Louis City SC -0.25 at ~1.83 vs Charlotte +0.25 at ~2.00, signaling a small but clear edge to the home side; -0.25 provides partial draw protection.

Across books the home side sits ~2.00–2.10 vs Charlotte ~3.10–3.45, implying a modest home edge. Market consensus and Asian lines back STL as slight favorite.

Under 3.5 is strongly juiced (~1.67) and 3.25 totals are near even; market midpoint ~3.2 goals favors the under.

Markets set City -1.25 to -1.5 near even money; pricing implies a decent chance of a 2+ goal win to cover.

Consistent heavy favorite across books (1.42–1.50 implies ~67–70%+). Strong home edge vs. Newcastle.

Clash of Arizona pace vs Houston tempo control; at 141.5–142.5 the defensive/pace drag from Houston leans to an under; best number is under 142.5.

With the line around -4.5 to -5, Houston’s home edge and defense tilt to a 5–7 point win range; prefer -4.5 at equal price.

Market implies ~69–70% for Houston and they have strong home-court plus a defense-first profile that can mute Arizona’s efficiency.

161.5 is lofty; if Arkansas controls, late pace may slow and Missouri’s offense may not sustain enough to clear the number.

Arkansas’ projected superiority plus home floor suggests a double-digit margin, though the high total adds volatility.

A -10.5 home spread implies a strong market edge and high SU win probability; home-court advantage favors Arkansas.

Under 3 is favored (≈1.80) while Over 2.5 is juiced to the over, indicating an expectation around 2.7–2.9 goals; slight lean to Under 3 (with push at 3).

The -0.5 line on Cincinnati is shaded toward the home side (1.77–1.82), aligning with the moneyline edge; cover requires a win.

Markets consistently price FC Cincinnati ~1.76–1.81 vs Atlanta 3.8–4.2, implying a clear home edge (~55–58% win probability).

At 148.5 and equal juice, lean under based on a likely half-court tempo and defensive pressure keeping possessions and efficiency in check.

With a short -1.5, a typical Michigan win likely covers; pricing suggests a meaningful power-rating edge despite Duke’s venue.

Market makes Michigan a slight road favorite (-1.5, 1.80 ML), implying ~53% win probability even with Duke’s home court; siding with the market edge.

Totals shaded to Under at 2.75 (1.83–1.96) and 2.5 (1.92–1.96), implying an expectation near 2.6 goals; profiles a tighter match.

Orlando -0.5 sits around 1.90–1.95 across books; pricing suggests >50% cover probability consistent with home advantage.

Market has Orlando ~1.90–1.95 vs RBNY ~3.6–3.9, implying a clear home edge; multiple books align and -0.5 prices mirror this.

Over 2.5 heavily juiced (1.57–1.58) and Over 3 near even (1.95) suggest an expectation around 3 goals. Strong home favorite profile points to a higher-scoring game.

Asian handicap -0.75 at ~1.81–1.82 signals expectation of a 1+ goal win with fair chance to extend to 2. Market implies Vancouver more likely to earn at least a half-win on this line.

Consistent market favoring Vancouver (1.56–1.65 implies ~60–64%); RSL priced 4.4–5.3 across books. Home side clearly rated stronger.

Over 2.5 is juiced at multiple books (≈1.77–1.83), implying a >55% likelihood; market expects a match with goals given D.C.’s tendency to allow chances and Union’s capable attack.

Union -0.5 is near even money (≈1.87–1.91), aligning with the moneyline edge; backing the stronger side to win outright and cover -0.5.

Consensus pricing has Union as clear road favorites (≈1.83–1.91 vs D.C. 3.65–4.00), indicating >52% implied win chance; historical consistency favors Union, though away status limits confidence.

157.5 is high; while pace should be up, both sides have length and pressure to disrupt efficiency, and late-game half-court + whistle can cap scoring.

At -2.5, if Auburn wins they often clear by 3+ via late free throws; modest edge from home-court in a near pick’em.

Market makes Auburn a small home favorite; Neville Arena home-court plus pressure defense and shot-making typically travel well at home.

Market centers around 2.6 expected goals: Under 2.75 is slightly favored (1.85) while Over 2.5 is juiced, pointing to a lean under 2.75.

Asian handicap pricing favors Toronto +0.25 (1.80) over Dallas -0.25 (2.05), suggesting draw resistance and value on the away side to cover.

Home side priced shorter across books (~2.23–2.35 vs 2.80–3.10), indicating a modest edge at home.

Under 2.5 consistently shorter (≈1.77–1.87) than Over across books, signaling a lower-scoring expectation.

Asian line shows Austin -0.25 at plus money (~2.04) vs Minnesota +0.25 ~1.80, implying market tilt toward Minnesota covering via draw or narrow result.

Odds across books slightly favor Austin (≈2.25–2.36 vs 2.85–3.15), indicating a modest home edge; draw risk keeps confidence moderate.

Over 2.5 is heavily juiced (1.58–1.65) and Over 3 is near even (≈1.98), implying an expected total around 3+ goals; the goals side is favored, so lean over.

With Nashville -0.75 around 1.99, the market is near 50/50 on a multi-goal win and grants a half-win on a 1-goal victory; combined with the -0.5 at 1.72, lean to Nashville covering.

Consensus pricing has Nashville 1.70–1.77 vs New England 3.9–4.6, implying ~58–60% for the home side; MLS home-field and market strength favor Nashville.

Over is juiced at both 2.75 (≈1.84–1.85) and 2.5 (≈1.63–1.64), signaling an expected goals environment closer to 3.

At 0 (DNB), Houston is priced lower (≈1.86 vs 1.96), indicating a small edge for the home side to win/cover with draw protection.

Market is a near pick’em, but several books shade Houston slightly shorter and the PK price favors the home side.

Totals around 3 with over 2.5 heavily juiced and under 3.5 juiced imply an expected goals tally just above 3; both sides have strong attacking talent, tilting slightly to the over.

At -0.25 near even money, the market leans marginally toward LAFC; home advantage and higher win probability vs draw make LAFC more likely to cover the quarter goal.

Market consistently prices LAFC as a slight home favorite (ML ~2.10–2.19 vs Miami ~2.85–3.20), and home edge plus more balanced profile tips it their way.

Total of 155.5 is elevated by BYU’s pace, but Iowa State’s elite defense and turnover creation typically suppress efficiency. Expected scoring bands more often land in the high 140s to low 150s than above 155.

At -3.5, ISU’s ball pressure and half-court defense can create separation if BYU’s threes don’t fall early. BYU’s shooting variance keeps this thinner than the ML edge, but ISU projects to win by two possessions slightly more often.

Market favors Iowa State on the road, reflecting their defense/turnover edge against BYU’s three-heavy, high-variance offense. If ISU controls possessions and limits clean perimeter looks, they have the matchup edge despite Provo’s home-court.

Totals are shaded under: Under 3.25 slightly favored (1.89) and Under 3.5 heavily juiced (1.62–1.66), implying an expectation near 3.1–3.3 goals.

Asian handicap -0.5 on San Jose is around 1.85–1.91, aligning with their moneyline edge; backing the home side to win and cover.

Markets make San Jose a solid home favorite (1.79–1.91) versus SKC (3.3–3.95), indicating higher win probability with home edge.

Over is juiced at 2.75 (1.86–1.87) and 2.5 (1.65), implying an expected goals figure near or above 3. MLS tendencies and pricing support an over lean.

With Columbus shaded on the Asian line (-0.25 at ~2.00) and shorter ML, the marginal advantage suggests the Crew to cover the small handicap more often than not.

Market makes Columbus a slight road favorite (ML ~2.30 vs ~2.90 for Portland) and prices -0.25 near even money, indicating a small edge to the Crew.

Over 3 (1.82) vs Under 3 (2.02) indicates slight lean to 3+ goals; with 3.5 juiced to the under, 3 is a common outcome—Over 3 offers push protection.

Market shades CF Montreal +1.25 (1.82–1.83) vs SD -1.25 (~2.01), and -1.5 on SD is +money, suggesting 1-goal SD win or closer more likely.

Consistent heavy favorite across books (1.42–1.47 implies ~68–70%); home edge and Montreal’s long travel spot.

Over 2.5 is heavily juiced (1.68–1.72) and Over 2.75 near even, signaling an expectation above ~2.6–2.7 goals.

Liverpool -0.5 priced around 1.78–1.83 mirrors the moneyline edge; market indicates they are more likely to win by at least one.

Consensus odds have Liverpool as solid favorites (1.71–1.85), implying a mid-50s+ win probability across books.

Totals markets shade under 2.5 strongly (U2.5 ~1.66–1.67; O2.5 ~2.10–2.18). Implied mean ~2.3 goals favors under 2.5.

On the 0 (DNB) line Sunderland is priced shorter, indicating a modest edge to avoid defeat; push on draw, win covers.

Across books Sunderland is a slight home favorite (pk: 1.87–1.88 vs 1.94–1.98; ML mostly shorter for Sunderland). Near coin-flip with small home edge.

Total set at 2.5 with near-even pricing (1.87–1.93 both sides); slight lean to a lower-scoring game, edge is small.

Primary spread around Palace -0.5 (1.58) with alt -1 (~2.1); more likely Palace win by at least one, modest chance to win by 2+.

Consensus ML 1.57–1.65 vs Wolves 5.0–5.8 and -0.5 at ~1.58 imply Palace ~60–63% after vig; market strongly favors home side.

Over 2.5 priced 1.74–1.83 (≈55–60% implied) and this rivalry’s typically open, attacking profile point to >2.5 goals being slightly more likely.

Arsenal -0.5 at ~1.52 (~65% implied) and -1 near 1.94–1.97 suggest a high likelihood of an away win; the safer cover is Arsenal -0.5.

Aggregate prices (Arsenal 1.48–1.57 vs Tottenham 5.7–6.75) imply ~62–66% away win probability after vig; market strongly favors Arsenal despite Spurs’ home field.

Over is shaded at both 2.75 (1.88–1.89) and 2.5 (1.67–1.74), implying an expected goals tally near 3 in a typically high-scoring MLS spot.

At Asian handicap 0 (DNB), the juice favors LA (1.85 vs 1.98), suggesting marginal value on the home side with push protection on a draw.

Market is near pick’em but pk pricing (LA 0 at 1.85 vs NYCFC 1.98) and occasional shorter ML (2.35–2.47) lean to slight home edge.

Totals show a slight lean under: Under 3 at 1.87 vs Over 3 at 1.95 and Under 3.5 at 1.57. Market projects around 3 goals with a modest under bias.

Seattle -1 at 1.78–1.79 with -1.5 at 2.21 implies a meaningful chance to win by 2+; push protection on -1 makes the home side the preferred angle.

Market has Seattle at 1.42–1.49 (≈67–70% implied) versus Colorado 5.5–6.0 (≈17–18%). Strong and consistent favorite pricing at home.

Over 2.5 is heavily shaded (1.69–1.73) and Over 2.75 is near even (1.91–1.93), indicating an expected goals tally around 2.8–2.9; lean Over.

United -0.5 is priced ~1.88–1.93, mirroring the moneyline edge; taking the away side to win and cover the -0.5 Asian handicap.

Market has United a small road favorite (1.91–1.95) vs Everton (3.5–3.9), implying ~52% win probability; multiple books align with a modest away edge.

A favored home team controlling pace and limiting the underdog’s scoring tends to nudge toward an under, despite empty-net variance late.

With a strong favorite, the standard -1.5 puck line often covers less than 50% due to frequent one-goal games; Flyers +1.5 is slightly more likely to cash.

Decimal odds of 1.49 imply roughly a 64% chance after removing vig; market clearly favors the home side.

Both teams typically play at a moderate-to-high event pace with offensive upside; close lines suggest competitive trading of goals. Slight lean to the over.

Assuming standard NHL puck line of ±1.5: with a tight moneyline, one-goal games are likely. That favors New Jersey +1.5 to cover more often than Buffalo -1.5.

Market makes Buffalo a slight favorite (1.83 vs 1.97; ~52% implied after vig). In a near pick’em, lean with the modest away edge reflected by the odds.

Both offenses have high-end scoring and power-play upside; game profile skews toward higher event counts and 6+ goals.

With a heavy favorite, the win distribution gives a fair chance to clear -1.5 (including empty-net potential), though NHL variance keeps confidence moderate.

Market makes Tampa a strong home favorite (1.5 ≈ 67% implied). Home ice and matchup context suggest they win more often than not.

These teams often play lower-event, goalie-driven games. With Dallas favored and a likely tight margin, the game script leans under typical totals (5.5/6).

Assuming the standard puck line (-1.5 for the home favorite), Dallas is more likely to win than to win by 2+. NHL parity produces many 1-goal results; Seattle +1.5 is the likelier cover even if Dallas wins.

Market implies ~66% for Dallas (1.51 odds). Strong home edge and superior two-way profile vs a middling Seattle attack make Dallas the rightful favorite.

With typical NHL totals around 6–6.5, a favored, offensively capable side plus empty-net scenarios tilt the game slightly toward 6+ goals.

Assuming the standard NHL puck line of ±1.5, underdogs in this price range cover +1.5 slightly more often due to frequent one-goal results.

Market makes Colorado a clear favorite (1.61 odds ≈ 59–62% implied). Favored road profile suggests they win more often than not.

Profile suggests a tighter game; many similar matchups land 5-6 goals, leaning under common 6/6.5 totals.

With a modest favorite, the -1.5 puck line covers less often; home +1.5 more likely to hit.

Odds at 1.70 imply a modest edge (~58%); backing the market-favored road side.

Rival divisional game with strong two-way structures; expect tighter pace and goaltending to keep goals down versus a typical NHL total.

Assuming the standard NHL puck line (-1.5 for the favorite), near coin-flip games often land by one; VGK +1.5 is more likely to cover.

Market makes LA a slight favorite (home ice + shorter price at 1.85); in a tight matchup, small edge to the Kings.

Oilers’ pace and PP typically drive higher-scoring games; Ducks’ defensive volatility points to goals, leaning over typical 6–6.5 totals.

Assuming the standard ±1.5 puck line, the relatively tight ML suggests a high chance of a 1-goal game; Ducks +1.5 more likely to cover even in a loss.

Odds imply ~57% for EDM; their elite offense and special teams give them an edge even on the road against a rebuilding Anaheim.

Over 2.5 is favored at 1.75–1.76 across quotes, implying elevated goal expectancy (roughly 2.7+). Likeliest script is a 1–2 type result.

Aston Villa -0.5 at ~1.76 mirrors the moneyline edge; pricing implies a higher likelihood Villa wins by a single goal.

Market clusters Villa around 1.77–1.78 (implied ~56–57%) versus Wolves 4.2–4.5 (~22–24%), indicating a clear away edge consistent across books.

Over 2.5 is favored (1.78–1.82 vs Under 1.93–1.96), indicating a market expectation of goals. Follow the juice to the over.

The -0.5 (1.87) mirrors the moneyline; slight shading to Sunderland +0.5 (1.83) suggests draw risk, but with the home win lean, Bournemouth -0.5 is the side—low confidence.

Market makes Bournemouth a modest home favorite (1.88–1.95 ≈ 51–53% implied to win). Sunderland priced 3.75–3.90 signals underdog status. Lean home side.

Under 3.5 priced shorter (1.69–1.75) vs Over 3.5 (2.05) indicates a fair probability near 54–55% for the under; market shape and correlated spread lean support a tighter scoreline.

West Ham +1.5 is shaded (1.74) versus Liverpool -1.5 (1.97), implying the underdog is slightly more likely to cover; an expected lower-scoring game increases chances of a ≤1-goal margin.

Consensus pricing around 1.36–1.38 implies ~83–85% fair win probability after removing vig; strong home edge and market agreement favor Liverpool.

Totals 2.5 priced near even suggests a fair line; with EPL scoring baseline near 2.7–2.8 and an away favorite dynamic, slight value lean to over 2.5.

Brentford -0.5 at ~1.78 implies ~56% to win outright; matches the moneyline edge, so Brentford to cover -0.5.

Market averages put Brentford around 1.80–1.83 (~55% implied) vs Burnley ~4.0–4.3 (~24%), and multiple books align on Brentford as clear away favorite.

Over 2.5 at 1.76–1.77 vs under 1.95–2.02 gives a ~52–53% fair chance for the over; slight market lean to goals.

Newcastle -0.5 at ~1.68 normalizes to ~55% to cover; pricing aligns with a narrow home win.

Books price Newcastle 1.65–1.70 (two-way), implying ~56–58% fair win chance; consistent market favorite at home over Everton.

Over 2.5 at 1.61–1.63 (~61–62% implied) suggests an expectation of 3+ goals, with City’s attack likely to generate chances.

City -0.5 at ~1.58 essentially mirrors the ML; they’re clearly favored to win outright and thus cover -0.5.

Consensus pricing 1.57–1.62 implies ~62–64% win probability; City’s quality edge and market alignment favor an away win.

Over 2.5 priced near 1.71 vs under ~2.02–2.10 signals a market tilt to goals (≈58–60% implied).

Tottenham +0.5 around 1.60 implies they avoid defeat more often than not; market shape favors Spurs to cover the half‑goal.

Across books, Fulham ~2.28–2.35 vs Tottenham ~2.93–3.00 indicates a higher home win probability; however, the market’s +0.5 lean to Spurs suggests notable draw risk.

Over 2.5 is favored (1.79–1.80), consistent with Brighton’s open style and both teams’ likelihood to trade chances.

Forest +0.5 is juiced (~1.73), implying higher draw/cover probability against a volatile Brighton side.

Market shade is toward Brighton at ~2.0 at home and they project the stronger attack, but draw risk keeps confidence moderate.

Over 2.5 is juiced (1.61–1.66), implying ~60%+; match profile suggests a 2–1 or 3–0 type result more often than not.

Manchester United -0.5 at ~1.56 mirrors the moneyline; a United win covers, aligning with the market’s strong lean to the home side.

Odds around 1.57–1.59 imply ~63–64% win chance; home advantage and superior talent profile favor United over Palace.

Over 2.5 at 1.78–1.79 implies ~55–56% probability; market leans to goals in an open matchup.

Arsenal -0.5 at ~1.60 mirrors the ML edge; if Arsenal win, they cover. Lines are consistently short on Arsenal.

Market prices (1.61–1.65) imply ~62% win chance; consensus support for Arsenal at home with Chelsea a sizable underdog.

Under 54.5 is juiced (1.87 vs 1.95), indicating a small market lean to the under after adjusting for vig.

At +3.5, NC State is slightly favored to cover based on price shading (1.87 vs 1.95), implying a close game where the points matter.

Market-implied (vig-adjusted) probability ~59% for Virginia at 1.62 suggests a modest edge for the home side.

Under is shaded (1.87 vs 1.95), suggesting a modest market lean to a game landing below 50.5.

Juice leans to TCU -7.5 (1.87 vs 1.95), indicating slight market preference despite the 7.5 hook.