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NCAA Basketball 2/21/2026 at 11:30 PM

Michigan Wolverines

@

Duke Blue Devils

Spread

Duke Blue Devils +3 / Michigan Wolverines -3

85%

consensus

Michigan Wolverines covers

13 models · avg conf 59%

Duke Blue Devils covers (15%) Michigan Wolverines covers (85%)
2 models · avg 54% avg 59% · 11 models

Duke Blue Devils covers

GLM-5
55%

Duke +1.5 at home offers value in a tightly lined game. Home court advantage in NCAA basketball is substantial, particularly at Duke. The narrow 1.5-point spread suggests a competitive game that could come down to the final possession. Getting points at home in a near pick'em situation is advantageous, and the 1.89 odds provide slightly better value than the Michigan side.

Duke +1.5 at home offers value in what projects as a tight game. The spread is only 1.5 points, indicating an extremely close matchup. Home court advantage in college basketball typically provides 3-4 points of value, yet Duke is still getting points. This tight line suggests the game could go either way, making the home dog with points attractive.

Michigan Wolverines covers

GPT-4o
65%

Michigan Wolverines are favored to win by more than 1.5 points. The odds for Michigan covering the spread are slightly better than Duke, suggesting confidence in Michigan's ability to win by at least 2 points.

Michigan is favored by 1.5 points. With their implied advantage, they are likely to win by more than 1.5 points, making the away (Michigan) the expected spread cover.

Grok 3
60%

Michigan Wolverines are favored with a -1.5 spread at slightly better odds (1.93) than Duke's 1.5 (1.89). This indicates a slight edge for Michigan to win by at least 2 points.

Grok 4
60%

Michigan is favored by 1.5 points with consistent odds across repeats, suggesting they are expected to win by a small margin and cover the spread.

Michigan is favored by -1.5 points, and their odds to cover are slightly better than Duke's. This aligns with their moneyline favoritism, suggesting they will win by at least 2 points.

With a spread of -1.5 for Michigan, they are expected to win by at least 2 points, which aligns with their recent form and statistical advantage.

Michigan is favored by 1.5 points with slightly better odds (1.93 vs 1.89), indicating the market expects them to win by at least a field goal. In a tight spread like this, the favorite covering at -1.5 aligns with their moneyline advantage. The small spread suggests a competitive game, but Michigan should edge it out.

Michigan is favored by 1.5 points despite playing away. The spread odds (1.93 for Michigan -1.5 vs 1.89 for Duke +1.5) indicate slight market lean toward Michigan covering. The away team being favored suggests Michigan's strength outweighs home court disadvantage, though it's a tight line suggesting competitive matchup.

The -1.5 spread is tight; lines consistently priced Michigan as a slim favorite. Expect a close game where Michigan is slightly more likely to cover, though home-court for Duke keeps confidence modest.

The spread is very tight at -1.5 for Michigan. Given that they are favored to win the game outright, it is highly probable that if they do win, it will be by more than 1.5 points. The odds slightly favor this outcome as well (1.93 for Michigan cover vs 1.89 for Duke).

GPT-5
52%

With a short -1.5, a typical Michigan win likely covers; pricing suggests a meaningful power-rating edge despite Duke’s venue.

Moneyline

Duke Blue Devils +2.2 / Michigan Wolverines +1.69

100%

consensus

Michigan Wolverines wins

13 models · avg conf 62%

Duke Blue Devils wins (0%) Michigan Wolverines wins (100%)
0 models · avg 0% avg 62% · 13 models

Michigan Wolverines wins

GPT-4o
70%

The betting odds favor Michigan slightly with a lower payout on their win (1.8) compared to Duke (2.04), indicating the market believes Michigan has a higher probability of winning. Additionally, Michigan's -1.5 spread suggests they are considered the stronger team.

Michigan is the favorite on the moneyline (1.8) with a higher implied win probability (~56%) compared to Duke (2.04) (~49%). The spread also shows Michigan as the favored side, suggesting a higher likelihood of winning the game.

Grok 4
65%

Michigan is favored with lower moneyline odds (1.8 vs 2.04), indicating higher implied probability of winning based on betting lines.

Grok 3
65%

Michigan Wolverines have a lower moneyline odds of 1.8 compared to Duke Blue Devils at 2.04, indicating bookmakers favor Michigan. This suggests Michigan may have a stronger recent performance or key player advantages.

Michigan has a strong away record and the current odds suggest they are favored. Their recent performance indicates they can secure a win against Duke.

Market favors Michigan (moneyline 1.80, implied probability ~56%) and the spread (-1.5) also points to a narrow Michigan edge. Small margin lowers certainty, but consensus lines favor Michigan.

Michigan is favored across all betting markets with moneyline odds of 1.8 vs Duke's 2.04, implying approximately 55.6% win probability. The market consensus clearly favors the Wolverines, suggesting they have the edge in this matchup despite Duke being the home team.

Michigan is favored on the moneyline with lower odds (1.8) compared to Duke (2.04), indicating they are perceived as more likely to win outright.

The betting market has established Michigan as the favorite with moneyline odds of 1.8, implying a ~55.6% win probability. This suggests the market believes Michigan's overall strength outweighs Duke's home-court advantage.

GLM-5
58%

Michigan enters as the road favorite at 1.8 odds, which is significant in college basketball where home court advantage typically accounts for 3-4 points. Being favored on the road at Cameron Indoor Stadium indicates oddsmakers strongly respect Michigan's talent level. Duke's 2.04 odds suggest they're a live underdog, but Michigan's status as road favorite carries weight in this matchup.

The odds favor Michigan (1.8 vs 2.04), implying roughly 55% probability. Despite Duke being at home, the line suggests Michigan is the stronger team in this matchup. The moneyline indicates oddsmakers see Michigan as the slight favorite even on the road.

Michigan is favored with odds of 1.8 vs Duke's 2.04. The implied probability favors Michigan (~55.6% vs ~49%), and as the away team favored on the spread, they represent the market consensus pick. However, Duke's home court advantage keeps confidence moderate.

GPT-5
53%

Market makes Michigan a slight road favorite (-1.5, 1.80 ML), implying ~53% win probability even with Duke’s home court; siding with the market edge.

Over/Under

O/U 149

69%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 53%

Over (31%) Under (69%)
4 models · avg 55% avg 53% · 9 models

Over

Both teams have shown the ability to score high points in previous games, making the over 148.5 a reasonable expectation.

Line is 148.5 with even odds. Both teams can reach a high-paced, efficient score line, and the typical NCAA output around this level suggests a slight lean to the Over, though the edge is modest.

Grok 3
55%

The total points line is set at 148.5 with equal odds (1.91) for over and under. Given the offensive capabilities of both teams in NCAA Basketball, a high-scoring game is marginally more likely.

Grok 4
55%

Both teams have strong offenses in NCAA Basketball; even odds on 148.5 imply a close total, but patterns suggest a high-scoring game pushing over.

Under

GPT-4o
60%

The total points line is set at 148.5 with equal odds for over and under. However, given that Michigan's games tend to focus on strong defense, the total may stay under 148.5.

The total line is perfectly balanced at 148.5 with identical odds for Over and Under. Without specific team offensive/defensive metrics or recent form, it's a speculative pick, but competitive NCAA games can often trend towards the under due to defensive intensity.

148.5 is moderate (≈74.25 points per team). Given a likely tight contest and tendency for close matchups to slow pace late, lean to the under with limited confidence.

A total of 148.5 is relatively moderate for college basketball. In a competitive, closely-matched game between two quality programs, expect both teams to focus on defensive execution in crucial moments. Late-February games often feature tighter defense as teams prepare for tournament play, which typically leads to lower-scoring affairs.

GPT-5
52%

At 148.5 and equal juice, lean under based on a likely half-court tempo and defensive pressure keeping possessions and efficiency in check.

GLM-5
52%

The total of 148.5 sits in a moderate range for college basketball. February conference games between major programs like Duke and Michigan typically feature increased defensive intensity and familiarity between opponents. Both programs historically emphasize defensive identity, which should keep scoring in check. The even 1.91 odds on both sides suggest a true toss-up, but the under offers slight value in this spot.

With perfectly balanced odds at 1.91 for both over and under at 148.5 points, this is essentially a coin flip. However, high-profile matchups between quality programs like Duke and Michigan often feature heightened defensive intensity and slower pace. The total of 148.5 is moderate for college basketball, and defensive focus in a competitive game slightly favors the under.

Even odds on both over (1.91) and under (1.91) indicate a perfectly balanced total at 148.5 points. Slight edge to under based on tournament-style basketball typically featuring stronger defensive intensity, particularly in February matchups between quality programs. However, this is essentially a coin flip.

The odds for the Over and Under are identical (1.91), indicating a perfectly balanced market with no clear edge. In matchups between two major programs, defensive intensity can often be higher than average, potentially suppressing the final score. This is a low-confidence prediction reflecting the toss-up nature of the line.

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