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NCAA Basketball 2/22/2026 at 01:30 AM

Kentucky Wildcats

@

Auburn Tigers

Spread

Auburn Tigers -2.5 / Kentucky Wildcats +2.5

77%

consensus

Auburn Tigers covers

13 models · avg conf 59%

Auburn Tigers covers (77%) Kentucky Wildcats covers (23%)
10 models · avg 59% avg 53% · 3 models

Auburn Tigers covers

With Auburn as the home favorite at -2.5 and the line being relatively tight, home-court advantage increases the likelihood of Auburn covering the spread.

GPT-4o
60%

With Auburn favored by 2.5 points and their performance at home, they are likely to cover the spread. Kentucky has struggled against similar opponents in away games.

With Auburn being a -2.5 favorite at home, the expectation is that if they win, they will likely cover this relatively small spread. Their strong home environment often provides a boost that can lead to exceeding tight margins.

Grok 3
60%

Auburn Tigers -2.5 is a narrow spread, and their defensive intensity at home should allow them to win by at least 3 points against Kentucky.

With the spread set at -2.5, Auburn is likely to cover given their competitive edge at home and historical performance against Kentucky.

Grok 4
60%

Auburn's home advantage and strong rebounding should allow them to cover the -2.5 spread against a Kentucky team that struggles on the road.

Auburn favored by -2.5 points suggests oddsmakers expect a close game. The home team typically performs better, especially at an unusual 1:30 AM tipoff time which could favor the home team's familiarity with conditions. However, the tight spread indicates low confidence in any team covering decisively.

GPT-5
55%

At -2.5, if Auburn wins they often clear by 3+ via late free throws; modest edge from home-court in a near pick’em.

Auburn -2.5 is a slim number. Home-court advantage and the market balance favor Auburn to cover a short spread, but the margin is small so upside risk is limited.

GLM-5
55%

The spread of -2.5 essentially reflects standard home-court advantage (typically valued at 3-4 points). This suggests a 'pick'em' game on a neutral floor. Historically, elite home favorites in conference play cover small spreads at a higher rate due to late-game momentum and foul shooting advantages.

Kentucky Wildcats covers

In a game projected to be decided by a single possession, taking the points is often the safer bet. Kentucky consistently fields a roster with elite talent capable of keeping games close, even on the road. They have a strong chance to cover the +2.5 spread, even if they fail to win outright.

The 2.5-point spread is very tight, suggesting an extremely competitive matchup. Kentucky as a historically strong program tends to perform well in close games against ranked opponents. With equal juice (1.91) on both sides, this projects as a coin flip, but Kentucky's ability to stay competitive gives them value to cover the small spread.

The 2.5-point spread is narrow for a home favorite in SEC play. Kentucky historically performs well in road conference games and has the talent to keep games close. With such a tight line, taking the points with Kentucky offers value as they only need to lose by 2 or less or win outright.

Moneyline

Auburn Tigers +1.65 / Kentucky Wildcats +2.3

100%

consensus

Auburn Tigers wins

13 models · avg conf 61%

Auburn Tigers wins (100%) Kentucky Wildcats wins (0%)
13 models · avg 61% avg 0% · 0 models

Auburn Tigers wins

Grok 3
65%

Auburn Tigers are favored at home with a slight edge in recent form and home court advantage. Kentucky has struggled on the road in similar matchups.

GPT-4o
65%

Auburn has a slight edge due to home-court advantage and recent performance metrics. They've been strong at home this season, which gives them a higher probability of winning.

Auburn is favored at home with a -2.5 spread, indicating the oddsmakers expect them to win. The significant home-court advantage in NCAA Basketball, especially in a competitive SEC matchup, should be enough to secure a victory.

Auburn has a stronger home court advantage, and their recent performance suggests they are more likely to secure a win in this matchup.

Grok 4
65%

Auburn is favored at home with a -2.5 spread, and their recent form suggests a slight edge over Kentucky in defensive matchups.

Auburn is the home team and favored on the spread (-2.5). This home-court advantage gives Auburn a modest edge in a closely matched contest.

The small spread of -2.5 indicates the oddsmakers view this as a very close game, with the line primarily reflecting Auburn's significant home-court advantage. Neville Arena is one of the toughest environments for visiting teams in the NCAA, which should be the deciding factor in a tightly contested matchup.

Auburn is a narrow home favorite (-2.5) and market prices are symmetrical, so the home-court edge gives a small but meaningful straight-up advantage. The line implies a close game, so confidence is moderate.

Auburn is favored at home with a 2.5-point spread, indicating oddsmakers give them the edge. Home court advantage in the SEC is significant, and the relatively tight spread suggests a competitive matchup where the home team typically prevails in close games.

Auburn is favored at -2.5, indicating slight home court advantage and likely better current form/ranking. However, the small margin suggests this is a competitive matchup with Kentucky being capable of winning. Auburn's home court advantage in early morning game (1:30 AM start) provides modest edge.

Auburn is favored at home with a -2.5 spread, indicating bookmakers give them a slight edge. Home court advantage in college basketball is typically worth 3-4 points, which aligns with this narrow spread. Auburn should win a close game.

GPT-5
58%

Market makes Auburn a small home favorite; Neville Arena home-court plus pressure defense and shot-making typically travel well at home.

GLM-5
58%

Auburn possesses a significant home-court advantage at Neville Arena, widely considered one of the most hostile environments in college basketball. In a matchup where the oddsmakers view the talent levels as nearly even (indicated by the small spread), the home edge is the deciding factor for the victory.

Over/Under

O/U 157.5

62%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 56%

Over (62%) Under (38%)
8 models · avg 56% avg 55% · 5 models

Over

A total of 157.5 is very high for a college game, which points directly to the expected pace of play. Both Auburn and Kentucky are known for their high-tempo, efficient offenses. This matchup profiles as a track meet where both teams will look to push the ball, leading to a high-scoring affair that should surpass the total.

157.5 is a relatively high total; if both teams play at a typical college pace and maintain average offensive efficiency, the game should clear this number. Injuries, matchup-specific defensive strengths, or tempo adjustments could change this, so confidence is moderate.

Both teams have shown a tendency to score high in recent games, and the total of 157.5 is reasonable given their offensive capabilities.

Grok 3
55%

Both teams have shown tendencies to play high-scoring games recently, and with a total of 157.5, the over seems likely if Auburn pushes the pace at home.

Both Auburn and Kentucky typically feature athletic, up-tempo offenses. A total of 157.5 suggests a high-scoring affair. While SEC games can be physical, the offensive talent and pace of play often push these matchups towards the 'over' in a competitive setting.

Grok 4
55%

Both teams have high-paced offenses, and recent games for each have trended over totals around 157.5, especially in conference play.

GLM-5
52%

Both Auburn and Kentucky typically employ fast-paced, high-efficiency offensive schemes. A total of 157.5 implies an expected fast tempo. In tight conference rivalry games, foul trouble and late-game free throws often inflate the final score, pushing the total just over the line.

The 157.5 total is a balanced line with both teams capable of high-tempo scoring. Without more specific pace/defense data, the outcome is equally plausible on either side, though a slight tilt toward over exists if both teams push tempo.

Under

GPT-5
57%

157.5 is high; while pace should be up, both sides have length and pressure to disrupt efficiency, and late-game half-court + whistle can cap scoring.

GPT-4o
55%

Both teams have shown variability in their scoring abilities. Given the defensive strengths of both squads, the total is likely to stay under 157.5 points.

The 157.5 total suggests a moderate-paced game. Auburn vs Kentucky matchups historically feature strong defensive intensity, especially in conference play. The tight spread indicates a likely close, defensive-minded game where both teams will focus on limiting possessions down the stretch. These factors favor the under.

SEC matchups between top programs tend to feature strong defensive intensity, particularly in rivalry games. The total of 157.5 is moderate for college basketball, and high-stakes conference games often see tighter defensive execution and slower pace, favoring the under.

The 157.5 total appears balanced given even odds on both sides. Early morning tipoff (1:30 AM) could result in slower pace, reduced shooting efficiency, and lower scoring as both teams adjust to unusual game time. Defensive-minded SEC basketball also tends toward moderately lower-scoring affairs. Marginal lean to under.

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TBD