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NCAA Football 9/5/2026 at 04:00 PM

Clemson Tigers

@

LSU Tigers

Spread

LSU Tigers -11.5 / Clemson Tigers +11.5

69%

consensus

LSU Tigers covers

13 models · avg conf 67%

LSU Tigers covers (69%) Clemson Tigers covers (31%)
9 models · avg 67% avg 60% · 4 models

LSU Tigers covers

The spread of -11.5 for LSU suggests they are expected to win by a significant margin. Given their home advantage and historical performances, they are likely to cover the spread.

LSU at -11.5 suggests the market expects an 11-12 point LSU victory. The substantial spread reflects LSU's dominance, and home-field advantage in a noon kickoff favors the Tigers further. While covering an 11+ point spread is challenging, LSU's apparent superiority and home-field edge make this likely. Clemson would need to significantly exceed expectations.

LSU -11.5 against Clemson is a strong favorite line; with home field and higher probability to win by a double-digit margin, the cover is plausible more often than not.

GPT-4o
70%

The spread of -11.5 suggests that LSU is expected to win comfortably. Given their moneyline odds and potential home-field advantage, there is a reasonable likelihood they can cover the spread against Clemson.

Grok 3
70%

LSU Tigers are favored by -11.5 points, which implies they are expected to dominate the game. Given the consistent odds across multiple listings, there is moderate confidence that LSU will cover the spread, assuming they maintain their favored performance level.

Grok 4
65%

LSU is favored by -11.5, and given their offensive capabilities and Clemson's potential defensive struggles, LSU is likely to cover the spread at home.

LSU is a double-digit favorite (-11.5). While LSU has the edge and market expects a comfortable win, a two-score spread early in the season carries variance, so confidence is moderate.

GPT-5
58%

The -11.5 spread aligns with a median margin near 12–14 given the 1.22 ML, giving a slight lean to LSU to cover.

GLM-5
55%

The spread sits at -11.5 for LSU. While double-digit spreads in high-profile non-conference games are risky, the oddsmakers clearly respect LSU's home-field advantage and roster talent. I lean toward LSU covering, but Clemson's historical defensive competitiveness keeps this confidence level moderate.

Clemson Tigers covers

While LSU is a strong favorite, covering an 11.5-point spread against a quality opponent like Clemson is a significant challenge. Clemson's defense is typically robust enough to keep games competitive, suggesting they can keep the margin within 11 points.

The spread of -11.5 is significant for a game between two historically powerful programs. Clemson consistently recruits top-tier talent and is typically well-coached. While an LSU win is likely, Clemson has the capability to keep the game within two scores, making the +11.5 points for the away team the more valuable bet.

While LSU is favored to win outright, 11.5 points is a substantial spread in college football. Clemson has historically been a strong program capable of keeping games competitive. The spread represents nearly two touchdowns, and quality teams like Clemson often find ways to stay within that margin even in losses. The even odds (1.91) suggest bookmakers see this as a toss-up for covering.

While LSU is favored to win, 11.5 points is a significant spread for a matchup between two Power 5 programs. Clemson, despite being the underdog, has historically been a well-coached program that tends to perform competitively in marquee matchups. Early season games often feature tighter margins as teams are still finding their rhythm. The hook at 11.5 rather than a flat 10 or 14 suggests potential value on Clemson covering.

Moneyline

LSU Tigers +1.22 / Clemson Tigers +4.5

100%

consensus

LSU Tigers wins

13 models · avg conf 83%

LSU Tigers wins (100%) Clemson Tigers wins (0%)
13 models · avg 83% avg 0% · 0 models

LSU Tigers wins

The moneyline odds heavily favor LSU at 1.22, indicating a strong probability of them winning outright at home against Clemson (4.5 odds).

GPT-4o
85%

LSU Tigers are heavily favored with a moneyline of 1.22, indicating strong market confidence in their ability to win. This is likely due to their stronger performance in recent seasons, home-field advantage, and potentially superior roster depth compared to Clemson Tigers.

LSU Tigers have a strong home-field advantage and a better overall performance in recent seasons compared to Clemson. Their current moneyline odds indicate they are favored to win.

Grok 3
85%

LSU Tigers are heavily favored with a moneyline of 1.22 compared to Clemson's 4.5, indicating strong market confidence in LSU's ability to win outright. This suggests LSU likely has superior team performance, key player advantages, or home-field advantage.

Grok 4
85%

LSU is heavily favored on the moneyline at 1.22 compared to Clemson's 4.5, indicating strong market expectation of an LSU win based on team strength and home advantage.

LSU is the clear favorite at 1.22 (implied ~82% win probability) with home-field advantage; Clemson at 4.5 is a long shot.

Market strongly favors LSU (decimal ~1.22 implies ~82% market probability). Home-field and heavy-market support indicate LSU is the likely victor.

The moneyline odds of 1.22 imply a winning probability of approximately 82% for LSU. This, combined with a formidable home-field advantage at Tiger Stadium, makes them the strong favorite to win the game outright.

LSU is heavily favored at 1.22 odds (implied 82% probability) as the home team. The moneyline strongly suggests LSU has significant advantages, likely including home field advantage, superior talent, or strong recent form. Clemson at 4.5 odds reflects only an 18% win probability.

GLM-5
82%

LSU is a heavy favorite with decimal odds of 1.22 (implied probability ~82%). Playing at home in Death Valley gives them a significant advantage against a Clemson team that the market views as clearly overmatched in this specific matchup.

LSU is heavily favored with moneyline odds of 1.22, indicating strong market confidence. The -11.5 spread suggests a significant skill gap. LSU as the home team with such heavy favoritism typically reflects superior talent, coaching, and preparation. However, confidence is tempered by the fact that upsets do occur in college football.

GPT-5
78%

Decimal 1.22 implies ~82% win probability, and the -11.5 spread supports LSU as a strong home favorite.

The moneyline odds heavily favor LSU at 1.22 (implied probability ~82%) versus Clemson at 4.5 (~22%). Playing at home in Death Valley gives LSU a significant advantage. The odds suggest bookmakers see this as a mismatch, and LSU's home-field advantage in SEC play is historically one of the strongest in college football.

Over/Under

O/U 51.5

69%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 61%

Over (69%) Under (31%)
9 models · avg 61% avg 59% · 4 models

Over

Both teams have shown the capability to score high in previous matchups, and with a total set at 51.5, it is likely that both teams will contribute to a higher score than the line suggests.

GPT-4o
65%

With a total set at 51.5, both teams are expected to contribute to a moderately high-scoring game. LSU's offensive prowess might lead to a high point tally, while Clemson might still put up a decent fight, pushing the total over.

A total of 51.5 points suggests two competitive offensive teams. Given this is early September 2026 (likely season opener or Week 1), both programs typically feature high-powered offenses. The matchup of two 'Tigers' teams of this caliber often produces scoring. With LSU expected to win convincingly, they'll likely need to score in the mid-to-upper 30s, requiring Clemson to contribute 17-20+ points to push the total over.

Grok 3
60%

The total points line is set at 51.5 with even odds (1.91) for both over and under. Considering the offensive capabilities often seen in NCAA Football and LSU's favored status potentially leading to a high-scoring game, there is slight confidence in the game going over 51.5 points.

Grok 4
60%

Both teams have high-powered offenses, and the total of 51.5 points is achievable in a NCAA game, especially with LSU's scoring potential pushing the over.

A total of 51.5 for an early September game between two offensive-minded programs seems slightly low. Both LSU and Clemson typically feature dynamic offensive schemes, and early-season defenses tend to be less cohesive. September games in college football often trend toward higher scoring as teams work out defensive schemes. The warm weather conditions in Baton Rouge should also favor offensive production.

Total of 51.5 points is mid-range for NCAA games; two offenses (LSU/Clemson) have potential to reach or exceed this when the game is competitive, though defense could limit scoring.

Total of 51.5 is middling; early-season nonconference matchups and two Power programs suggest potential for higher scoring. Slight lean to the over with modest confidence.

A total of 51.5 is a moderate line in modern college football. Both teams have traditionally fielded high-scoring offenses. LSU, being the heavy favorite at home, is expected to post a significant number of points. Clemson should be able to score enough against them to push the combined total over the 51.5 mark.

Under

The total of 51.5 sits at even odds (1.91 each side), suggesting market uncertainty. Given LSU's apparent defensive strength (implied by the large spread) and the likelihood of LSU controlling the game with a lead, this typically results in a more defensive, clock-management style game. Early afternoon games also tend toward slightly lower scoring. However, this prediction carries moderate confidence due to balanced market odds.

Both LSU and Clemson are known for strong defensive capabilities. In a high-profile, early-season matchup, defensive execution is often high. The 51.5 total is a moderate line, and a tough defensive battle could keep the score below this mark.

GLM-5
60%

The total is set at 51.5. Given Clemson's defensive pedigree and the potential for this to be a statement game for LSU's defense, a scoreline in the range of 31-17 or 34-20 seems more probable than a shootout, favoring the Under.

GPT-5
54%

Spread/total imply ~31.5–20; with a likely game state of a leading favorite, pace could slow late, nudging Under 51.5.

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