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NCAA Basketball 2/21/2026 at 01:30 AM

Bowling Green Falcons

@

Miami (OH) RedHawks

Spread

Miami (OH) RedHawks -8 / Bowling Green Falcons +8

69%

consensus

Miami (OH) RedHawks covers

13 models · avg conf 65%

Miami (OH) RedHawks covers (69%) Bowling Green Falcons covers (31%)
9 models · avg 65% avg 57% · 4 models

Miami (OH) RedHawks covers

Miami (OH) is listed as a -8 favorite at home across two betting sets, indicating the market expects them to win by more than a bucket; home teams in conference play often cover when favored by 8.

With a spread of -8, Miami (OH) is likely to cover this line based on their recent strong performances and ability to win by a margin at home.

While covering an 8-point spread can be challenging in NCAA Basketball, the consistent -8 line across different odds providers suggests that Miami (OH) is genuinely considered significantly better. As the home team and favorite, they are expected to control the game and secure a comfortable win exceeding the spread.

Grok 4
65%

Miami (OH) has a history of covering spreads at home against weaker opponents like Bowling Green, with the line at -8 suggesting they win by double digits.

GPT-4o
65%

The consistent spread line at -8 suggests confidence in Miami (OH) RedHawks' ability to win by a significant margin. Their offensive capabilities and home court advantage support this prediction.

Grok 3
65%

Miami (OH) RedHawks are favored by 8 points with consistent odds across sportsbooks (1.91-1.94). Their home advantage and implied strength suggest they are likely to cover the spread.

Miami (OH) is favored by 8 points at home. The spread suggests the market views this as a moderately comfortable home win. However, the -8 spread is not overwhelming, indicating Bowling Green is competitive enough to keep this close. Miami's home court advantage makes covering slightly more probable than not.

GLM-5
62%

While 8 points is a substantial spread for a conference game, the consistent lines across books suggest sharp money respects Miami (OH)'s ability to dominate. If Miami controls the tempo and utilizes their home court advantage effectively, they should be able to create separation and cover the number.

An 8-point home spread is sizable but reachable for the favorite. Miami's presumed advantages (home crowd, matchup matchup depth and defensive cohesion late in conference play) suggest they can cover, though road teams in the MAC can keep games close, hence moderate confidence.

Bowling Green Falcons covers

An 8-point spread is substantial for a conference matchup where teams have high familiarity. While Miami (OH) is the stronger team, Bowling Green has a good chance to keep the final margin within the spread, making the Falcons +8 the value play.

An 8-point spread in college basketball is substantial. Conference rivals often play competitive games regardless of talent disparity. The odds being nearly even (1.91-1.94) suggest the market sees this as a toss-up for covering. Bowling Green getting 8 points provides value in what could be a closer game than the spread suggests.

GPT-5
56%

With a high total (152) increasing variance and backdoor potential, +8 offers value to the underdog in a conference matchup; no clear market move off 8 suggests taking the points.

An 8-point spread is substantial for a MAC conference game where teams are often familiar with each other. Bowling Green typically plays competitive games against conference rivals, and 8 points provides decent cushion. Road dogs in conference play tend to cover at a slightly higher rate when spreads reach this level.

Moneyline

Miami (OH) RedHawks +1.27 / Bowling Green Falcons +3.7

100%

consensus

Miami (OH) RedHawks wins

13 models · avg conf 74%

Miami (OH) RedHawks wins (100%) Bowling Green Falcons wins (0%)
13 models · avg 74% avg 0% · 0 models

Miami (OH) RedHawks wins

The Miami (OH) RedHawks are established as clear 8-point favorites, strongly indicating they are expected to win the game outright.

Miami (OH) is a significant home favorite, as indicated by the -8 point spread. Home-court advantage is a major factor in college basketball, and a spread of this magnitude suggests the market has high confidence in a straight-up win for the RedHawks.

GLM-5
78%

Miami (OH) is listed as a significant 8-point home favorite, indicating oddsmakers view them as the superior team. Home court advantage in NCAA basketball generally provides a 3-4 point swing, suggesting the RedHawks have a distinct talent advantage in this matchup.

Miami (OH) has shown stronger performances at home and has a better overall record compared to Bowling Green. The home court advantage is significant in NCAA basketball.

GPT-4o
75%

Miami (OH) RedHawks are favored by 8 points, indicating the bookmakers' expectation for them to win. Additionally, they have a strong home record and better recent form compared to Bowling Green Falcons.

Grok 4
75%

Miami (OH) is favored with a -8 spread, indicating strong home advantage and better recent form in MAC matchups.

The 8-point spread indicates Miami (OH) is a solid favorite at home. Home court advantage in the MAC is significant, and the bookmakers clearly view Miami as the stronger team in this matchup. The RedHawks should control this game.

Miami (OH) is the clear home favorite (-8) across books; home-court edge in a MAC matchup plus the size of the spread implies bookmakers expect Miami to control the game. Absent major injuries, Miami is more likely to win straight-up.

Miami (OH) is favored by 8 points at home, indicating a clear advantage. As the home team with a significant spread, they have the edge to win outright in this MAC conference matchup.

Grok 3
70%

Miami (OH) RedHawks are favored with a -8 spread, indicating a stronger team performance expected at home. Historical trends in NCAA Basketball often favor home teams in such matchups.

GPT-5
70%

Consensus spread of -8 with even juice implies a solid home favorite; market-implied strength and home-court edge point to Miami (OH) winning outright.

Home court advantage and the favored status (-8) suggest Miami (OH) is likelier to win outright; MAC rivalry games tend to tighten, but the home team typically holds the edge in these matchups.

Miami is favored at -8 spread, indicating market confidence in the home team. As the home team in a MAC conference matchup, Miami typically has court advantage. However, confidence is moderate due to limited historical context and the relatively tight odds suggesting competitive balance.

Over/Under

O/U 153.5

62%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 58%

Over (62%) Under (38%)
8 models · avg 58% avg 57% · 5 models

Over

Both teams have shown the ability to score high points in previous matchups, and the total set at 152 seems achievable with their offensive capabilities.

Grok 3
60%

The total points line is set at 152 with balanced odds (1.91-1.93). Given the offensive capabilities often seen in NCAA Basketball and potential for high-scoring games, the over is a slight lean.

GPT-4o
60%

Both teams have shown tendencies to score high in recent games, and the set total at 152 suggests an expectation for a high-scoring affair. The odds are evenly matched, but trends lean towards a high total outcome.

Both teams can reach mid-70s scoring in MAC play, and a pace-friendly environment at home increases chances of reaching or exceeding 152 total; occasional late fouling can push the total over.

GLM-5
55%

The total sits at 152, which is moderately high for a college game but suggests an uptempo affair. If Miami (OH) builds a lead, Bowling Green will be forced to push the pace and shoot frequently to catch up, potentially leading to a higher scoring game and hitting the over.

The 152 line is relatively high for college basketball; however, both teams typically play at a spirited conference pace and will look to score in transition. Expect a faster tempo and multiple scoring runs, making the over slightly more likely, but uncertainty on defensive adjustments keeps confidence modest.

The total of 152 points is high, indicating an expectation of a fast-paced, offense-heavy game. In a game with a significant favorite, late-game fouling by the trailing team can often add crucial points, pushing a borderline total over the line.

The total is set at 152 with perfectly balanced odds. Given Miami (OH)'s status as an 8-point favorite, it implies they are expected to have a strong offensive performance. If they dictate the pace and score efficiently, even with a potentially struggling opponent, the game could tip towards the 'Over' as the favorite pushes the scoring.

Under

The total of 152 points is relatively low for college basketball, suggesting defensive-minded teams or slower pace. MAC conference games between familiar opponents often feature tighter defensive execution. With even odds on both sides, the under provides value as rivalry games tend to be more defensive-focused and controlled.

Grok 4
60%

Both teams play at a moderate pace, and recent games in this matchup have trended under the total, especially with a line of 152 points.

The total is set at 152 points for a MAC conference matchup. MAC basketball typically features lower-tempo, defensive-oriented play compared to major conferences. The 152 total seems moderately high for this conference level. A slight lean to under, though confidence is low due to the balanced odds (1.91-1.93 on both sides) suggesting genuine uncertainty.

GPT-5
53%

152 is elevated for conference play; if the favorite controls, tempo can moderate late. Even pricing on both sides suggests no strong over signal—small lean to the under.

A total of 152 is moderate for college basketball. Late-season MAC games often feature tighter defensive play as teams are familiar with opponents' schemes. The identical pricing across books suggests balanced action, but conference matchups in February tend to be grind-it-out affairs with increased defensive intensity.

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TBD