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English Premier League 2/28/2026 at 03:00 PM

Everton

@

Newcastle United

Spread

Newcastle United -0.5 / Everton +0.5

100%

consensus

Newcastle United covers

13 models · avg conf 69%

Newcastle United covers (100%) Everton covers (0%)
13 models · avg 69% avg 0% · 0 models

Newcastle United covers

Given Newcastle's strong favoritism on the moneyline, covering a -0.5 spread (meaning they just need to win) is highly probable. The odds of 1.68 reflect this expectation.

The -0.5 spread for Newcastle is functionally identical to a moneyline win. Given the strong likelihood of a Newcastle victory, they are predicted to cover by winning the match outright. The odds align closely with the moneyline, supporting this outcome.

The spread is Newcastle -0.5 with odds around 1.68, indicating expectation of a win by at least one goal. The home team is favored to cover the margin given the betting line structure.

Grok 3
70%

Newcastle United is favored with a -0.5 spread at odds of 1.68, suggesting they are expected to win by at least one goal. Given their moneyline favorability, they are likely to cover the spread against Everton.

Grok 4
70%

Newcastle -0.5 at 1.68 suggests they are expected to win outright, covering the spread against a struggling Everton side.

Given Newcastle's strong home record and the fact that they are favored by a half-goal, they are expected to cover the spread against Everton.

GPT-4o
70%

The spread odds suggest Newcastle United is favored to cover -0.5. Given their strong moneyline odds, they are likely to win by at least one goal.

Newcastle at -0.5 (slight favorite) aligns with moneyline consensus. The spread odds (1.68 for Newcastle vs 2.06 for Everton) show books favor Newcastle covering the half-goal spread. Home advantage and betting market positioning support Newcastle covering, though the -0.5 spread is tight, reflecting competitive expectations.

Newcastle only needs to win by 1 goal to cover the -0.5 spread. Given the substantial quality gap implied by the moneyline odds (Newcastle ~59% implied probability vs Everton ~20%), and home field advantage, Newcastle should win by at least one goal. The spread odds of 1.68 suggest good value for a home cover.

Newcastle -0.5 at 1.68 odds essentially mirrors the moneyline bet (win by any margin). The spread line suggests bookmakers expect Newcastle to win outright. The relatively tight juice between home (-0.5 at 1.68) and away (+0.5 at 2.06) indicates some market uncertainty, but Newcastle's home form and Everton's typical struggles away from Goodison Park favor the home side covering.

GLM-5
65%

The spread line of Newcastle -0.5 at 1.68 odds aligns closely with the moneyline, essentially requiring Newcastle to win by any margin. Given their strong home form and the odds consistency across markets, Newcastle covering the -0.5 handicap is the logical play.

Newcastle -0.5 is reasonably priced (~1.68) indicating the market expects a one-goal margin; Newcastle’s favoritism and home edge make them the more likely side to cover a half-goal spread.

GPT-5
56%

Newcastle -0.5 at ~1.68 normalizes to ~55% to cover; pricing aligns with a narrow home win.

Moneyline

Newcastle United +1.71 / Everton +4.4

100%

consensus

Newcastle United wins

13 models · avg conf 74%

Newcastle United wins (100%) Everton wins (0%)
13 models · avg 74% avg 0% · 0 models

Newcastle United wins

Newcastle United is a clear favorite across all moneyline odds, consistently priced significantly lower than Everton. The market strongly expects a home win.

Newcastle United are strong home favorites, as reflected by the consistently low moneyline odds (averaging ~1.68). The market consensus and home-field advantage point to a high probability of a home victory.

Grok 3
75%

Newcastle United has significantly lower odds across multiple moneyline listings (ranging from 1.65 to 1.7) compared to Everton (4.6 to 5.1), indicating strong market confidence in their victory. As the home team, they likely have an advantage in form and familiarity.

Newcastle's home advantage, recent form, and better overall squad depth suggest they are more likely to win against Everton.

GPT-4o
75%

Newcastle United's odds are significantly lower, indicating they are strong favorites. Their home advantage and recent form likely contribute to this status.

Grok 4
75%

Newcastle is heavily favored with odds around 1.7, indicating strong home advantage and recent form over Everton's higher odds of 4.6-5.1.

Newcastle is consistently priced as the favorite across multiple bookmakers (around 1.65–1.70) while Everton sits as a clear underdog (roughly 4.6–5.1). Home advantage and the nominal form edge support Newcastle to win.

Newcastle United shows consistent favorites odds across all sportsbooks (1.65-1.7), indicating strong market confidence. Everton's odds range from 4.6-5.1, suggesting significant underdog status. The tight clustering of Newcastle odds suggests sharp action on the home side. However, the confidence is moderate rather than high due to the inherent unpredictability of football and lack of current season context.

Newcastle United is heavily favored across all betting lines (1.65-1.7 odds vs 4.6-5.1 for Everton). Home advantage at St. James' Park combined with the significant odds differential indicates strong market confidence in a Newcastle victory. The consistency across multiple bookmakers reinforces this position.

Newcastle United are heavily favored at home with odds ranging from 1.65-1.70 across all bookmakers, implying approximately 59-61% win probability. Playing at St. James' Park gives them a significant advantage, and the consistent odds across bookmakers suggest strong market confidence. Everton's odds of 4.6-5.1 indicate they're considerable underdogs with roughly 20% implied win probability.

Market consensus strongly favors Newcastle (multiple moneylines ~1.65–1.7 implying ~58–60% raw probability). Home advantage and a generally stronger squad make Newcastle the clear expected winner.

GLM-5
68%

Newcastle United are heavily favored across all moneyline odds (1.65-1.7), indicating strong market confidence. Home advantage at St. James' Park is significant, and the substantial gap to Everton's odds (4.6-5.1) suggests Newcastle are expected to dominate this fixture.

GPT-5
58%

Books price Newcastle 1.65–1.70 (two-way), implying ~56–58% fair win chance; consistent market favorite at home over Everton.

Over/Under

O/U 2.75

92%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 62%

Over (92%) Under (8%)
12 models · avg 62% avg 62% · 1 model

Over

The odds for Over 2.5 goals are consistently lower (1.76-1.77) than for Under 2.5 goals (1.95-2.02), indicating the market expects a higher-scoring game, likely driven by Newcastle's attacking prowess at home.

The betting odds for Over 2.5 goals are consistently lower (avg. 1.765) than for the Under (avg. 1.985), indicating the market expects at least three goals to be scored. This aligns with a scenario where the favored home team scores multiple times.

Grok 4
65%

Odds lean towards over 2.5 at 1.76-1.77, with Newcastle's attacking style likely leading to more goals than under at 1.95-2.02.

Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede goals, suggesting that the total goals will likely exceed 2.5.

GPT-4o
65%

The odds slightly favor the over 2.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a relatively open game. Newcastle's attacking capability at home supports this prediction.

The Over 2.5 is priced at 1.76-1.77, suggesting roughly 55% probability. With Newcastle expected to attack aggressively at home against a likely struggling Everton side, and Newcastle needing multiple goals to secure victory, 3+ total goals is reasonable. Newcastle's attacking quality should produce goals, and Everton may find opportunities on the counter or from set pieces.

Grok 3
60%

The odds for Over 2.5 goals are slightly more favorable (1.76 to 1.77) compared to Under 2.5 (1.95 to 2.02). This, combined with Newcastle's potential attacking strength as the favorite, leans towards a higher-scoring game.

Books price Over 2.5 around 1.76–1.77 (implying a bit better than 50/50). With Newcastle favored to press and Everton prone to conceding on the road, the market tilt toward over is justified.

Over 2.5 is listed around 1.76–1.77, with Under near 2.02. The matchup and typical Premier League scoring patterns favor an over, though the line is not massively biased.

Over 2.5 goals is slightly favored at 1.76-1.77 odds versus Under at 1.95-2.02. Newcastle typically play attacking football at home under their system, and matches involving a clear favorite often see goals as the underdog must push forward. The odds suggest approximately 55-57% implied probability for Over 2.5, which aligns with EPL average goals per game trends.

GLM-5
55%

The Over 2.5 odds (1.76-1.77) are shorter than the Under (1.95-2.02), suggesting bookmakers lean toward a match with 3+ goals. Newcastle's attacking intent at home combined with Everton's potential defensive vulnerabilities supports this projection, though it remains a closer contest.

GPT-5
53%

Over 2.5 at 1.76–1.77 vs under 1.95–2.02 gives a ~52–53% fair chance for the over; slight market lean to goals.

Under

Under 2.5 shows slightly better odds (1.95-2.02) compared to Over (1.76-1.77), suggesting sportsbooks expect a lower-scoring match. The narrow goal threshold (2.5) and relatively balanced odds indicate uncertainty, but the modest edge on Under odds combined with Newcastle's strong defensive reputation supports a prediction of fewer than 3 goals combined.

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