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NCAA Basketball 2/20/2026 at 11:30 PM

Akron Zips

@

Ball State Cardinals

Spread

Ball State Cardinals +13.5 / Akron Zips -13.5

54%

consensus

Akron Zips covers

13 models · avg conf 68%

Ball State Cardinals covers (46%) Akron Zips covers (54%)
6 models · avg 62% avg 68% · 7 models

Ball State Cardinals covers

Ball State is favored by 13.5 points at home. The steep spread reflects confidence in Ball State's superiority. However, spreads this large carry some risk due to potential letdowns or garbage time scoring. Ball State should win, but covering a 13.5-point spread requires domination. Confidence is moderately high but not extreme given the size of the spread.

While Akron is a heavy moneyline favorite, covering a -13.5 point spread against a home team can be challenging. The slightly lower odds for Ball State to cover +13.5 (1.87) compared to Akron -13.5 (1.95) suggest a perceived higher likelihood that Ball State will keep the game within this margin, even in a loss.

A 13.5-point spread is substantial in college basketball. Ball State is playing at home and will be motivated to avoid a blowout. It is common for large home underdogs to play with enough pride to cover the spread, even in a decisive loss.

GLM-5
58%

Ball State getting 13.5 points at home offers value. In college basketball, home underdogs receiving double-digit points cover at a solid rate. Home court advantage in NCAA basketball is significant, and even outmatched teams often keep games closer than expected in familiar surroundings.

GPT-5
55%

The number is large for a road favorite; pricing (Ball State +13.5 at 1.87 vs Akron -13.5 at 1.95) subtly favors the home dog and allows backdoor cover potential.

A 13.5-point spread is substantial for a conference game. While Akron is clearly the better team, double-digit road spreads in college basketball are historically difficult to cover. Home court advantage and potential for Ball State to keep it competitive in a familiar environment suggests slight value on the Cardinals covering, even in a loss.

Akron Zips covers

GPT-4o
80%

The spread of -13.5 for Akron suggests that they are expected to win by a considerable margin. Given their strong moneyline odds, Akron is likely to cover the spread.

With Akron Zips being favored by a substantial margin of 13.5 points, their strong season performance and recent head-to-head matchups against Ball State suggest they will cover the spread.

Grok 3
70%

Akron Zips are favored by -13.5 points with odds of 1.95, which implies they are expected to win by a significant margin. While covering a double-digit spread can be challenging, their implied strength suggests they are likely to outperform Ball State by at least 14 points.

Akron is favored by a large margin. While a two-possession cover is not guaranteed, the line suggests bookmakers expect a comfortable Akron win. Given the substantial favoritism and typical home/away MAC disparities, Akron is the more likely team to cover -13.5.

Akron is favored by 13.5 points with slightly better odds on their side (-13.5 at 1.95 vs +13.5 at 1.87). The combination of heavy moneyline favoritism and a moderate spread suggests the market expects a comfortable Akron victory. The slight juice advantage on Akron covering indicates sharper money may be leaning that direction.

Akron is favored by 13.5 points. If they win, they often cover such a spread; Ball State would need a strong upset or late run to keep it within 13.5.

Grok 4
58%

Akron -13.5 has slightly better odds (1.95 vs 1.87), suggesting value in them covering as the stronger team, though underdogs often keep games close at home.

Moneyline

Ball State Cardinals +9.1 / Akron Zips +1.07

92%

consensus

Akron Zips wins

13 models · avg conf 91%

Ball State Cardinals wins (8%) Akron Zips wins (92%)
1 model · avg 92% avg 91% · 12 models

Ball State Cardinals wins

The moneyline odds heavily favor Ball State (8.2 vs 1.08), indicating strong market consensus for a home win. The massive spread of 13.5 points further supports Ball State as a dominant favorite. While these odds suggest significant disparity, the home court advantage combined with the betting market's clear positioning makes Ball State the strong pick.

Akron Zips wins

GPT-4o
95%

Akron Zips have been given extremely short odds to win, indicating a high probability of victory. This suggests a significant disparity in team strength, favoring Akron.

The moneyline odds heavily favor Akron at 1.08 vs Ball State at 8.2, indicating Akron is an overwhelming favorite. This suggests a significant talent/performance gap. The market is pricing Akron with approximately 93% implied probability to win outright.

The moneyline odds for Akron Zips (1.08) are extremely low, indicating they are an overwhelming favorite with a very high implied probability of winning the game outright.

The moneyline odds of 1.08 for Akron imply a win probability of over 92%. They are the overwhelming favorites against a significant underdog in Ball State, making this the most likely outcome of the game.

GLM-5
92%

Akron is a massive favorite at 1.08 odds, indicating the market sees this as a lopsided matchup. The implied probability of ~93% suggests Akron is the far superior team in this contest.

Grok 4
92%

Akron is heavily favored with 1.08 moneyline odds, implying over 90% win probability, likely due to superior team performance and matchup advantages in NCAA Basketball.

The moneyline odds heavily favor Akron (1.08 vs 8.2), indicating oddsmakers see approximately 90%+ implied probability for an Akron victory. This suggests a significant talent/performance gap between these MAC conference teams, with Akron likely being a conference contender while Ball State appears to be struggling.

The market makes Akron a heavy favorite (1.08 ML, -13.5 spread). That degree of juice implies the sportsbook expects a clear Akron victory; unless there is late injury news or roster disruption, Akron is the likely winner.

GPT-5
88%

Akron’s 1.08 moneyline implies ~93% win probability, reinforced by a -13.5 spread even on the road.

Akron is a heavy decimal favorite (1.08) and statistically more likely to win; Ball State is the underdog with a lower probability of pulling the upset.

Grok 3
85%

The odds heavily favor Akron Zips at 1.08 compared to Ball State Cardinals at 8.2, indicating a strong market belief in Akron's dominance. This suggests Akron has a superior team performance or historical advantage in this matchup.

Akron Zips have significantly lower odds on the moneyline, indicating they are favored to win. Their performance metrics suggest they have been more consistent compared to Ball State this season.

Over/Under

O/U 146

77%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 57%

Over (23%) Under (77%)
3 models · avg 62% avg 57% · 10 models

Over

Both teams have shown a tendency to engage in high-scoring games, and the total set at 146.5 seems reasonable given their offensive capabilities. An over prediction is favored due to expected pace and scoring efficiency.

The total of 146.5 is in the mid-range for Division I mid-major games. With Akron priced as a big favorite, a high-scoring performance by them plus a competitive Ball State showing (or garbage-time scoring) leans toward exceeding 146.5. However, the confidence is moderate because blowouts can suppress scoring if starters sit late.

Projected pace and scoring from both teams suggests a total near or above 146.5, though the line is close and a strong defensive effort could push it under.

Under

The total is set at 146.5 with nearly even odds (1.91 over, 1.89 under). A 13.5-point spread suggests one team will control the game, potentially leading to slower pace and fewer possessions overall. If Ball State dominates as expected, the game may be decided early with reduced fourth-quarter scoring intensity, favoring the under. However, this is a moderate confidence prediction given balanced odds.

GPT-4o
60%

While both teams might score decently, the large spread and Akron's dominance could lead to a more controlled game pace, potentially keeping the total points under 146.5.

Grok 3
60%

The total points line is set at 146.5, with close odds for over (1.91) and under (1.89). Given that Akron is heavily favored, the game could be lopsided, potentially leading to a lower-scoring affair if Ball State struggles offensively. Historical NCAA games with large spreads often trend under due to defensive play or game control by the favorite.

The odds for Under 146.5 (1.89) are marginally lower than Over 146.5 (1.91). This slight difference indicates a lean towards a lower-scoring game by the oddsmakers, suggesting the total points will fall short of 146.5.

The total is set at 146.5 with nearly balanced odds (Over 1.91, Under 1.89). This is a relatively low total for college basketball, suggesting a defensive-oriented or slower-paced game is expected. With Ball State likely struggling as heavy underdogs, scoring efficiency may be limited. The slight edge in under odds (1.89 vs 1.91) suggests marginal market preference for the under.

GLM-5
55%

Games with large spreads often favor unders as the favorite controls tempo and the outmatched underdog struggles offensively. The total of 146.5 is moderate, and Akron's defensive dominance in this matchup could limit scoring opportunities.

The odds are very close, but slightly favor the under (1.89 vs 1.91). In a matchup with a heavy favorite like Akron, the pace can be controlled by the leading team, and the underdog's offense is often stifled, making it difficult for both teams to reach a high combined score.

GPT-5
54%

Slight shading to the under at 146.5 and blowout/late-game slowdown dynamics support a modest lean to the under.

The total of 146.5 is moderate for college basketball. Late February conference games often feature teams familiar with each other's tendencies, potentially leading to tighter defensive execution. Additionally, if Ball State struggles offensively as the spread suggests, they may slow the pace to stay competitive, pushing the game under.

Grok 4
52%

Under 146.5 has marginally better odds (1.89 vs 1.91), indicating a slight edge for lower scoring, possibly due to defensive styles or recent team trends.

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