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English Premier League 2/21/2026 at 03:00 PM

Brighton and Hove Albion

@

Brentford

Spread

Brentford -0.5 / Brighton and Hove Albion +0.5

69%

consensus

Brentford covers

13 models · avg conf 59%

Brentford covers (69%) Brighton and Hove Albion covers (31%)
9 models · avg 59% avg 58% · 4 models

Brentford covers

Grok 3
65%

Brentford is favored with a -0.25 or -0.5 spread across listings, with odds around 1.83 to 2.03. Given their favored status and home advantage, they are likely to win by at least a small margin, covering the spread.

Brentford's small spread advantages (-0.25 to -0.5) are consistently offered across multiple sportsbooks, indicating professional consensus that home advantage and form favor Brentford narrowly. The -0.25 spread appears more frequently and with better odds (1.82-1.83), suggesting this is the true market assessment. However, low confidence due to the tight spread suggesting a close match.

The prevailing spread indicates Brentford as the favorite around -0.25. As the home side with the favored status, Brentford is more likely to cover this light spread unless the match ends in a draw.

With Brentford favored by -0.25, their home performance suggests they are likely to cover the spread against Brighton.

The -0.25 spread for Brentford is offered at slightly lower odds (1.82-1.83) compared to Brighton +0.25 (2.02-2.04). This suggests the market leans towards Brentford winning or at least securing a draw, making them likely to cover this small spread.

Grok 4
60%

Spreads like Brentford -0.25 or -0.5 with odds around 1.8-2.0 suggest Brentford is expected to cover as the home favorite against Brighton.

Lines show a small home spread (-0.25 to -0.5). Given the modest market edge for Brentford and home advantage, they are slightly more likely to cover a small spread, though the margin is slim.

GLM-5
55%

The -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.82-1.83 offers good value for Brentford. This line provides a safety net where a draw results in a half-stake return. The -0.5 spread at 2.03 odds also presents reasonable value given Brentford's strong home record. Market consistency across books supports the home cover.

GPT-5
54%

Brentford -0.25 priced ~1.82–1.83 versus Brighton +0.25 ~2.02–2.04 signals a slight edge for Brentford to at least split on the quarter-ball. Competing +0.5 at 1.70 for Brighton suggests a tight match, keeping confidence moderate.

Brighton and Hove Albion covers

GPT-4o
60%

The spread odds slightly favor Brighton and Hove Albion to cover the +0.25 and +0.5 lines. Given the competitive nature of the odds and Brighton's ability to keep games close, they might cover the spread even if they do not win outright.

While Brentford is favored to win, the spread lines indicate a close contest is expected. The odds for Brighton +0.5 are heavily juiced at 1.70, suggesting a high probability that Brighton will either win or draw. This indicates value in backing the away team to cover the spread in a game anticipated to be decided by a narrow margin.

Brighton gets 0.25-0.5 goals on the spread, which provides good value given the relatively tight moneyline odds. The spread odds favor Brighton at 2.02-2.04 on +0.25, suggesting bookmakers expect a close match. Even if Brentford wins, a one-goal margin would result in a push or win on the Asian handicap. Brighton's ability to keep matches competitive makes the cushion valuable.

The spread lines vary between -0.25 and -0.5 for Brentford, with Brighton +0.25 at 2.02-2.04 offering value. Brighton historically performs well against mid-table opposition and rarely loses by multiple goals. The Asian handicap of +0.25 means a draw returns half the stake, providing insurance. Brighton's defensive organization under their system makes covering a quarter-goal spread favorable.

Moneyline

Brentford +2.04 / Brighton and Hove Albion +3.5

100%

consensus

Brentford wins

13 models · avg conf 63%

Brentford wins (100%) Brighton and Hove Albion wins (0%)
13 models · avg 63% avg 0% · 0 models

Brentford wins

Grok 3
70%

Brentford consistently shows lower odds across multiple moneyline listings (average around 2.08), indicating bookmakers favor them as the likely winner. Their home advantage in the English Premier League further supports this prediction.

Brentford is consistently favored across all sportsbooks with odds averaging around 2.08, implying approximately 48% implied probability of winning. As the home team with favorable odds and multiple books showing similar confidence, Brentford appears to be the stronger pick. Brighton's odds consistently range 3.1-3.4, suggesting bookmakers view them as clear underdogs despite being a competitive side.

Grok 4
65%

Brentford is consistently favored across multiple moneyline odds (average ~2.08), implying higher probability of a home win compared to Brighton's average ~3.2 odds.

GPT-4o
65%

Brentford is slightly favored in most of the moneyline odds, suggesting a higher probability of winning. As the home team, they may also have a home-field advantage, contributing to their likelihood of winning.

Brentford has a slight edge in recent form and home advantage, which typically enhances their chances of winning.

Brentford is consistently priced as the favorite across all provided betting lines. The average odds of approximately 2.07 suggest an implied probability of around 48% for a home win, making them the most likely victor based on market consensus.

Brentford is consistently priced as the slight favorite across multiple moneyline odds, indicating the market expects them to win, likely due to home advantage.

Brentford appears as the slight favorite across multiple decimal moneylines (around 2.0–2.15) and is shown with a common spread line of -0.25, indicating home-field and matchup advantage over Brighton.

The consensus odds show Brentford as clear favorites at approximately 2.08, implying a 48% win probability compared to Brighton's 31% at 3.2. Home advantage at Brentford's compact stadium is a significant factor. The consistency across all bookmakers suggests strong market confidence in Brentford's superiority in this matchup.

Market consensus across multiple books lists Brentford as the slight favorite at home (moneylines clustered ~2.05–2.15 vs Brighton ~3.1–3.3). The narrow edge and home venue tilt the probability toward Brentford, but the match looks competitive.

Brentford are clear favorites across all bookmakers with odds around 2.05-2.15, implying roughly 45-48% win probability. Home advantage at the Gtech Community Stadium is significant for Brentford. Brighton's odds of 3.1-3.4 suggest bookmakers see them as underdogs despite their typically strong away form. The consensus pricing indicates Brentford has the edge in this matchup.

GLM-5
58%

Brentford is priced as the clear favorite across all bookmakers with odds averaging around 2.08, implying approximately 48% win probability. Home advantage in the Premier League typically provides a significant edge. Brighton's away form historically has been inconsistent, and the consistent pricing across multiple books suggests sharp money supports the home side.

GPT-5
56%

Across books Brentford are modest home favorites (2.05–2.15 vs 3.1–3.4), and AH shading (-0.25/-0.5) tilts toward the home side. Draw risk tempers confidence.

Over/Under

O/U 2.75

85%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 63%

Over (85%) Under (15%)
11 models · avg 63% avg 55% · 2 models

Over

This is the strongest signal from the betting market. The odds for Over 2.5 goals are consistently low (averaging around 1.70), indicating a high expectation of goals. The presence of a secondary line at 2.75 goals, priced nearly evenly, further reinforces that the market anticipates a scoreline featuring three or more goals.

The 'Over 2.5 goals' line is consistently priced much lower (1.69-1.72) than the 'Under 2.5 goals' line (2.03-2.1). This strong market consensus indicates a high probability of 3 or more goals being scored in the match.

GPT-4o
70%

The majority of the totals odds favor the over, indicating that bookmakers expect a higher-scoring match. Both teams have shown attacking capabilities in recent performances, aligning with the prediction for over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 is favored in the majority of the listed lines (roughly 1.7–1.93). Both teams are capable of scoring, making a 3+ goal game plausible.

Books consistently price Over 2.5 as the favorite (odds around 1.69–1.72), indicating market expectation of multiple goals. The pricing and likely open matchup suggest Over 2.5 is the better play.

GPT-5
63%

Over 2.5 is heavily juiced (1.69–1.72) and 2.75 sits near evens (1.91/1.91), implying an expected goal total around 2.7–2.8. Market lean supports Over.

Grok 3
60%

The odds for Over 2.5 or 2.75 goals are consistently lower (around 1.69 to 1.93) compared to Under, suggesting a slight bookmaker bias towards a higher-scoring game. Both teams have had matches with decent goal totals in the Premier League historically, supporting a prediction of Over.

The totals line sits between 2.5 (odds 1.69-1.72) and 2.75 (odds 1.91-1.93). Both teams typically feature in matches with goals - Brentford's attacking home style and Brighton's possession-based approach create open games. The Over 2.5 at 1.70 represents decent value. Historical head-to-head meetings between these sides tend to produce goals, and both teams have quality in the final third.

Both teams have shown tendencies to score multiple goals in recent matches, making the over on totals a reasonable expectation.

Grok 4
55%

Over 2.5/2.75 goals has lower odds (average ~1.7-1.93) compared to Under (~2.0-2.1), indicating a slight edge for higher-scoring game based on patterns.

GLM-5
52%

Over 2.5 is heavily juiced at 1.69-1.72 across all books, indicating market expectation for goals. The 2.75 total line at even odds (1.91-1.93) confirms an expected goal expectation around 2.75-3.0. Both teams have shown ability to score, and Brighton's possession-based style often creates open matches. However, confidence is moderate given potential for a cagey affair.

Under

Multiple books offer Under 2.75 at even odds (1.91-1.93), and Under 2.5 shows slightly better value (2.03-2.10 vs 1.69-1.72 for Over). This suggests bookmakers expect a relatively low-scoring affair. However, confidence is modest as the odds are nearly balanced, indicating genuine uncertainty about goal totals. Both teams' defensive capabilities and current form would need to be evaluated for stronger conviction.

The market has shifted from 2.5 to 2.75 goals as the consensus line, with Under 2.75 at 1.91-1.93 offering reasonable value. The odds suggest bookmakers anticipate a tactical, lower-scoring affair. Both teams in the Premier League context often engage in tight defensive battles. With the total at 2.75, we need 3+ goals to win an over bet, while under wins or pushes at 2 goals and wins outright with 0-1 goals.

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