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English Premier League 3/1/2026 at 04:30 PM

Chelsea

@

Arsenal

Spread

Arsenal -0.75 / Chelsea +0.75

100%

consensus

Arsenal covers

13 models · avg conf 69%

Arsenal covers (100%) Chelsea covers (0%)
13 models · avg 69% avg 0% · 0 models

Arsenal covers

The spread of Arsenal -0.5 is equivalent to a moneyline win. Given the strong confidence in an Arsenal victory, they are also the logical pick to cover this spread by winning the match by any margin.

With Arsenal favored at -0.5 (odds 1.6), this directly correlates with a moneyline win. If Arsenal wins the match by any margin, they cover this spread. Given their strong favoritism on the moneyline, covering -0.5 is highly probable.

Arsenal -0.5 is the dominant spread line in the market; as the home team and favorite, they typically cover a half-goal spread when they win.

Arsenal is listed around -0.5 at ~1.6, implying bookmakers expect a one-goal margin. The consistent pricing across lines suggests Arsenal will win by at least one goal and cover the -0.5 spread.

Grok 4
70%

Arsenal -0.5 at 1.6 implies they need to win outright; their attacking prowess and Chelsea's defensive vulnerabilities make home cover likely.

Grok 3
70%

Arsenal at -0.5 with odds of 1.6 reflects a reasonable expectation to win by at least one goal. Chelsea's +0.5 at 2.21 indicates less belief in their ability to keep the game close or win.

With Arsenal favored by -0.5, their home advantage and current form indicate they are likely to cover the spread.

GPT-4o
70%

The spread is set at Arsenal -0.5 with lower odds, suggesting a strong likelihood that Arsenal will win by at least one goal. Given Arsenal's home performance and Chelsea's relatively higher odds, Arsenal covering the spread is a reasonable expectation.

Arsenal -0.5 at 1.6 odds means they need to win outright. Given the moneyline strongly favors Arsenal and they're at home, the spread is essentially a win requirement. The odds suggest bookmakers expect Arsenal to win by at least one goal, making this spread reasonable value.

GPT-5
62%

Arsenal -0.5 at ~1.60 mirrors the ML edge; if Arsenal win, they cover. Lines are consistently short on Arsenal.

GLM-5
62%

The spread is set at Arsenal -0.5, which functions identically to the moneyline in this scenario (Arsenal must win). With odds of 1.6 on the spread offering slightly better value than some moneyline lines, backing Arsenal to cover by winning the match is the logical play based on the odds differential.

Arsenal -0.5 at 1.60 odds suggests bookmakers expect Arsenal to win outright. This spread essentially mirrors the moneyline, requiring only an Arsenal victory. While Chelsea's defensive organization in big matches can keep games tight, the consistent pricing across books at 1.60 for Arsenal -0.5 indicates reasonable value. However, London derbies can be unpredictable, tempering confidence slightly.

Arsenal -0.5 spread odds at 1.6 suggest a slight home advantage. The consistent -0.5 line (not -1 or -1.5) indicates this is expected to be a close match. Arsenal's moneyline favoritism combined with home field advantage makes them slight spread favorites, though the minimal spread reflects match competitiveness.

Moneyline

Arsenal +1.65 / Chelsea +4.8

100%

consensus

Arsenal wins

13 models · avg conf 74%

Arsenal wins (100%) Chelsea wins (0%)
13 models · avg 74% avg 0% · 0 models

Arsenal wins

Arsenal is a strong favorite across all provided moneyline odds (averaging 1.62). Chelsea's odds are significantly higher (averaging 5.37), indicating they are considerable underdogs. The market expects an Arsenal victory.

The betting market heavily favors Arsenal, with consistent odds around 1.62 across multiple sportsbooks. This implies a win probability of over 60%, making them the clear favorite at home.

Multiple market moneylines cluster around 1.61–1.65 for Arsenal, indicating a strong market consensus. Home advantage and the -0.5 spread pricing further support Arsenal as the likely winner.

Arsenal is the home favorite with moneyline around 1.6, while Chelsea is a heavy underdog (~5.4–5.6). Home advantage and favorable odds support Arsenal as the winner.

Grok 4
75%

Arsenal is heavily favored with moneyline odds around 1.62-1.65, indicating strong home advantage and recent form; Chelsea's high odds (5.1-5.6) suggest underdog status.

Grok 3
75%

Arsenal is heavily favored across multiple moneyline odds (1.61 to 1.65), indicating strong market confidence in their victory. Chelsea's odds (5.1 to 5.6) suggest a lower likelihood of an upset.

Arsenal has consistently performed well at home against Chelsea, and the odds suggest a strong likelihood of their victory.

GPT-4o
75%

Arsenal is favored at home with consistently lower odds on the moneyline across various bookmakers, indicating strong market confidence in their victory. Additionally, Arsenal's home advantage and recent form in the league contribute to this prediction.

Arsenal is heavily favored at home with odds around 1.61-1.65, implying approximately 61% win probability. Chelsea's odds of 5.1-5.6 suggest only 18% chance. Home advantage at the Emirates plus market consensus strongly favor Arsenal in this London derby.

Arsenal are heavy favorites at home with moneyline odds averaging around 1.62 (implied probability ~62%). The odds across all bookmakers consistently show Arsenal as strong favorites with Chelsea priced as significant underdogs at 5.1-5.6. Arsenal's home advantage at the Emirates typically provides a strong edge in London derbies, and the market consensus strongly favors the Gunners.

GLM-5
65%

Arsenal is a heavy favorite with odds ranging from 1.61 to 1.65, implying a win probability of over 60%. As the home team in a Premier League rivalry, the market strongly backs them to secure three points against a Chelsea side priced significantly higher (5.1-5.6).

GPT-5
64%

Market prices (1.61–1.65) imply ~62% win chance; consensus support for Arsenal at home with Chelsea a sizable underdog.

Arsenal is heavily favored with consistent odds ranging from 1.61-1.65, implying approximately 61-62% implied probability of victory. As the home team against Chelsea, Arsenal's odds reflect market confidence in their win likelihood, though the relatively moderate odds suggest this is a competitive match.

Over/Under

O/U 2.75

92%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 62%

Over (92%) Under (8%)
12 models · avg 62% avg 52% · 1 model

Over

Over 2.5 is the slight favorite in the available lines (roughly 1.78–1.79). Both sides have scoring potential, and head-to-head tendencies often yield at least three goals.

The odds for Over 2.5 goals are consistently lower (around 1.78) than the Under 2.5 odds (around 1.98). This indicates a clear market expectation for a higher-scoring game with at least three goals.

The odds for Over 2.5 goals are consistently lower (averaging 1.785) than for Under 2.5 goals (averaging 1.975). This indicates the market leans towards a higher-scoring game, with at least three goals expected.

GPT-4o
65%

The odds for over 2.5 goals are slightly more favorable compared to the under, reflecting a market expectation of a moderately high-scoring game. Both teams have offensive capabilities and a history of high-scoring encounters, supporting the prediction for the over.

Both teams have shown a tendency to score in recent matchups, and the odds for over 2.5 goals suggest a higher scoring game.

Totals market consistently prices Over 2.5 cheaper (around 1.78–1.79) than Under, indicating expectation of 3+ goals. Given both clubs' tendencies toward open play in head-to-heads and the market signal, Over 2.5 is the lean.

Grok 3
60%

The odds for Over 2.5 goals (1.78 to 1.79) are slightly more favorable than Under 2.5 (1.93 to 2.02), suggesting a moderate expectation for a higher-scoring game, likely driven by Arsenal's attacking potential.

Grok 4
60%

Over 2.5 odds (1.78-1.79) are slightly favored over under (1.93-2.02); both teams' high-scoring styles in derbies support more goals.

Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.78-1.79 (slight favorite), while Under is 1.93-2.02. Arsenal-Chelsea derbies typically feature goals, and with Arsenal's attacking style at home, 3+ goals is probable. The market is fairly balanced but leans slightly toward Over, and these teams have offensive firepower to reach this total.

GPT-5
57%

Over 2.5 at 1.78–1.79 implies ~55–56% probability; market leans to goals in an open matchup.

GLM-5
55%

The odds favor the Over 2.5 goals (1.78-1.79) compared to the Under (1.93-2.02). While London derbies can be cagey, the market suggests a higher probability of at least three goals being scored, likely due to Arsenal's attacking strength at home and the potential for an open game if Chelsea chases an equalizer.

Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.78-1.79 (implied probability ~56%) while Under 2.5 sits at 1.93-2.02. The market slightly favors the over. Arsenal typically play attacking football at home and this fixture historically produces goals. However, the relatively balanced odds suggest this could go either way, and Chelsea may employ defensive tactics as underdogs, keeping confidence moderate.

Under

Over/Under odds are relatively balanced (Over 1.78-1.79 vs Under 1.93-2.02), with a slight lean toward Under given the slightly higher payout. This suggests modest goal-scoring expectations. The 2.5 goal line indicates bookmakers expect this to be a moderately defensive or competitive encounter between two strong teams.

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