Back to Events
NCAA Basketball 2/20/2026 at 02:00 AM

South Dakota Coyotes

@

Denver Pioneers

Spread

Denver Pioneers -6.5 / South Dakota Coyotes +6.5

77%

consensus

Denver Pioneers covers

13 models · avg conf 66%

Denver Pioneers covers (77%) South Dakota Coyotes covers (23%)
10 models · avg 66% avg 55% · 3 models

Denver Pioneers covers

Given the spread of -6 to -6.5, the Pioneers have a favorable chance of covering the spread, especially considering home court advantage and South Dakota's inconsistent performance on the road.

Consensus spread centers around Denver -6.5 across multiple books, indicating bookmaker and market belief Denver can win by a touchdown. Home advantage and stable lines increase likelihood Denver covers.

Denver Pioneers are consistently favored at -6 to -6.5 points across all available odds. The tight odds clustering (1.91-1.94) suggests this is a well-established line with balanced action. Denver should win by more than the 6-point spread in a higher percentage of outcomes than not.

With Denver at -6.5 on the majority of lines and home-court advantage, they are likelier to win by a margin that covers the spread unless South Dakota surges offensively.

Grok 3
65%

Denver Pioneers are consistently favored by 6 to 6.5 points with stable odds around 1.91 to 1.94, suggesting they are likely to cover the spread against South Dakota Coyotes.

GPT-4o
65%

The spread has consistently been set around -6.5 in favor of Denver, suggesting that bookmakers expect them to win by a margin greater than 6 points. Denver's home-court advantage and recent performance metrics support this prediction.

The spread has primarily settled at Denver Pioneers -6.5, indicating market expectation for them to win by at least 7 points. While -6.5 is a key number in basketball, the initial shift from -6 to -6.5 suggests a slight leaning towards Denver's ability to cover that margin, likely driven by their home advantage or perceived strength.

Grok 4
65%

The spread has stabilized around Denver -6.5 across multiple lines, suggesting Denver is expected to win by more than 6.5 points based on betting patterns.

GLM-5
62%

The line movement from -6 to a consensus -6.5 suggests sharp money is backing the Pioneers. While 6.5 is a significant number in basketball betting, the steady line suggests oddsmakers respect Denver's ability to win by a margin of 7 or more against a South Dakota team that struggles on the road.

The spread has shown slight movement in Denver's favor (from -6 to -6.5), suggesting market confidence. In a game with a high projected total, the favored home team has a better chance to pull away and cover a moderate spread.

South Dakota Coyotes covers

The spread has moved from -6 to predominantly -6.5, showing some late money on Denver. However, 6.5 points in college basketball is a key number, and South Dakota getting more than a full possession is valuable. The tight odds (1.91-1.94) suggest this is viewed as a coin flip for the spread, giving slight edge to the dog.

The spread has moved slightly from -6 to -6.5 at most books, but one book still offers -6. In mid-major matchups, home favorites of 6+ points in conference play tend to have tighter margins than expected. South Dakota getting 6.5 points provides value, as games between Summit League opponents are typically competitive.

GPT-5
53%

Number sits mostly at -6.5, suggesting a fair line; with a slight lean to a lower total, the points gain value—South Dakota to keep it within two possessions.

Moneyline

Denver Pioneers +1.36 / South Dakota Coyotes +3.3

100%

consensus

Denver Pioneers wins

13 models · avg conf 72%

Denver Pioneers wins (100%) South Dakota Coyotes wins (0%)
13 models · avg 72% avg 0% · 0 models

Denver Pioneers wins

The consistent negative spread for the Denver Pioneers (ranging from -6 to -6.5) across all betting lines clearly establishes them as the favored team to win this game outright.

Denver is the consistent home favorite across all listed odds, with a spread of -6.5 points. This indicates a strong market expectation that they are the superior team and will win the game outright.

GLM-5
76%

Denver is the home favorite with the spread moving from -6 to -6.5, indicating market confidence in their superiority. Home court advantage in NCAA basketball typically gives the home team a 3-4 point edge, supporting Denver's ability to secure the win.

The Denver Pioneers are favored by 6 to 6.5 points, indicating they are expected to win by a solid margin. Playing at home typically provides an additional advantage.

Grok 4
75%

Denver is consistently favored in the spreads (-6 to -6.5), indicating they are the stronger team at home against South Dakota.

Denver is favored by 6-6.5 points at home, indicating clear market expectation of a win. Home court advantage in college basketball is significant, and the consistent spread across multiple books suggests sharp money agrees Denver should win outright.

Denver is favored by 6-6.5 points across all sportsbooks, indicating consistent market confidence in a home win. The consistent odds suggest sharp action supports the Pioneers. As the home team with a clear spread advantage, Denver should win outright in most scenarios.

Denver is the home favorite and is consistently positioned as the stronger side in these lines; a forceful home showing increases win probability over South Dakota.

Grok 3
70%

Denver Pioneers are favored across all spread lines at -6 to -6.5, indicating stronger market confidence in their ability to win outright at home.

GPT-4o
70%

The Denver Pioneers are favored by the spread, indicating they are the stronger team. Additionally, being the home team gives them an advantage.

Denver is favored by 6-6.5 points at home, indicating bookmakers expect them to win. Home court advantage in college basketball is significant, and the consistent spread across multiple books suggests confidence in Denver's superiority.

Denver is the clear market favorite across books (~-6 to -6.5) and is playing at home. Consistent spread pricing implies market expectation that Denver should win straight-up.

GPT-5
64%

Market has Denver -6/-6.5 at home, implying clear edge; home-court plus slightly stronger profile points to Denver to win outright.

Over/Under

O/U 163

77%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 63%

Over (23%) Under (77%)
3 models · avg 67% avg 63% · 10 models

Over

The total is very high (162-164), and the odds on the lower line of 162 are heavily weighted towards the over (1.97 vs 1.88). This strong market signal suggests a fast-paced, high-scoring game is anticipated by both teams.

The total points are set at 164 and recent trends indicate both teams are capable of high-scoring games, suggesting that the combined score will likely exceed the total.

Two mid-major teams in this matchup typically generate mid-to-upper 150s; recent lines cluster around 162-164, suggesting potential for an over if pace is up and both teams push in transition.

Under

Grok 4
70%

The total line has trended downward from 164 to 162, with under odds shortening (e.g., 1.87 vs. over's 1.95), indicating market expectation for a lower-scoring game.

The total line initially opened at 164 but has subsequently moved down to 162. Crucially, at the 162 line, the odds for the 'Under' (1.87-1.88) are lower than for the 'Over' (1.95-1.97). This downward movement in the total and the favoring odds for the Under indicate that the market expects a lower-scoring game than initially projected.

GLM-5
68%

There is notable reverse line movement on the total, dropping from 164 down to 162 with the Under 162 priced at a lower payout (1.87/1.88). This significant drop indicates sharp bettors are anticipating a slower-paced game or defensive struggle, making the Under the stronger play.

The total has moved down from 164 to 162 at some books, indicating sharp money on the under. The under is priced lower (1.87-1.88) compared to the over (1.95-1.97) at books with 162, showing bookmakers expect under action and are trying to balance it. The line movement and pricing discrepancy both point to under being the sharper play.

The total oscillates between 162-164 across sportsbooks. The slight majority of lines favor Under (appearing in 6 of 6 books), with better odds on Under (1.87-1.97) compared to Over (1.91-1.95) in most cases. This suggests oddsmakers expect a moderately lower-scoring game, typical of NCAA basketball tournament-caliber matchups with strong defensive emphasis.

Market movement from 164 down to 162 with the under showing slightly shorter juice (lower payout) suggests sharp money leaning under. That pattern favors taking the under.

GPT-4o
60%

The totals line has slightly fluctuated but generally remains high at 162-164. Given the nature of NCAA games, a total in this range suggests a high-scoring game, but betting on under can be advantageous due to potential defensive adjustments and pressure in a conference game.

Grok 3
60%

Totals lines vary between 162 and 164 with slightly better odds for 'under' at lower totals (1.87-1.88 at 162), indicating a potential for a lower-scoring game. Market fluctuation suggests caution, but under is marginally favored.

There's notable line movement with some books dropping from 164 to 162, and the under is juiced at 1.87-1.88 at those lower numbers, indicating sharp action on the under. This suggests informed bettors expect a slower-paced or more defensive contest. Taking under 164 at standard odds provides a 2-point cushion from the sharper number.

GPT-5
57%

Alt totals at 162 are shaded to the under, indicating a true total near 163; 164 is high for NCAA—market signals a modest under lean.

© 2026 Airena

TBD