Iowa State Cyclones
BYU Cougars
Spread
BYU Cougars +3.5 / Iowa State Cyclones -3.554%
consensus
Iowa State Cyclones covers
13 models · avg conf 59%
BYU Cougars covers
BYU is favored by 3.5 points, and given their home advantage, they are likely to cover the spread against Iowa State.
While Iowa State is favored, the 3.5-point spread is relatively small for college basketball. BYU playing at home with the home court advantage should keep this game competitive. Home dogs in the 3-4 point range have historically performed well against the spread in NCAA basketball, often covering even in losses.
Home court advantage in the Big 12 is notoriously difficult to overcome, particularly for a team traveling to Provo. The 3.5-point spread essentially accounts for home court advantage, suggesting a toss-up game. Historically, home underdogs in conference play cover at a high rate because the energy of the crowd keeps games competitive into the final minutes.
BYU possesses a strong home-court advantage at the Marriott Center. As a home underdog getting 3.5 points, there is value in their ability to keep the game close. Their high-volume three-point shooting gives them the offensive firepower to stay within the number.
BYU is the home underdog at +3.5, but home-court advantage and a balanced line make a cover plausible in a tight matchup.
BYU typically performs well at home in the Marriott Center with strong crowd support. A 3.5-point spread is relatively tight, and home underdogs in conference play historically cover at a decent rate. The Cougars should keep this competitive and likely stay within the number even if they don't win outright.
Iowa State Cyclones covers
The -3.5 spread for Iowa State on the road suggests a clear perceived advantage. While home court is a factor, the Cyclones are expected to win by at least 4 points, overcoming BYU's home-court advantage.
Iowa State at -3.5 is a reasonable spread to cover, given their likely edge in talent and current form. BYU may struggle to keep the game within a field goal margin.
With Iowa State favored by 3.5 points, their recent form suggests they can cover the spread, especially given their superior defense and recent success in road games.
The line is modest (-3.5). Iowa State should be able to overcome BYU's home-court edge by a field-goal margin given the implied quality gap; however, home advantage and variance in college games lower confidence.
Iowa State's road favorite status at 3.5 points indicates the market perceives them as the better team despite playing in Provo. The modest spread size suggests a tight game, but if Iowa State's edge is real, they should be able to cover a small spread. The low confidence reflects that close games are inherently unpredictable.
Iowa State -3.5 is a narrow favorite; their defensive prowess should allow them to win by 4+ points against BYU at home.
At -3.5, ISU’s ball pressure and half-court defense can create separation if BYU’s threes don’t fall early. BYU’s shooting variance keeps this thinner than the ML edge, but ISU projects to win by two possessions slightly more often.
Moneyline
BYU Cougars +2.54 / Iowa State Cyclones +1.5492%
consensus
Iowa State Cyclones wins
13 models · avg conf 64%
BYU Cougars wins
BYU has a strong home court advantage and has performed well against teams of similar caliber. Their recent form suggests they have the upper hand.
Iowa State Cyclones wins
Iowa State is favored by -3.5 points even on the road, which strongly indicates they are expected to win the game outright by the oddsmakers.
Iowa State has been performing well this season, with a strong record against similar opponents. Their offensive and defensive metrics are superior to BYU's, making them the likely winner.
Iowa State has been a stronger team in recent NCAA basketball seasons, with a more consistent offense and defense compared to BYU. Their ability to perform on the road also gives them a slight edge.
Iowa State is priced as the favorite (-3.5) despite being on the road, indicating perceived matchup and quality advantage. That edge plus likely depth and consistency in conference play points to an Iowa State win.
Iowa State being a road favorite with a -3.5 spread indicates a significant perceived advantage over the home team. Their elite, high-pressure defense is known to travel well and can disrupt rhythm-based offensive teams like BYU, even in a tough environment.
Iowa State is favored on the spread, indicating they are the stronger team with better recent form in Big 12 matchups.
Iowa State is favored by 3.5 points, indicating oddsmakers view them as the stronger team. The Cyclones have been a consistent Big 12 contender with strong defensive metrics. As the road favorite, they're expected to have the edge despite playing at BYU's home court.
Iowa State is favored by 3.5 points on the road, indicating they are the stronger team. Road favorites in college basketball typically have a statistical edge, and the betting market respects their ability to win outright even in a hostile environment.
Iowa State being favored by 3.5 points on the road indicates significant respect from oddsmakers regarding their talent level and defensive prowess. In Big 12 play, road favorites are typically the superior team. While the Marriott Center is a difficult environment, Iowa State's defensive discipline should allow them to secure a close victory.
Iowa State is the favorite on the spread (-3.5) and the odds are balanced, implying a close game with the Cyclones holding a slight edge to win outright.
The betting market has Iowa State favored despite being on the road, suggesting oddsmakers view them as the stronger team. However, the 3.5-point spread is relatively modest, indicating this is a closely matched contest. Iowa State's road favorite status suggests they have favorable matchups or recent momentum, but the low confidence reflects the competitive nature of this matchup.
Market favors Iowa State on the road, reflecting their defense/turnover edge against BYU’s three-heavy, high-variance offense. If ISU controls possessions and limits clean perimeter looks, they have the matchup edge despite Provo’s home-court.
Over/Under
O/U 153.577%
consensus
Under
13 models · avg conf 58%
Over
A total of 155.5 is relatively high for NCAA Basketball, implying expectations of an efficient offensive game or a fast pace from both teams. Assuming both teams contribute to a competitive and high-scoring affair.
Both teams typically play at a pace that can yield higher-scoring games; 155.5 is within reach for a game featuring two capable offenses.
Both teams have shown the ability to score effectively, and the total set at 155.5 is reasonable given their offensive capabilities.
Under
The total of 155.5 is quite high for a game involving Iowa State's top-tier defense. The Cyclones excel at controlling the pace and forcing opponents into low-efficiency possessions. It is more likely they impose their defensive will than BYU turning this into a shootout, making the under the stronger play.
Both teams play strong defense in conference games, likely keeping the total score below 155.5 in a physical Big 12 battle.
155.5 is a medium total for a conference matchup. These games often feature tighter defenses and slower tempos late in the season, favoring the under.
Total of 155.5 is elevated by BYU’s pace, but Iowa State’s elite defense and turnover creation typically suppress efficiency. Expected scoring bands more often land in the high 140s to low 150s than above 155.
Iowa State traditionally plays a disciplined, slower-paced defensive style under T.J. Otzelberger. Conference games late in the season tend to be more physical and grind-oriented. The 155.5 total seems slightly inflated, and both teams' defensive tendencies suggest a lower-scoring affair around 145-152 points combined.
The 155.5 total suggests a moderate-paced game. The tight spread indicates this should be a competitive, defensive-minded contest where both teams focus on execution. Close games in college basketball often trend under as teams play more deliberately down the stretch and possessions become more valuable.
Both teams have shown tendencies to play slower-paced, defensive games in key matchups. A total of 155.5 seems slightly high, and the game may fall short of this mark.
Both teams have shown strong defensive capabilities, and while they can score, the total of 155.5 seems slightly high given the historical points scored in their matchups.
Iowa State's identity under T.J. Otzelberger is elite defense and slowing down opponent tempo. While BYU prefers a faster pace, ISU's ability to control the game clock and force tough half-court sets typically results in lower-scoring affairs. Big 12 conference games often feature physical defense that limits transition opportunities.
A 155.5-point total for a college basketball game suggests moderately-paced, defensive-minded teams. Without specific team tempo and defensive efficiency data available, this projection appears balanced. Slight lean toward under based on the total being set at a round number that often attracts equal action, but confidence is low due to insufficient team-specific information.