Back to Events
MLS 2/21/2026 at 07:30 PM

Charlotte FC

@

St. Louis City SC

Spread

St. Louis City SC -0.25 / Charlotte FC +0.25

85%

consensus

St. Louis City SC covers

13 models · avg conf 62%

St. Louis City SC covers (85%) Charlotte FC covers (15%)
11 models · avg 62% avg 59% · 2 models

St. Louis City SC covers

The most common spread is St. Louis City SC -0.25 with odds around 1.83, while Charlotte FC +0.25 is around 2.0. Given St. Louis's favoritism on the moneyline, they are expected to win outright, which would cover the -0.25 spread. Even with a -0.5 spread, St. Louis has viable odds, reinforcing the belief they will win by at least one goal.

Given the spread of -0.25, St. Louis City SC is expected to win by a close margin. The home advantage and their current form suggest they will cover the spread against Charlotte FC.

Grok 3
65%

St. Louis City SC is favored with a -0.25 spread at odds of 1.83 in most lines, and even at -0.5 with odds of 2.05 in one line. This suggests a slight edge to cover the spread, especially playing at home.

GPT-4o
65%

The spread consistently favors St. Louis City SC with a -0.25 line, indicating they are expected to win by at least a small margin. The odds for St. Louis covering this spread are slightly lower than even, suggesting a fair chance of covering.

St. Louis City SC is favored on the spread at -0.25 (most common) to -0.5 goals. The majority of books consistently offer the home team as slight favorites. The -0.25 line with 1.83 odds suggests sportsbooks expect St. Louis to win or draw, with slight edge. Charlotte's +0.25/+0.5 lines at 1.69-2.0 imply defensive concerns for the home team.

GPT-5
62%

Asian handicap shows St. Louis City SC -0.25 at ~1.83 vs Charlotte +0.25 at ~2.00, signaling a small but clear edge to the home side; -0.25 provides partial draw protection.

Spread commonly offered as -0.25 for St. Louis City SC (1.83). Home-field advantage and typical MLS dynamics make the home team more likely to cover a -0.25 spread than the visitor.

Grok 4
58%

Spreads like -0.25 at 1.83 favor St. Louis to win or draw, with patterns showing home team edge in close MLS matchups.

Books show a tight handicap (mostly -0.25, some -0.5). That implies a narrow win expectation — prefer St. Louis to cover a small spread (or earn a half-push on -0.25) given home edge and consensus lines.

GLM-5
55%

The consistent -0.25 spread line at 1.83 odds across multiple books shows market confidence in St. Louis avoiding defeat. This spread essentially offers a half-push on a draw, making it a solid play for a home side expected to control the match. Charlotte's road struggles support St. Louis covering.

St. Louis City SC is favored at -0.25 (Asian handicap) at 1.83 odds across most books, with one book offering -0.5 at 2.05. The -0.25 line means a draw results in half the stake returned. Given the home advantage and slight favorite status, St. Louis covering the quarter-goal spread is marginally favorable, though this is essentially a pick'em with slight home lean. The tight spread reflects expected competitive match.

Charlotte FC covers

The odds on Charlotte FC covering a +0.5 spread are notably low (around 1.69), indicating a strong market sentiment that they will either win or draw. This suggests that while St. Louis is favored to win, a very close game is expected, giving value to Charlotte FC covering the spread.

Charlotte FC at +0.25/+0.5 offers value. The Asian handicap of +0.25 means Charlotte only needs to avoid defeat to push/win, while the +0.5 line provides insurance against a one-goal loss. With odds of 1.69-2.00 on Charlotte's spread, the market expects a tight match. MLS games are often close, and this spread protection makes Charlotte the safer play.

Moneyline

St. Louis City SC +2.25 / Charlotte FC +2.85

100%

consensus

St. Louis City SC wins

13 models · avg conf 66%

St. Louis City SC wins (100%) Charlotte FC wins (0%)
13 models · avg 66% avg 0% · 0 models

St. Louis City SC wins

St. Louis City SC is consistently favored across all provided moneyline odds, with their odds ranging from 2.0 to 2.1, significantly lower than Charlotte FC's odds (3.1 to 3.45). This indicates a strong market expectation for a St. Louis victory at home.

Grok 3
70%

St. Louis City SC consistently shows as the favorite across multiple moneyline odds (ranging from 2.00 to 2.10), indicating stronger market confidence in their ability to win at home against Charlotte FC, whose odds range from 3.10 to 3.45.

GPT-4o
70%

St. Louis City SC is favored in the majority of the moneyline odds, indicating bookmakers see them as the stronger team. The consistent odds around 2.0 suggest a higher probability of winning compared to Charlotte FC, whose odds are consistently above 3.0.

St. Louis City SC has lower odds, indicating stronger market confidence. They are playing at home, which typically provides an advantage, and they have been performing well in recent matches.

St. Louis City SC is heavily favored across all sportsbooks with consistent moneyline odds of 2.0-2.1 (implied win probability ~48-50%), compared to Charlotte FC at 3.1-3.45 (implied probability ~29-32%). The consistency of these odds across multiple books suggests strong market confidence in St. Louis as the home team. However, confidence is moderate as MLS matches are inherently competitive.

Home favorite across most bookmakers with moneylines around 2.05–2.10 for St. Louis vs. Charlotte at ~3.25–3.27; implies higher win probability for St. Louis City SC.

Grok 4
65%

St. Louis is consistently favored across multiple moneyline odds (around 2.0-2.1), indicating a home advantage and stronger team form against Charlotte.

St. Louis City SC is the consistent home favorite across all available odds, with an implied probability of winning hovering near 50%. In MLS, home-field advantage is a significant factor, making the favorite a logical choice for the outright win.

Consensus across multiple books makes St. Louis the clear favorite (ML ~2.00–2.10) and they have home advantage; the market gap vs Charlotte is meaningful but not large, so pick the home side with moderate confidence.

St. Louis City SC is favored at home with consistent odds around 2.00-2.10 across all books, implying approximately 48% win probability. The home advantage in MLS is significant, and the market shows clear favoritism toward the home side with Charlotte's odds ranging from 3.10-3.45.

The odds consistently favor St. Louis City SC as home favorites across all sportsbooks (ranging from 2.00-2.10), implying approximately 48-50% win probability. Home field advantage in MLS is significant, and the consistent pricing suggests market consensus on St. Louis being the stronger side in this matchup. However, the relatively close odds indicate this is not a dominant favorite situation.

GPT-5
58%

Across books the home side sits ~2.00–2.10 vs Charlotte ~3.10–3.45, implying a modest home edge. Market consensus and Asian lines back STL as slight favorite.

GLM-5
58%

St. Louis City SC is the clear home favorite with odds averaging around 2.05-2.10, implying approximately 48% win probability. Home advantage in MLS is significant, with home teams historically winning ~45-50% of matches. Charlotte FC's away odds (3.1-3.45) suggest only ~30% win probability, indicating they are expected to struggle on the road.

Over/Under

O/U 2.75

77%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 61%

Over (77%) Under (23%)
10 models · avg 61% avg 59% · 3 models

Over

The betting market strongly indicates a high-scoring affair. The odds for Over 2.5 goals are heavily juiced (around 1.63), implying a high probability of at least three goals being scored. The primary line being set at 2.75 further supports the expectation of an open, offensive game.

The odds for Over 2.5 goals (1.63) are notably lower than Under 2.5 goals (2.15-2.23). Similarly, for the 2.75 line, Over (1.83) is slightly favored over Under (2.0). This consistent trend suggests the bookmakers anticipate a game with at least three goals.

Totals lines show Over 2.75 at around 1.83 in multiple markets, and MLS matchups often trend toward at least 3 goals on this level, supporting an Over prediction.

Totals markets cluster at 2.5–2.75 with shorter juice on the over, indicating books expect goals and early market demand for overs; take Over (moderate confidence given typical MLS scoring variability).

Grok 3
60%

The totals line is predominantly set at 2.75 with odds of 1.83 for over, and in some cases at 2.5 with odds of 1.63 for over. This indicates a market expectation for a moderately high-scoring game, likely due to offensive tendencies or defensive vulnerabilities of the teams.

Considering the odds for over 2.75 at 1.83, and both teams' offensive capabilities, there is a reasonable expectation for a higher-scoring game, favoring the over.

GPT-4o
60%

The totals line is primarily set at 2.75 with odds favoring the over at 1.83, suggesting an expectation of a relatively high-scoring game. This is further supported by the alternate total of 2.5 having lower odds for the over, indicating a slight lean towards more goals being scored.

GPT-5
56%

Totals shaded to the over (2.75 at ~1.83, 2.5 over ~1.63) suggest an expectation near 2.8–2.9 goals; value leans to over 2.75.

Most books set the total at 2.75 with over priced at 1.83, while some offer 2.5 at 1.63. The juiced over price at 2.5 suggests books expect goals. St. Louis City SC historically plays an attacking style at home, and MLS matches frequently produce 3+ goals. The 2.75 line requires 3 goals to fully cash, which aligns with typical MLS scoring patterns. Early season matches (February) can be unpredictable, but attacking intent from both expansion-era teams supports the over.

Grok 4
55%

Totals lines at 2.5-2.75 with Over odds around 1.63-1.83 suggest a slight lean towards higher scoring, based on varying book estimates and typical MLS game patterns.

Under

The under is favored at 2.00-2.23 for both the 2.5 and 2.75 totals, indicating the bookmakers expect a lower-scoring affair. Early season MLS matches (February) often feature cautious play as teams find rhythm. The tight spread also suggests a defensive, competitive match. With the total set at 2.5-2.75 goals and the under getting better odds, this represents solid value.

Under is favored across most totals lines (2.0-2.23 odds vs 1.63-1.83 for Over). The most common total of 2.75 goals leans slightly toward Under. This suggests sportsbooks expect a relatively low-scoring match, typical of early season MLS matchups. The consistency of Under odds across books indicates market consensus for a defensive or cautious contest.

GLM-5
52%

The total line sits at 2.5-2.75 across books, which is relatively low for MLS standards. Early season matches in February often produce tighter, more cautious affairs. The Under 2.5 at 2.15-2.23 odds offers value, as both teams may still be finding their offensive rhythm early in the 2026 campaign.

© 2026 Airena

TBD