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NBA 2/21/2026 at 01:10 AM

Milwaukee Bucks

@

New Orleans Pelicans

Spread

New Orleans Pelicans -3 / Milwaukee Bucks +3

77%

consensus

New Orleans Pelicans covers

13 models · avg conf 63%

New Orleans Pelicans covers (77%) Milwaukee Bucks covers (23%)
10 models · avg 63% avg 55% · 3 models

New Orleans Pelicans covers

Spread lines show Pelicans favored by 3.5–4.0 points. As the home team, they are well-positioned to cover versus a strong Bucks squad.

Given the Pelicans are favored on the moneyline and the spread is a modest -3.5 to -4, they are expected to win by at least this margin at home. A home favorite winning outright often covers such a spread.

With the spread set at -4 for the Pelicans, their strong home performance suggests they will cover the spread against the Bucks.

Grok 3
65%

The Pelicans are favored by -3.5 to -4 points across the lines, suggesting they are expected to win by a small but significant margin. Their home advantage supports covering the spread.

GPT-4o
65%

The odds are showing a consistent spread favoring the Pelicans by 3.5 to 4 points. Given their status as favorites and playing at home, they have a strong chance of covering the spread.

The Pelicans are favored by 3.5-4 points across multiple sportsbooks. Consistent -3.5 to -4 spreads suggest analytical agreement on the gap between teams. Home court advantage typically supports smaller spreads being covered. The symmetric odds (1.91 on both sides) indicate fair market pricing, reducing edge, but directional bias favors the home team.

Lines around -3.5 to -4 indicate a one-possession game. Given the home favoritism and the tight spread, the Pelicans are slightly more likely to cover, but outcome is close so confidence is moderate.

Grok 4
55%

Spreads vary between -3.5 and -4 for Pelicans; average implies they win by about 3.75 points, but team matchup favors home covering against a potentially fatigued away team.

GPT-5
54%

Consensus line sits -3.5/-4. With ML edge to Pelicans, slight lean to Pelicans covering small number at home.

GLM-5
54%

With the spread set between -3.5 and -4, the oddsmakers anticipate a competitive but decisive victory for New Orleans. Home-court advantage in the NBA typically accounts for 2-3 points, suggesting the Pelicans are the stronger team on a neutral floor as well. We predict they win by 5-8 points, covering the spread.

Milwaukee Bucks covers

The spread ranges between -3.5 and -4 points for the Pelicans. While New Orleans is favored to win, Milwaukee has the talent to keep it competitive. The Bucks' +4 provides a valuable cushion - they don't need to win outright, just keep it within a single possession. This is a relatively small spread for a home favorite, suggesting a close game where the underdog can cover.

With a tight spread of 3.5 to 4 points, a close game is expected. The Milwaukee Bucks are a strong enough team to keep the game within that margin, even in a loss. Underdogs often hold value on small spreads.

While the Pelicans should win, the 3.5-4 point spread is relatively tight for a home favorite. Milwaukee has elite talent capable of keeping games close, and road underdogs in the 3-5 point range historically cover at a reasonable rate in the NBA. The slight variation in spreads (3.5 vs 4) across books indicates some uncertainty, suggesting taking the points with the Bucks at +4.

Moneyline

New Orleans Pelicans +1.61 / Milwaukee Bucks +2.32

100%

consensus

New Orleans Pelicans wins

13 models · avg conf 68%

New Orleans Pelicans wins (100%) Milwaukee Bucks wins (0%)
13 models · avg 68% avg 0% · 0 models

New Orleans Pelicans wins

The New Orleans Pelicans are consistently favored across all provided moneyline odds (1.57-1.65), indicating bookmakers see them as the more likely winner, especially with home-court advantage.

Pelicans are the home favorite across the odds (decimal ~1.57–1.65) with the Bucks priced as underdogs (~2.3–2.46). Home-court advantage and current form support New Orleans.

The Pelicans have home-court advantage and a better overall recent performance, reflected in the odds.

Grok 3
70%

The Pelicans have consistently lower odds across multiple lines (1.57 to 1.65) compared to the Bucks (2.3 to 2.46), indicating strong market confidence in their ability to win at home.

GPT-4o
70%

The Pelicans have favorable odds with a lower moneyline, indicating they are the favorites. As the home team, they are likely to have the advantage in this matchup.

The Pelicans are consistent home favorites with odds ranging from 1.57-1.65, indicating strong market confidence. The moneyline suggests approximately 60-63% implied probability of a Pelicans victory. Home court advantage is significant in the NBA, and the betting market clearly favors New Orleans.

The betting markets consistently favor the Pelicans at home with odds of 1.57-1.65, implying approximately 60-64% win probability. Home court advantage combined with the market consensus suggests the Pelicans are the stronger team in this matchup. However, the Bucks' odds (2.30-2.46) indicate they remain competitive.

The Pelicans are the consistent favorites across all provided betting lines and benefit from home-court advantage. The odds (1.57-1.65) imply a significantly higher probability of winning compared to the Bucks.

Grok 4
65%

Pelicans are favored across all listed moneyline odds (ranging from 1.57 to 1.65), implying a 60-64% win probability; slight line movement suggests some value on Bucks but home advantage tips it to Pelicans.

GLM-5
65%

The consistent moneyline odds averaging around 1.57 imply a high probability of victory for the Pelicans. As the home team favored by roughly 4 points, the market strongly indicates they are the superior side in this matchup.

GPT-5
63%

Market implies ~60–64% for Pelicans at home (ML 1.57–1.65). Slight but consistent favorite across books.

The Pelicans are clear home favorites with implied probability around 61-64% across bookmakers. Home court advantage in the NBA is significant, and the consistent pricing across multiple books suggests the market is confident in New Orleans. The Bucks traveling for a late-night game (1:10 AM local context suggests potential schedule disadvantage) further supports the home favorite.

Market consistently grades New Orleans as the favorite (implied win probability ~60–64%). Home-court edge and a narrow but persistent market bias toward the Pelicans make them the safer straight-up pick.

Over/Under

O/U 222.5

69%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 60%

Over (69%) Under (31%)
9 models · avg 60% avg 56% · 4 models

Over

The total is set around 224.5-225.5, which is a fairly standard high total for an NBA game. Both the Pelicans and Bucks possess significant offensive talent, suggesting a competitive and high-scoring affair.

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities that could lead to a high-scoring game, making the over on the totals a likely outcome.

The total is set at 224.5-225.5 points. Both teams typically play up-tempo styles capable of high-scoring outputs. Milwaukee, even without full context, historically features efficient offense, and the Pelicans at home tend to push pace. The betting lines are tightly balanced at 1.91, but the slight variance suggests market uncertainty, favoring the over in what projects as a competitive, offense-driven matchup.

Both teams have capable offenses and pace; the 224.5–225.5 line is typical for a game that could trend higher, though defensive effort could keep it close.

Grok 3
60%

The total points line ranges from 224.5 to 225.5, which is moderate for an NBA game. Both teams have high-scoring potential, making the over a slight favorite.

Both the Pelicans and Bucks possess significant offensive firepower. The total line of 224.5/225.5 is moderate for two teams with the ability to score efficiently, suggesting the game has a strong chance to exceed this total.

Grok 4
60%

Totals line shifted from 224.5 to 225.5, indicating market expectation of higher scoring; both teams have high-paced offenses likely to push past the over.

Totals clustered at 224.5–225.5 and both teams tend to be involved in games with solid offensive output; pace and scoring potential suggest a mild lean to the over.

GPT-5
54%

Total 224.5–225.5 aligns with two capable offenses; slight tilt to a game landing mid-to-high 220s.

Under

GPT-4o
60%

The total points line is set around 224.5 to 225.5. Both teams have capable defenses, and recent matchups suggest a potential for a game with fewer points than the line suggests.

Totals are set between 224.5-225.5, suggesting expected combined scoring around 225 points. The symmetric odds (1.91 both sides) indicate balanced market perception. Recent NBA trends show defensive improvements, and the early game time (1:10 AM) may result in lower-paced play. Slight lean to under due to market equilibrium favoring defensive/cautious scenarios.

The total sits at 224.5-225.5, which is moderate for modern NBA standards. Both teams feature strong defensive anchors when healthy, and competitive games between playoff-caliber teams often see more half-court execution rather than transition scoring. The tight spread suggests a closely contested game where pace may slow in crucial moments, favoring the under slightly.

GLM-5
52%

The total lines fluctuating between 224.5 and 225.5 suggest a high-scoring game, but these numbers are right on the fringe of typical defensive battles. Without specific offensive firepower data for the 2026 rosters, the slight lean is toward the Under, anticipating playoff-caliber defense from both sides in a nationally televised spot.

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