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NHL 2/26/2026 at 12:30 AM

Toronto Maple Leafs

@

Tampa Bay Lightning

Spread

77%

consensus

Tampa Bay Lightning covers

13 models · avg conf 62%

Tampa Bay Lightning covers (77%) Toronto Maple Leafs covers (23%)
10 models · avg 62% avg 59% · 3 models

Tampa Bay Lightning covers

Given the Lightning's home performance and their ability to control games, they are likely to cover the spread. The Maple Leafs have struggled in away games against top teams.

GPT-4o
70%

Given the odds and Tampa Bay's strong performance at home, it's likely they will cover the spread. Toronto has struggled in away games historically, which contributes to this prediction.

Grok 4
65%

Assuming standard NHL puck line of -1.5, Lightning's offensive edge should cover at home.

Grok 3
65%

Given the moneyline odds disparity, Tampa Bay is likely to cover a standard -1.5 goal spread at home, especially considering their consistent scoring ability and home advantage.

Given the strong moneyline odds for Tampa Bay, they are expected not just to win, but to do so by a margin that would cover a typical -1.5 puck line against the Maple Leafs. While NHL games can be close, the implied strength suggests a multi-goal victory is plausible.

As the favorite at home, Tampa Bay is likelier to win by more than a one-goal spread, allowing them to cover a typical -1.0 to -1.5 goal line while Maple Leafs would need a narrow loss or upset.

Tampa Bay's favorable moneyline odds suggest they should win by a margin. Home teams in the NHL typically perform well in spread scenarios. The odds differential (1.5 vs 2.6) indicates a meaningful expected margin, though without specific spread values, confidence is moderate.

Favorites at home are more likely to cover the typical NHL spread/puckline. Expect Tampa Bay to control enough of the game to cover a one-goal margin, though pucklines can be volatile so confidence is moderate.

GLM-5
55%

Tampa Bay should cover a standard -1.5 puck line at home against a divisional opponent. The Lightning have historically performed well at Amalie Arena, and the odds suggest a multi-goal victory is the more likely outcome. Toronto's defensive inconsistencies on the road further support this.

GPT-5
54%

With a heavy favorite, the win distribution gives a fair chance to clear -1.5 (including empty-net potential), though NHL variance keeps confidence moderate.

Toronto Maple Leafs covers

While Tampa is favored to win, games between these two offensive powerhouses are frequently close. The Toronto Maple Leafs possess enough scoring talent to keep the game within a single goal. The +1.5 puck line for the underdog offers good value in what is expected to be a competitive game.

While Tampa Bay should win outright, the Leafs at 2.6 odds suggest they're competitive enough to keep it close. Toronto's offensive firepower with Matthews and Marner typically keeps them within striking distance. Taking the Leafs with the puck line (+1.5) offers value as these divisional matchups tend to be tight, often decided by one goal.

While Tampa Bay is favored to win, the Maple Leafs have the offensive firepower to keep games close. Toronto typically doesn't get blown out against quality opponents, and a standard -1.5 puck line for Tampa at these odds offers value on the Leafs covering. Expect a competitive 1-goal margin game.

Moneyline

Tampa Bay Lightning +1.47 / Toronto Maple Leafs +2.75

100%

consensus

Tampa Bay Lightning wins

13 models · avg conf 71%

Tampa Bay Lightning wins (100%) Toronto Maple Leafs wins (0%)
13 models · avg 71% avg 0% · 0 models

Tampa Bay Lightning wins

Tampa Bay is a significant moneyline favorite at 1.5, implying a strong probability of victory according to the oddsmakers. This indicates they are the more likely team to win outright.

The Lightning have a strong home record and have performed well against the Maple Leafs in recent matchups. Their offensive capabilities and home-ice advantage give them the edge.

The moneyline odds of 1.5 heavily favor the Lightning, implying a 66.7% win probability. Tampa Bay's strong home-ice advantage and experienced core give them a significant edge in this matchup against a division rival.

GPT-4o
75%

Tampa Bay Lightning has favorable odds and is playing at home, which gives them a statistical advantage. Additionally, they have a strong home record and often perform well against Toronto.

The Lightning are significant favorites at 1.5 odds (implied probability ~67%) playing at home. The moneyline indicates oddsmakers view Tampa Bay as having a clear advantage. Home ice advantage in a Lightning-Leafs matchup historically favors Tampa Bay, especially given their playoff success against Toronto.

The Lightning are the clear moneyline favorite (1.50 decimal ≈ 66–67% implied). Home-ice advantage plus market pricing indicate Tampa Bay is expected to win; Toronto can upset but market edge favors Tampa.

Grok 3
70%

Tampa Bay Lightning are favored with odds of 1.5, indicating a higher implied probability of winning. Their historical performance at home against Toronto and strong defensive record support this prediction.

Grok 4
70%

Lightning are favorites at 1.5 odds, with strong home performance and recent form against Leafs.

Lightning are the home favorite with a roughly 66-67% implied probability from the given odds. Home ice and overall depth give them an edge in this matchup.

GLM-5
68%

Tampa Bay is a significant home favorite at 1.5 odds, implying approximately 67% win probability. Home ice advantage in a divisional rivalry, combined with the oddsmakers' clear lean toward the Lightning, supports this pick. However, Toronto remains a dangerous offensive team, preventing higher confidence.

The odds heavily favor Tampa Bay (1.5 vs 2.6), indicating strong market confidence in the home team. Tampa Bay's lower odds suggest they are the preferred pick, and home ice advantage in NHL is significant. However, Toronto's competitive nature keeps confidence from being higher.

GPT-5
64%

Market makes Tampa a strong home favorite (1.5 ≈ 67% implied). Home ice and matchup context suggest they win more often than not.

The odds heavily favor Tampa Bay at home (1.5 implied probability ~67%). The Lightning historically perform well at Amalie Arena, and the significant odds differential suggests bookmakers see a clear advantage. Toronto's struggles in big road games against elite competition factor into this assessment.

Over/Under

100%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 60%

Over (100%) Under (0%)
13 models · avg 60% avg 0% · 0 models

Over

Both the Lightning and Maple Leafs are consistently ranked among the league's top offensive teams. Matchups between them historically feature high goal counts due to elite forward groups and potent power plays. Expect a fast-paced game with plenty of scoring chances, pushing the total over the typical line of 6.5 goals.

Both teams have high-scoring offenses and the potential for an exciting matchup. Historical games between them have often exceeded typical scoring thresholds.

Both teams feature elite offensive talent and can score in bunches. Tampa Bay's high-powered offense against Toronto's sometimes inconsistent defense typically produces high-scoring affairs. The Lightning-Leafs matchups historically trend toward offensive games with both teams capable of 3+ goals. Expect an entertaining, goal-filled contest.

GPT-4o
65%

Both teams have high-scoring capabilities, and recent matchups between these teams have tended to be high-scoring. This makes the over a plausible outcome.

GLM-5
60%

Both teams feature high-powered offenses with elite talent. Tampa Bay and Toronto consistently rank among the NHL's top scoring teams, and their head-to-head matchups often produce high-scoring affairs. Expect both power plays to see opportunities in what should be an up-tempo Atlantic Division clash.

Grok 4
60%

Both teams have high-scoring offenses; expect over 6.5 goals based on historical matchups.

Grok 3
60%

Both teams have high-powered offenses, and recent head-to-head matchups often result in high-scoring games. A typical NHL over/under of 6.5 goals is likely to be surpassed.

Both teams feature high-powered offenses with elite scoring talent. Lightning vs Leafs matchups historically produce goals, with both teams capable of lighting the lamp in bunches. Assuming a standard total around 6-6.5, the offensive capabilities of both squads lean toward the over in this divisional-style matchup.

GPT-5
56%

Both offenses have high-end scoring and power-play upside; game profile skews toward higher event counts and 6+ goals.

The Lightning and Maple Leafs both field potent offenses, and their meetings tend to produce multiple goals. A pace-filled game with special-teams chances makes the over a plausible outcome, though strong goaltending could keep it lower.

Both clubs generally support offense and special-teams scoring, increasing the chance of multiple goals. Expect a moderately open game with scoring opportunities — lean to the over with modest confidence.

Both teams are NHL franchises capable of offensive production. Toronto's Maple Leafs historically have high-scoring tendencies, and Tampa Bay's Lightning are also known for dynamic offense. Without specific total line information, this is a slight lean toward over based on typical NHL scoring patterns between competitive teams.

Both the Lightning and Maple Leafs are known for their potent offensive lineups and star power. This matchup frequently results in higher-scoring games, suggesting that the goal total is likely to go 'over' a typical NHL line, though a specific line was not provided.

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TBD