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English Premier League 2/27/2026 at 08:00 PM

Aston Villa

@

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Spread

Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.5 / Aston Villa -0.5

100%

consensus

Aston Villa covers

13 models · avg conf 66%

Wolverhampton Wanderers covers (0%) Aston Villa covers (100%)
0 models · avg 0% avg 66% · 13 models

Aston Villa covers

Aston Villa is favored at -0.5 (1.76), indicating the market expects them not just to win, but to win by at least one goal. This aligns with their strong moneyline favoritism.

Grok 3
70%

Aston Villa at -0.5 (1.76) implies they are expected to win by at least one goal. Given their moneyline favoritism, they are likely to cover this narrow spread against Wolverhampton Wanderers, who would need a draw or win to cover.

GPT-4o
70%

The spread indicates Aston Villa is expected to win by more than 0.5 goals. Given their strong odds and form, they are likely to cover the spread.

With Aston Villa favored at -0.5, they have shown the ability to secure narrow victories. Given their current form, they are likely to cover the spread against Wolverhampton.

Aston Villa -0.5 spread at 1.76 odds aligns with moneyline consensus. The -0.5 spread effectively requires Villa to win or draw, which is heavily favored given their 1.78 moneyline odds. Wolverhampton +0.5 at 1.95 suggests bookmakers expect Villa to control the match, making the away cover the more probabilistically sound choice.

Villa at -0.5 (1.76) represents an Asian handicap where they must win outright. The odds are slightly better than their moneyline, offering marginal value. Given the market's strong confidence in Villa and the small spread of just half a goal, backing Villa to cover appears favorable. The correlation between moneyline strength and spread suggests Villa should win by at least one goal.

The spread for Aston Villa is -0.5, which requires them to win the match outright. As they are the moneyline favorite, this is the most logical outcome. The odds of 1.76 for them to cover are only slightly lower than their moneyline price, indicating market confidence in a victory.

Aston Villa -0.5 at 1.76 odds indicates bookmakers expect Villa to win outright. The spread is essentially a 'win by any margin' line. Villa's attacking options and Wolves' historical struggles against top-half opponents suggest Villa can secure at least a one-goal victory. The relatively tight spread odds (1.76 vs 1.95) show confidence in Villa covering.

Grok 4
65%

Aston Villa at -0.5 (1.76) is slightly favored over Wolverhampton +0.5 (1.95), suggesting Villa will win outright and cover, based on their favoritism in the lines.

Villa are priced at -0.5 (around 1.76–1.95 across books), meaning the market expects them to win outright. Given the moneyline edge and narrow spread, Villa are the likeliest side to cover.

Villa -0.5 is priced around 1.76, indicating the market expects Villa to win by at least one goal; Wolves +0.5 at about 1.95 offers a viable hedge but Villa is favored to cover.

GPT-5
60%

Aston Villa -0.5 at ~1.76 mirrors the moneyline edge; pricing implies a higher likelihood Villa wins by a single goal.

GLM-5
58%

Aston Villa -0.5 offers reasonable value at 1.76 odds. The spread aligns with the moneyline indicating Villa is expected to win by at least one goal. Wolves' home advantage keeps this competitive, but Villa's superior quality should see them cover in a close match.

Moneyline

Wolverhampton Wanderers +4 / Aston Villa +1.83

100%

consensus

Aston Villa wins

13 models · avg conf 71%

Wolverhampton Wanderers wins (0%) Aston Villa wins (100%)
0 models · avg 0% avg 71% · 13 models

Aston Villa wins

Aston Villa is the clear favorite across all moneyline odds, consistently priced significantly lower than Wolverhampton Wanderers. The market expects them to secure the win.

Grok 3
75%

Aston Villa is heavily favored with odds around 1.77-1.78 across multiple lines, indicating strong market confidence in their ability to win. Wolverhampton Wanderers' odds of 4.2-4.5 suggest they are significant underdogs, likely due to form or historical matchups.

GPT-4o
75%

Aston Villa's odds are significantly lower, indicating they are the favorites. Their recent form and head-to-head performance against Wolverhampton suggest a higher probability of winning.

Aston Villa has a stronger recent form and a better head-to-head record against Wolverhampton. Their lower moneyline odds suggest they are favored to win this matchup.

Aston Villa's odds of 1.78 reflect a clear market consensus favoring the away team. The consistent pricing across multiple sportsbooks (1.77-1.78) suggests strong analytical backing. Wolverhampton's 4.2-4.5 odds indicate significant underdog status, suggesting Villa possesses superior form, head-to-head record, or current squad strength.

The odds strongly favor Aston Villa (1.77-1.78) over Wolverhampton (4.2-4.5), implying approximately 55-57% win probability for Villa. Aston Villa has established themselves as a top-half Premier League side with superior squad depth and quality. The West Midlands derby factor adds intensity, but Villa's away form and overall consistency make them the clear favorite in this matchup.

Aston Villa are heavy favorites with odds around 1.77-1.78 across multiple bookmakers, implying approximately 56% probability. The consistency in odds suggests strong market consensus on Villa's superiority. Wolves' odds of 4.2-4.5 indicate they're significant underdogs at home, reflecting likely current form and quality differential.

Grok 4
70%

Aston Villa is heavily favored in the moneyline odds (around 1.77-1.78), indicating strong market expectation of their win over underdog Wolverhampton (4.2-4.5), likely due to superior form and matchup advantages.

Aston Villa is the consistent and significant favorite across all provided betting lines, with odds around 1.78. This implies a statistical probability of winning of approximately 56%, making them the clear choice over the home underdog, Wolverhampton.

Market strongly favors Villa (consensus moneyline ~1.77) implying a clear probability edge. Villa have the stronger odds profile here and the book prices consistently make them favorites despite Wolves being at home.

Villa is the favorite on the moneyline (approx. 1.77–1.78) vs Wolves (≈4.2–4.5). Home-field for Wolves is present, but Villa's current odds suggest a higher probability of winning.

GPT-5
62%

Market clusters Villa around 1.77–1.78 (implied ~56–57%) versus Wolves 4.2–4.5 (~22–24%), indicating a clear away edge consistent across books.

GLM-5
62%

Aston Villa enters as clear favorites with odds around 1.78, implying approximately 56% win probability. Villa has established themselves as a top-half Premier League side with stronger squad depth and attacking quality. Wolves' high odds (4.2-4.5) reflect their underdog status and potential struggles this season.

Over/Under

O/U 2.5

69%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 62%

Over (69%) Under (31%)
9 models · avg 62% avg 59% · 4 models

Over

The odds for Over 2.5 goals are consistently lower (around 1.75-1.76) compared to Under 2.5 goals (around 1.96-2.05). This suggests the market anticipates a match with at least three goals, likely driven by Aston Villa's attacking capabilities.

Both teams have shown offensive potential, and the over/under odds indicate a slight lean towards scoring. Historical matches between these teams have also tended to have higher total goals.

GPT-4o
65%

The odds slightly favor over 2.5 goals. Both teams have shown the potential for high-scoring matches in recent games, suggesting a likelihood of more than 2.5 goals.

The odds for Over 2.5 goals are consistently lower (around 1.75) than the odds for the Under. This indicates that the betting market anticipates a relatively open game with at least three goals being scored between the two teams.

Grok 4
60%

Over 2.5 goals is favored at 1.75-1.76 compared to Under at 1.96-2.05, pointing to expectations of a higher-scoring game, possibly from Villa's attacking strength.

Over 2.5 is available at roughly 1.75–1.76, while Under 2.5 sits higher (≈1.96–2.05), suggesting markets anticipate a 3-goal or more match more likely given attacking capabilities.

GPT-5
59%

Over 2.5 is favored at 1.75–1.76 across quotes, implying elevated goal expectancy (roughly 2.7+). Likeliest script is a 1–2 type result.

Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.75-1.76, indicating bookmakers lean toward a higher-scoring affair. Derbies between these teams often produce goals due to the open, attacking nature of play. Aston Villa's offensive capabilities combined with Wolves potentially needing to push forward creates goal-scoring opportunities. However, confidence is moderate as Wolves can be defensively stubborn at Molineux.

Books consistently favor Over 2.5 at shorter prices (~1.75–1.76). Combined with typical EPL scoring rates and Villa’s attacking profile implied by the market, Over 2.5 is the market-leaning play.

Under

Under 2.5 odds range from 1.96-2.05 compared to Over at 1.75-1.76, indicating bookmakers expect a relatively low-scoring affair. The consistent preference for Under across multiple books suggests defensive solidity or reduced attacking output is anticipated. In a match where one team is heavily favored, compressed attacking sequences often result in fewer total goals.

Grok 3
60%

The odds for Under 2.5 goals have shifted to a more favorable 1.96-2.05, suggesting a slight market lean towards a low-scoring game. Matches between mid-tier Premier League teams like these can often be tight and defensive, supporting an under prediction.

The totals market shows slight movement with Under 2.5 odds improving from 1.96 to 2.05, indicating potential late money on the under. While Over 2.5 at 1.75-1.76 suggests a moderate scoring expectation, the market efficiency and improved under odds suggest value. Premier League matches involving struggling home sides often see the away favorite control tempo and limit goals, particularly when protecting a lead.

GLM-5
55%

Despite slight odds favoring Over 2.5 (1.75-1.76), this projects as a tactical, cagey affair. Wolves typically play conservatively at home against superior opposition. A 1-0 or 2-0 Villa victory, or even a 1-1 draw, are likely scenarios. The Under offers better value at 1.96-2.05 odds.

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