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NCAA Basketball 2/20/2026 at 01:00 AM

Arkansas St Red Wolves

@

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Spread

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +8.5 / Arkansas St Red Wolves -8.5

54%

consensus

Arkansas St Red Wolves covers

13 models · avg conf 68%

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns covers (46%) Arkansas St Red Wolves covers (54%)
6 models · avg 59% avg 68% · 7 models

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns covers

While Arkansas St is a strong favorite to win, the spread has shifted to -8.5 for Arkansas St with slightly better odds (1.98) compared to Louisiana +8.5 (1.83). This suggests the market sees value in Louisiana covering the +8.5, indicating they might keep the game within a single-digit margin despite Arkansas St's likely win.

While Arkansas State is favored to win, the 8-8.5 point spread is substantial in college basketball. Louisiana playing at home provides a significant advantage worth 3-4 points typically. The spread has slight movement from 8 to 8.5 with better odds on the underdog at some books, suggesting sharp money may be on Louisiana. Home dogs in conference play often cover even when losing outright.

A spread of +8.5 points is significant for a home team. While Arkansas St is heavily favored, the line movement from 8 to 8.5 with less favorable odds on Louisiana (+8.5 at 1.83) suggests bookmakers are encouraging bets on the home underdog. Covering a large spread is difficult, especially on the road, giving value to the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.

GLM-5
58%

Louisiana is getting 8+ points at home in a conference matchup. Home underdogs receiving this many points in Sun Belt conference games historically cover at a solid rate. The line movement from 8 to 8.5 suggests oddsmakers are adjusting, but laying double-digit effective points on the road is difficult.

GPT-5
57%

At +8.5 the home dog is shorter priced (1.83 vs 1.98 on -8.5), suggesting a slight edge for Louisiana to stay within the number.

While Arkansas State should win outright, 8 points is a large spread for a Sun Belt Conference road game. Home court advantage in college basketball typically accounts for 3-4 points. Louisiana at home often plays more competitively, and the slight line movement to 8.5 at one book suggests some sharp action may be leaning toward the home underdog. Taking the points with Louisiana in what projects to be a competitive conference game.

Arkansas St Red Wolves covers

The away team (Arkansas St Red Wolves) is favored by roughly 8 to 8.5 points across multiple lines, suggesting they are likely to win by a margin that covers the spread.

Grok 3
70%

Arkansas St Red Wolves are favored by 8 to 8.5 points across different lines with competitive odds (1.91 to 1.98). The consistency in the spread suggests they are expected to win by a significant margin, likely covering the spread.

GPT-4o
70%

The spread line consistently favors Arkansas St Red Wolves to cover an 8 to 8.5 point margin. Given their strong overall performance and market confidence, they are likely to cover the spread.

With the Ragin' Cajuns favored by a significant margin, the Red Wolves are likely to cover the spread, especially given their ability to stay competitive in away games.

Arkansas St is favored by 8-8.5 points across all sportsbooks, a significant margin that suggests the market views them as the clearly superior team. The consistency of this spread (8 to 8.5 points) across multiple books indicates confidence in this line. Arkansas St should cover the spread with a comfortable victory.

Books are centering the line around Arkansas St -8 to -8.5; given the clear market lean and the sizable spread, Arkansas State is the likeliest to cover, though cover risk exists with rivalry variance and pace.

Grok 4
60%

The spread has moved from 8 to 8.5 with juice favoring Arkansas St at -8.5 (1.98), suggesting betting action on the away team to cover the spread.

Moneyline

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +4.1 / Arkansas St Red Wolves +1.25

100%

consensus

Arkansas St Red Wolves wins

13 models · avg conf 78%

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins (0%) Arkansas St Red Wolves wins (100%)
0 models · avg 0% avg 78% · 13 models

Arkansas St Red Wolves wins

The moneyline odds of 1.24 for Arkansas St Red Wolves clearly establish them as heavy favorites, implying a high probability of victory against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns.

GPT-4o
85%

The odds heavily favor Arkansas St Red Wolves with a moneyline of 1.24, indicating a strong market expectation for them to win. Additionally, home court advantage and recent performance metrics suggest they are more likely to secure a victory.

The moneyline odds for Arkansas St Red Wolves are very low at 1.24, which implies a high probability of victory (approximately 80.6%). This strong market consensus, combined with a large point spread in their favor, makes them the clear favorite to win the game outright.

Grok 3
80%

The moneyline odds heavily favor Arkansas St Red Wolves at 1.24 compared to Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at 4.2, indicating strong market belief in their victory. This suggests Arkansas St likely has superior form or key player advantages.

Arkansas St is listed as the favorite with a strong moneyline (around 1.24), indicating a clear probability of win implied by the odds.

Arkansas St Red Wolves have a strong win rate this season and are favored on the moneyline. Their recent performance suggests they can handle the Ragin' Cajuns.

Grok 4
75%

Arkansas St is heavily favored on the moneyline at 1.24, indicating strong market expectation of an away win against the underdog Louisiana at 4.2.

Arkansas State is heavily favored with a moneyline of 1.24 compared to Louisiana's 4.2, indicating approximately 80% implied probability of winning. The consistent 8-8.5 point spread across multiple books confirms strong market consensus that Arkansas State should win outright.

Arkansas State is heavily favored with moneyline odds of 1.24, indicating approximately 80% implied probability. The 8-point spread suggests the Red Wolves are the significantly stronger team in this matchup. As the road favorite by a substantial margin, the market clearly views Arkansas State as the superior squad.

Consistent market pricing favors Arkansas State across multiple books (≈-8 to -8.5 lines and a heavy ML of 1.24), indicating they are viewed as the stronger team; home-court advantage for Louisiana appears insufficient to flip outcome.

GPT-5
73%

Market makes Arkansas St a strong favorite (ML 1.24, spread -8/-8.5), implying ~80% win probability.

The moneyline odds heavily favor Arkansas St (1.24 vs 4.2 for Louisiana), indicating strong market confidence in the away team. This suggests Arkansas St is likely the stronger team or Louisiana is dealing with unfavorable circumstances (possibly the unusual 1:00 AM tip time as the away team). The 8-point spread combined with these moneyline odds points to a likely Arkansas St victory.

GLM-5
72%

Arkansas St is an 8-point road favorite, indicating a significant talent gap. Road favorites of this magnitude in conference play typically win outright at a high rate. The 1.24 moneyline reflects their strong position.

Over/Under

O/U 144.5

77%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 57%

Over (23%) Under (77%)
3 models · avg 60% avg 57% · 10 models

Over

Both teams have shown the ability to score high in recent games, and the over/under line indicates a competitive matchup, making the over a solid prediction.

The Over/Under line around 146 to 146.5 shows a slight lean toward Over (e.g., 146.5 Over at 1.87). In many mid-major matchups with similar pace, combined scores trend toward the higher end.

GPT-5
55%

Juice leans to the over at 146.5 (1.87 over vs 1.95 under), indicating a modest market preference for points.

Under

GPT-4o
60%

The total points line is set at 146 to 146.5, with odds slightly favoring the under. Considering both teams' defensive capabilities and recent lower scoring trends, the game is more likely to stay under the total.

Grok 3
60%

The totals line is set at 146 to 146.5 with balanced odds (1.87 to 1.95). Given the slight variation and market neutrality, a defensive matchup or slower pace could keep the score under 146, though confidence is moderate due to lack of specific team data.

The odds for Under 146.5 (1.95) are slightly more favorable than for Over 146.5 (1.87). This subtle market lean suggests a slightly higher probability for a lower-scoring game.

The total of 146 is moderate for college basketball. Sun Belt games often feature deliberate pace and solid defensive efforts, particularly in conference play. The consistency of the line across books at 146-146.5 suggests the market is confident in this number. Road games in conference play tend to be slightly lower scoring affairs, giving a slight edge to the under.

The totals are set around 146-146.5, with slightly better odds on the Under across most books (1.93-1.95 vs 1.87-1.91). This modest preference for Under, combined with the expectation of a dominant Arkansas St performance that might lead to controlled pacing late in the game, suggests a slight lean toward the Under. However, confidence is moderate as NCAA basketball totals are often balanced.

The total line is set at 146-146.5, which is relatively low for college basketball, suggesting a defensive-oriented game. The slight movement toward Under 146.5 at 1.95 odds indicates market lean toward the under. Conference matchups in late season typically feature better defensive execution and familiarity between teams, leading to lower scoring.

Total ~146–146.5 implies ~73 points per team; absent evidence of extremely high offensive tempo, market appears slightly rich for scoring—leaning under given typical Sun Belt pace/defense and the modest confidence due to uncertainty.

The total line has moved slightly to 146.5, but the odds on the under (1.95) are more favorable than the over (1.87). This pricing suggests that there is market resistance to the higher total, possibly indicating that sharper bettors are favoring the under. A game with a large spread can also trend towards the under if the favored team controls the pace and limits the underdog's scoring opportunities.

Grok 4
55%

Totals line shifted to 146.5 with under at better odds (1.95 vs 1.87 over), implying market lean towards a lower-scoring game.

GLM-5
55%

The total of 146-146.5 is moderate for college basketball. Conference games between mid-major programs tend to be more methodical. Home underdogs often slow the tempo to stay competitive, which should keep scoring in check. The slight line movement suggests some over action, but value remains on the under.

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