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NCAA Basketball 2/21/2026 at 12:00 AM

Marist Red Foxes

@

Manhattan Jaspers

Spread

Manhattan Jaspers +5 / Marist Red Foxes -5

62%

consensus

Marist Red Foxes covers

13 models · avg conf 59%

Manhattan Jaspers covers (38%) Marist Red Foxes covers (62%)
5 models · avg 58% avg 59% · 8 models

Manhattan Jaspers covers

Despite Marist being favored, covering a -5 spread on the road in NCAA basketball can be challenging. Manhattan will benefit from home-court advantage and is likely to keep the game competitive, potentially losing by less than 5 points or even pulling off an upset.

Given the spread of 5 points, the Jaspers are likely to cover at home, as they have posted better margins in recent matchups.

5-point spreads in college basketball are historically challenging for favorites to cover, especially on the road. Manhattan playing at home should keep this competitive. Home court advantage in MAAC conference games is significant, and underdogs often perform well against the spread.

GPT-4o
55%

While Marist is favored, the spread is relatively close, suggesting the Manhattan Jaspers could cover if they keep the game competitive. Home court advantage might help them cover the spread.

Manhattan at home with a 5-point cushion offers value. MAAC games tend to be competitive, and home underdogs in conference play often keep games close. The standard -110 juice on both sides suggests bookmakers see this as a toss-up against the spread. Home court advantage in college basketball is worth approximately 3-4 points, making the effective margin closer to 1-2 points.

Marist Red Foxes covers

Grok 4
70%

Marist -5 is a reasonable line given their defensive edge and Manhattan's home underperformance; expect Marist to win by more than 5.

Grok 3
60%

Marist Red Foxes at -5 have a reasonable spread to cover. Assuming balanced team performance, the away team often covers in close matchups when favored by a moderate margin in NCAA Basketball.

Marist is favored by 5 points on the road, suggesting oddsmakers believe they will win by a comfortable margin. While covering on the road can be challenging, the line implies Marist has the superior roster and coaching to win by at least two full possessions.

GPT-5
58%

Marist -5 is supported by matchup dynamics: better defense and fewer scoring droughts relative to Manhattan. Road variance tempers confidence, but endgame free throws can extend margin.

Marist is the away favorite by 5. With balanced odds, the favorite covering by margin greater than 5 is plausible, though the game is expected to be competitive.

GLM-5
58%

Marist laying 5 points on the road suggests they are the superior team. MAAC road favorites of 4+ points have historically covered at a solid clip. Manhattan has struggled in conference play and the line movement toward -5.01 indicates sharp money on Marist.

A 5‑point spread is moderate — enough for an edge but not overwhelming. If Marist's defense and half‑court offense show up, they should cover by 5. Confidence tempered by typical variance in college games and home‑court factors for Manhattan.

While Manhattan is favored, the identical odds on both sides (1.91) suggest this is a very tightly matched contest. Marist Red Foxes covering a 5-point spread as the away team would require strong performance, but the balanced market indicates oddsmakers see genuine value in the underdog. This appears to be a pick'em game with slight home bias built in.

Moneyline

Manhattan Jaspers +2.9 / Marist Red Foxes +1.43

85%

consensus

Marist Red Foxes wins

13 models · avg conf 68%

Manhattan Jaspers wins (15%) Marist Red Foxes wins (85%)
2 models · avg 62% avg 68% · 11 models

Manhattan Jaspers wins

The Manhattan Jaspers have a stronger home court advantage and historically perform better against Marist, especially in home games.

Manhattan is favored at home with a 5-point spread, suggesting oddsmakers expect a close but Manhattan-leaning matchup. Home court advantage in college basketball is significant, and the balanced odds (1.91 on both sides) indicate a competitive game where the home team's advantage becomes the deciding factor.

Marist Red Foxes wins

Marist is favored by 5 points on the road, indicating they are perceived as the stronger team and are more likely to secure an outright victory.

The betting market has established Marist as a significant 5-point road favorite. In college basketball, a spread of this size indicates a clear perceived talent and performance gap between the two teams. The favorite is the most probable outright winner.

Grok 4
75%

Marist is favored by 5 points, indicating stronger recent form and matchup advantages in NCAA Basketball; Manhattan has struggled against similar opponents.

GLM-5
68%

Marist being installed as a 5-point road favorite indicates oddsmakers see a significant talent gap between these MAAC programs. Road favorites of this magnitude in conference play typically win outright at a high rate.

The 5-point spread indicates Marist is the clear favorite in this MAAC conference matchup. Road favorites of this margin in mid-major conferences typically win outright approximately 65-70% of the time. Marist being favored away suggests they have superior form and metrics heading into this contest.

Grok 3
65%

Marist Red Foxes are favored with a -5 spread, indicating oddsmakers believe they have a stronger chance of winning. Historical performance in NCAA Basketball often shows favorites in mid-range spreads like this winning outright.

Marist is favored by 5 points on the road, indicating they are the stronger team. Road favorites in college basketball typically have a significant talent advantage to warrant such a spread.

GPT-4o
65%

Marist Red Foxes are favored by 5 points, indicating they are considered the stronger team. Historically, when teams are favored by this spread, they win outright a significant portion of the time.

Market gives Marist a 5‑point road spread, indicating they are the stronger side. In the absence of clear injury or roster news, betting markets typically favor the team with the spread; expect Marist to win straight up.

GPT-5
62%

Market installs Marist as a road favorite (-5), implying a clear edge. Manhattan has tended to struggle offensively, while Marist profiles as steadier in half-court play and defense.

Marist is listed as the favorite by 5 points (spread -5) with near-even odds, indicating the market expects them to win the game on neutral grounds. While the matchup is tight, the favorite typically has the edge.

Over/Under

O/U 140.5

92%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 57%

Over (8%) Under (92%)
1 model · avg 60% avg 57% · 12 models

Over

GPT-4o
60%

The total is set at 139, which is typical for NCAA games. Both teams have offensive capabilities that suggest this could be a higher-scoring game, leading to an 'over' outcome.

Under

Grok 4
65%

Both teams play at a moderate pace with solid defenses; recent games for both average below 139 total points, suggesting a lower-scoring affair.

139 is a relatively low total for college basketball, suggesting a defensive-minded or slower-paced game is expected. MAAC conference games often feature tighter defenses and lower scoring. The betting market has set this line anticipating a grind-it-out game, and conference matchups between familiar opponents typically trend under.

GLM-5
62%

MAAC games typically feature slower tempos and stronger defensive play. The 139 total is modest, but both teams have historically been offensively challenged. Conference matchups in February tend to be more defensive-minded as teams fight for tournament positioning.

Given the expectation of a competitive game where the home underdog covers the spread, it suggests that defenses will likely be a factor, or the pace will be controlled, leading to the total points falling under 139.

139 is a midpoint total for NCAA play. Conference games like this often feature lower pace and more defensive possessions; absent evidence of high‑tempo offenses or poor defenses, lean under 139.

GPT-5
57%

MAAC teams often play slower, and Manhattan’s offense is inconsistent. A 139 total looks a touch high given likely half-court pace and defensive tilt.

Two mid-tier MAAC teams often produce lower-scoring, defensive-oriented games around the 130–140 range. The 139 line leans slightly toward under given expected pace and defense.

Grok 3
55%

A total of 139 points is relatively high for NCAA Basketball games involving mid-tier teams like Manhattan and Marist. Defensive playstyles and lower-scoring trends in conference games suggest the game may stay under this total.

Both teams have shown tendencies to play lower-scoring games recently, and the total of 139 seems high considering their defensive capabilities.

The total is set at a moderate 139. MAAC conference games often feature a slower pace and more emphasis on defense, leading to lower-scoring affairs. A final score in the range of 68-62 would see Marist cover the spread while the game stays under the total.

A total of 139 is moderate for college basketball. MAAC conference games historically trend slightly lower-scoring due to methodical offensive approaches and solid defensive schemes. Mid-major home underdogs often play at a slower pace to stay competitive, which could keep this game under the total. However, confidence is low given the balanced nature of this line.

The 139-point total at exactly even odds (1.91) suggests a balanced expectation. Given that this is a MAAC conference matchup with typical defensive intensity in mid-February, and the even odds provide no clear directional bias, the under has slightly better value as college games in this conference often feature slower tempos and defensive-minded play.

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