Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo
Spread
Houston Dynamo 0 / Chicago Fire 085%
consensus
Houston Dynamo covers
13 models · avg conf 58%
Houston Dynamo covers
A common spread line among the offerings is Houston -0.5 at 1.49, implying a expectation that Dynamo win by at least one goal. With home advantage factored in, Dynamo covering -0.5 is the more likely outcome.
The '0' spread lines consistently show Houston with slightly lower odds, implying they are favored to win outright. Additionally, the Houston +0.5 spread at 1.49 suggests a high probability of the Dynamo either winning or drawing. Given the moneyline lean and the spread data, Houston is predicted to cover the 0 spread by securing a victory.
With most spreads at 0 and odds slightly favoring Houston Dynamo (1.86-1.87 vs. 1.95-1.96 for Chicago Fire), the home team is more likely to cover or push. The one instance of a 0.5 spread also heavily favors Houston Dynamo at 1.49.
Given the spread of 0, Houston Dynamo is likely to at least draw or win, making them the more probable team to cover the spread.
Most spreads are at 0 (pick'em) with Houston at lower odds (1.86-1.87) compared to Chicago (1.95-1.96), suggesting Houston is slightly favored to win or draw.
Many books list this as a pick'em and lines have moved between pick'em and a very slim Chicago -0.5. That suggests a tight game where a home draw or one-goal result favors the home side covering.
At 0 (DNB), Houston is priced lower (≈1.86 vs 1.96), indicating a small edge for the home side to win/cover with draw protection.
The spread is set at 0 (pick'em) across most lines, with Houston at slightly better odds (1.86-1.87 vs 1.95-1.96 for Chicago). One book shows Houston +0.5 at 1.49, indicating they're expected to avoid defeat. Home advantage in MLS typically helps cover the spread in evenly matched games.
The most common spread is 0, which is a 'Draw No Bet' line. This aligns with the moneyline prediction. Given the high probability of a close game or a draw, taking the home team on a 0 spread offers a level of safety, as a draw would result in a push.
Most spreads show Houston Dynamo at 0 (-110/-120), indicating market neutrality on home-field advantage. However, Houston's home record and slight edge in moneyline odds (2.45-2.56 range vs 2.50-2.65) suggest marginal home advantage. The draw is the most likely outcome, but if a winner emerges, Houston's home field positioning slightly favors coverage.
The spread is set at 0 (pick'em) at most books with Houston at 1.86-1.87 and Chicago at 1.95-1.96, showing slight juice favoring Houston. One book even offers Houston +0.5 at 1.49, suggesting bookmakers see this as a true coin-flip leaning slightly toward the home side. The draw is a very real possibility in this match, making the pick'em spread essentially a moneyline bet with push protection.
Chicago Fire covers
Most books offer a 0-spread (push protection), but the Chicago Fire side consistently shows slightly better odds (1.95-1.96 vs 1.86-1.87). One book even gives Chicago Fire -0.5 at 2.43 odds, suggesting slight market lean toward Chicago. The away side provides better value in this pick'em scenario.
The spread odds suggest a slight advantage towards Chicago Fire with a spread of 0 at higher odds for Houston Dynamo. This indicates a slight lean towards Chicago Fire covering the spread, although confidence is moderate due to the balance in odds.
Moneyline
Houston Dynamo +2.4 / Chicago Fire +2.76100%
consensus
Houston Dynamo wins
10 models · avg conf 56%
Houston Dynamo wins
Houston Dynamo has home advantage and their odds are slightly more favorable compared to Chicago Fire, indicating a stronger likelihood of winning.
Houston shows home-field advantage and a slight market lean toward them in several lines (despite near parity in some bookmakers). The presence of a favorable +0.5 spread for Dynamo at strong money (1.49) supports them winning or at least not losing by more than a goal, making them the marginal favorite.
The moneyline odds are very tight, indicating a closely contested match. However, Houston Dynamo holds a slight edge in most moneyline offerings and typically benefits from strong home-field advantage in MLS. While a draw is a real possibility, the slight lean towards Houston suggests they are marginally more likely to secure the win.
The odds for Houston Dynamo are slightly more favorable on average (ranging from 2.45 to 2.6) compared to Chicago Fire (ranging from 2.5 to 2.65). This suggests a marginal edge for the home team, likely due to home-field advantage.
The moneyline odds are very close across multiple sources, often around 2.5-2.6 for both teams, indicating a near-even matchup with a slight edge to Houston in several lines (e.g., 2.45 vs. 2.5).
The market is essentially a coin flip (moneylines clustered ~2.5-2.6), but several books show Houston marginally shorter or even. Home-side edge and the clustering around pick'em give Houston a small edge.
The odds across all bookmakers are extremely tight (ranging from 2.45-2.60 for Houston and 2.50-2.65 for Chicago), indicating a virtual pick'em. However, Houston has a slight edge as the home team, with marginally shorter odds at most books (2.45-2.56 vs 2.50-2.65). Home field advantage in MLS typically provides a small but meaningful boost, giving Houston a narrow edge in this evenly-matched contest.
The odds are nearly even between both teams (2.45-2.60 range), indicating a tightly contested match. Houston Dynamo holds a slight home advantage in MLS, which typically gives a 5-10% edge. Some lines show Houston at 2.45 vs Chicago at 2.50, suggesting marginal home favor. However, the close odds warrant moderate confidence.
Market is a near pick’em, but several books shade Houston slightly shorter and the PK price favors the home side.
The moneyline odds are extremely tight across all books, indicating this match is viewed as a virtual toss-up. In such evenly matched contests, the home-field advantage often becomes the deciding factor. I'll give a slight edge to Houston playing in front of their home crowd.
Over/Under
O/U 2.577%
consensus
Over
13 models · avg conf 62%
Over
The totals lines strongly favor the 'Over'. The Over 2.5 goal line is priced very low (around 1.63-1.64 across multiple books), indicating a high probability of at least three goals being scored. The Over 2.75 line also consistently has lower odds than the Under, reinforcing the expectation of a higher-scoring affair.
The market shows a clear lean towards a higher-scoring game. The odds for Over 2.5 are consistently low (around 1.63-1.64), and the Over 2.75 line is also favored. This strong market consensus suggests that oddsmakers anticipate both teams finding the net, pushing the total past 2.5 goals.
Several totals lines favor Over 2.5 (around 1.63-1.64) and Over 2.75 is not far behind (1.85-1.99). This pattern suggests a higher likelihood of at least 3 goals combined, aligning with an Over expectation.
The totals line is predominantly set at 2.75 with odds for Over at 1.84-1.85, indicating a slight bookmaker expectation for a higher-scoring game. Even at 2.5, Over odds are favorable (1.63-1.64), supporting a prediction of Over.
Totals lines show over favored, with odds like Over 2.5 at 1.63-1.64 and Over 2.75 at 1.84-1.85, implying expectations of a higher-scoring game.
Totals are centered at 2.5–2.75 with multiple books pricing the Over at noticeably shorter odds than the Under, implying the market expects more than ~2.5 goals.
Over is juiced at both 2.75 (≈1.84–1.85) and 2.5 (≈1.63–1.64), signaling an expected goals environment closer to 3.
The total is set at 2.5-2.75 depending on the book, with Over 2.5 priced at 1.63-1.64 and Under at 2.14-2.20, indicating bookmakers expect goals. The Over 2.75 lines at 1.84-1.85 still offer plus-money territory. Both Houston and Chicago have traditionally been involved in open, attacking matches. Early season MLS games often produce goals as defenses are still getting organized. The pricing heavily favors the over, suggesting 2-3+ goals are expected.
Both teams have shown tendencies to score, and with the odds for Over 2.75 being relatively favorable, there is a reasonable expectation for a high-scoring game.
Over 2.75 is priced at 1.84-1.85, suggesting bookmakers lean toward goals being scored. Over 2.5 at 1.63-1.64 odds strongly indicates expectation of at least 3 goals. MLS matches average around 2.7 goals, and both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities. The pricing on unders (2.14-2.20) offers value but the market clearly favors the over.
Under
The totals odds for under 2.5 are higher, indicating bookmakers might favor a lower-scoring game. The pattern of odds suggests a slight expectation for fewer goals, especially given the close matchup and defensive capabilities of both teams.
The under is consistently priced at better odds across all books (1.98-2.20 range vs 1.63-1.85 for over), indicating the market expects lower scoring. The total of 2.75 goals is positioned defensively, and with evenly matched teams often playing cautiously, under 2.75 goals offers the best value with sharper pricing suggesting defensive tactics.
Over/Under lines consistently show 2.5-2.75 goals with Under odds of 1.98-2.20 versus Over odds of 1.63-1.85. The higher odds on Under reflect market expectation of lower-scoring play. MLS matches frequently produce 1-1 or 1-0 results. The even moneyline and draw likelihood further support a cautious, defensive approach resulting in fewer than 2.75 goals.