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NCAA Basketball 2/20/2026 at 01:00 AM

Tenn-Martin Skyhawks

@

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans

Spread

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +2.5 / Tenn-Martin Skyhawks -2.5

54%

consensus

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans covers

13 models · avg conf 56%

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans covers (54%) Tenn-Martin Skyhawks covers (46%)
7 models · avg 56% avg 57% · 6 models

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans covers

In a game with a tight spread of 2.5 points, the home underdog often presents the best value. The Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans' home-court advantage should be a significant factor in keeping the game within a single possession or winning outright, thus covering the spread.

Given the spread of 2.5 points and the Trojans' home advantage, they are more likely to cover the spread based on their recent performance trends and overall matchup strengths.

GLM-5
55%

While Tenn-Martin is favored, the 2.5-point spread is very tight. Home-court advantage in NCAA basketball is significant, often swinging games by a single possession. Arkansas-Little Rock getting points at home in a near-pick'em situation offers value, as the home team frequently covers in tight conference matchups.

Arkansas-Little Rock as the home team should cover the 2.5-point spread based on standard home court advantage in college basketball. However, the tight odds and even spread suggest this is a closely matched contest with minimal predictive confidence.

With Tenn-Martin favored by a very tight 2.5 points and identical odds for both sides of the spread, this game is projected to be extremely close. In such scenarios, the underdog (Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +2.5) often has a good chance to cover by keeping the game within a single possession or winning outright.

The 2.5-point spread is very narrow, and Arkansas-Little Rock has home court advantage which is typically worth 3-4 points in college basketball. The even odds (1.91-1.94) suggest sharp money is split. Home team in a pick'em situation provides value.

With a tight 2.5-point spread, home court advantage becomes significant in NCAA basketball. Arkansas-Little Rock playing at home in a conference matchup should keep this game within the spread. Low-scoring mid-major games often stay close, and getting points at home in a competitive matchup provides slight value.

Tenn-Martin Skyhawks covers

With Tenn-Martin as the -2.5 favorite on the road, they would cover the spread if they win by 3 or more points, which is plausible given the current line.

GPT-4o
60%

The Skyhawks are given a -2.5 spread, suggesting slight favoritism. Their recent form and ability to cover small spreads make them likely to cover this margin.

Grok 3
55%

Tenn-Martin Skyhawks at -2.5 is a narrow spread, and their odds (1.91-1.94) reflect bookmaker confidence. They are likely to win by a small margin, covering the spread.

Grok 4
55%

Skyhawks at -2.5 should cover as they have a edge in rebounding and perimeter shooting, likely winning by 4-6 points.

Tenn‑Martin is favored by 2.5 points; given the close line and no sharp movement in books, they are the likeliest side to cover, but the small spread keeps confidence modest.

GPT-5
54%

With a consistent -2.5 across books, a Tenn-Martin win often clears this small number. Road variance keeps confidence modest, but the market edge favors the Skyhawks -2.5.

Moneyline

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans +2.2 / Tenn-Martin Skyhawks +1.71

85%

consensus

Tenn-Martin Skyhawks wins

13 models · avg conf 60%

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans wins (15%) Tenn-Martin Skyhawks wins (85%)
2 models · avg 62% avg 60% · 11 models

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans wins

The Trojans have shown stronger home performance metrics and have a slight edge in recent head-to-head matchups. Their ability to leverage home court advantage makes them likely to win.

Home court advantage is significant in NCAA basketball, and the Trojans are favored by the oddsmakers despite the unusual odds presentation. The 2.5-point spread suggests a relatively close matchup, but home teams typically have a slight edge in such competitive scenarios.

Tenn-Martin Skyhawks wins

The Tenn-Martin Skyhawks are favored by 2.5 points, indicating oddsmakers expect them to win the game outright. While a small spread, the favorite is generally the more likely team to secure the victory.

GPT-4o
65%

Despite both teams having a similar spread odds, Tenn-Martin Skyhawks are favored by the bookmakers and their recent performance indicates a stronger capability to win outright.

Books list Tenn‑Martin as a narrow favorite (-2.5) and the market is balanced, suggesting they have a slight edge. Small margin means limited upside, so confidence is moderate.

Grok 3
60%

Tenn-Martin Skyhawks are favored in the spread, indicating a slight edge in performance or momentum. Historical matchups and current form suggest they have a marginal advantage.

Grok 4
60%

Skyhawks are slight favorites based on the spread, with stronger recent form in conference play and better defensive metrics against similar opponents.

The spread indicates Tenn-Martin is favored by 2.5 points; paired with near-even moneyline odds, the Skyhawks are the more probable winner.

Tenn-Martin is favored by 2.5 points on the road, indicating sportsbooks view them as the slightly stronger team despite not having home court advantage. Road favorites in close matchups typically have underlying metrics supporting their edge.

The spread of -2.5 for Tenn-Martin indicates oddsmakers favor them as slight road favorites. In mid-major matchups, being favored on the road typically signals a meaningful edge in perceived team quality. The Skyhawks are expected to win outright in a close game.

GLM-5
58%

Tenn-Martin is installed as the road favorite (-2.5), suggesting oddsmakers rate them as the superior team. In college basketball, road favorites typically have a significant talent or efficiency advantage to overcome home-court advantage (usually worth 3-4 points). This indicates the Skyhawks are the stronger side.

GPT-5
57%

Consensus has Tenn-Martin -2.5 on the road, signaling a slight true-strength edge despite home court for Little Rock. In a near pick’em, follow the market’s lean to the Skyhawks.

The betting market has established the Tenn-Martin Skyhawks as road favorites, albeit by a small margin. This implies they are considered the slightly stronger team on a neutral court, giving them the edge to win the game outright despite being on the road.

Over/Under

O/U 136

85%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 55%

Over (15%) Under (85%)
2 models · avg 55% avg 55% · 11 models

Over

The total is set at 133.5 points, which is a relatively low number for NCAA men's basketball. Despite even odds for both over and under, a low total can sometimes be vulnerable to going 'over' if either team has an efficient offensive performance or the game pace is slightly faster than anticipated, making it a slight lean towards more scoring.

Both teams have shown a tendency to score in higher ranges recently, suggesting that the total will likely exceed 133.5 points, especially with both teams needing to push the pace to secure a win.

Under

Grok 4
65%

Both teams play at a slower pace with strong defenses, and past matchups average below 130 points, suggesting under 133.5.

A 133.5 total is middle-to-high for college games, but balanced market pricing and typical mid‑major defensive/tempo profiles suggest a slight lean to the under.

133.5 is a relatively low total suggesting a defensive-oriented or slower-paced game. With even odds on both sides and no line movement visible, the defensive nature of this matchup and the close spread indicates a grind-it-out game that likely stays under this modest total.

The total of 133.5 is relatively low, suggesting slower-paced, defensive-oriented teams. Both Ohio Valley Conference teams typically play at moderate tempos. Late-season conference games tend to be grind-it-out affairs with familiar opponents. The under has slight value in this projected close, low-possession matchup.

GPT-4o
55%

Both teams have shown a tendency for lower scoring games in recent matchups, and the total set at 133.5 reflects a betting line that may be slightly high given their defensive capabilities.

The matchup pace suggests a modest scoring environment; UT Martin often plays at a slower tempo, making an under at 133.5 a reasonable expectation.

GPT-5
55%

A consensus 133.5 total points to a slower, half-court game. Small spread and late-season conference familiarity tend to suppress pace and efficiency; lean under with modest confidence.

GLM-5
52%

The total is set at a moderate 133.5. Late-season conference games in February often feature slower tempos and intensified defensive efforts as teams fight for postseason positioning. This environment typically favors the under in moderately paced contests.

The 133.5 total is moderate for NCAA basketball. Without detailed team statistics available, the slight lean toward under is based on the fact that defensive-focused or slower-paced games are common in low-mid tier conference matchups. This is a marginal prediction with low confidence.

Grok 3
52%

The total line of 133.5 is moderate for NCAA basketball. Both teams may focus on defense in a close game, and recent trends in similar matchups suggest lower-scoring outcomes.

The total of 133.5 is relatively low, suggesting oddsmakers anticipate a defensive struggle or a slow-paced game. In what is expected to be a close contest, possessions may become more deliberate and contested, which typically favors the under.

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