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English Premier League 3/1/2026 at 02:00 PM

Nottingham Forest

@

Brighton and Hove Albion

Spread

Brighton and Hove Albion -0.25 / Nottingham Forest +0.25

69%

consensus

Brighton and Hove Albion covers

13 models · avg conf 63%

Brighton and Hove Albion covers (69%) Nottingham Forest covers (31%)
9 models · avg 63% avg 60% · 4 models

Brighton and Hove Albion covers

GPT-4o
70%

The spread of -0.5 for Brighton suggests bookmakers expect them to win by at least one goal. The odds for this are close to even, indicating a reasonable expectation for Brighton to cover the spread.

Brighton is priced to win by at least 1 goal (spread -0.5). Home form and quality edge support covering a -0.5 spread.

With Brighton and Hove Albion favored on the moneyline, their -0.5 spread (which essentially means they need to win the match) at odds of 1.99 is a direct reflection of their expected victory. If they win, they cover the spread.

Grok 3
65%

Brighton and Hove Albion are favored with a -0.5 spread at odds of 1.99, suggesting a reasonable likelihood of winning by at least one goal. Their status as the home team further supports the expectation that they can cover the spread against Nottingham Forest.

Brighton at -0.5 spread with 1.99 odds indicates market expects a narrow home win. The negative spread favors Brighton covering by at least one goal. This aligns with their moneyline favoritism, though the tight spread (0.5 goals) reflects a closely matched contest.

Given Brighton's home form and the slight edge in the odds, they are favored to win by at least a goal, covering the spread.

Grok 4
60%

Brighton -0.5 at 1.99 suggests they are expected to win outright, covering the spread with their attacking prowess at home.

GLM-5
56%

The spread is set at Brighton -0.5, which essentially mirrors the Moneyline (Brighton to win outright). Given Brighton's strong home form and ability to control possession, they are favored to secure the three points. While the -0.5 handicap offers no safety net for a draw, Brighton's tactical setup is designed to break down defensive blocks, making the home cover the logical choice.

Brighton -0.5 is available around 1.99 (implied ≈50%). Given the ML edge and home advantage, Brighton are the likeliest side to win outright and therefore cover a -0.5 line, but margin is slim so confidence is modest.

Nottingham Forest covers

The odds for Nottingham Forest +0.5 are significantly lower (1.73) than for Brighton -0.5 (1.99). This indicates the market sees strong potential for Nottingham Forest to secure at least a draw. The value lies with the away team covering the spread.

GPT-5
58%

Forest +0.5 is juiced (~1.73), implying higher draw/cover probability against a volatile Brighton side.

Nottingham Forest at +0.5 (1.73) offers better value than Brighton at -0.5 (1.99). Forest only needs to avoid defeat to cover, and the odds suggest bookmakers expect a tight contest. The discrepancy between spread odds indicates value on the Forest side, as they can cover with a draw or win.

Nottingham Forest +0.5 at odds of 1.73 offers value in what projects to be a tight match. Forest's defensive organization under their setup typically keeps games close, and the +0.5 spread means a draw also covers. The implied probability of ~58% for Forest +0.5 suggests bookmakers expect this to be competitive. Brighton often struggle to win by multiple goals at home against well-organized opposition.

Moneyline

Brighton and Hove Albion +2.1 / Nottingham Forest +3.34

100%

consensus

Brighton and Hove Albion wins

13 models · avg conf 64%

Brighton and Hove Albion wins (100%) Nottingham Forest wins (0%)
13 models · avg 64% avg 0% · 0 models

Brighton and Hove Albion wins

GPT-4o
75%

Brighton and Hove Albion is favored with lower odds across multiple betting lines, indicating they are more likely to win at home. Nottingham Forest has higher odds, reflecting their underdog status in this matchup.

The home advantage and the current betting odds show Brighton as the favorite (lower moneyline). Nottingham Forest have been less consistent, making Brighton likelier to win.

Grok 3
70%

Brighton and Hove Albion have more favorable odds across multiple moneyline listings (ranging from 2.00 to 2.04) compared to Nottingham Forest (ranging from 3.32 to 3.7), indicating stronger market confidence in their victory. As the home team, they also likely benefit from home advantage in the English Premier League.

Brighton's moneyline odds average around 2.03, implying approximately 49% implied probability. As the home team with lower odds, they are favored. However, Nottingham Forest's odds (3.32-3.7) suggest meaningful uncertainty. Brighton's home advantage and lower odds support a slight edge, but confidence is moderate due to competitive nature of Premier League matches.

Brighton and Hove Albion are consistently favored across all provided moneyline odds (averaging around 2.02), indicating a higher implied probability of winning the match outright compared to Nottingham Forest.

Brighton has home advantage and better overall form compared to Nottingham Forest, which makes them more likely to win.

Grok 4
65%

Brighton is the clear favorite across multiple moneyline odds (around 2.0-2.04), indicating stronger form and home advantage against Nottingham Forest.

Bookmakers consistently list Brighton as the clear favorite (average ML ~2.02 → implied ~49–50%). Home advantage plus Brighton's generally stronger squad and attacking profile vs Nottingham Forest's more inconsistent form makes a Brighton win the more likely outcome, though the market implies a competitive match.

Brighton are clear favorites at home with odds around 2.00-2.04 (implied probability ~49-50%), while Forest are priced at 3.32-3.70 (implied probability ~27-30%). The home advantage and significantly shorter odds suggest Brighton have a solid edge in this matchup.

Brighton are the consistent home favorites across all provided moneyline odds, with an average price around 2.02. This implies they are the most likely single outcome to win the match, although the odds suggest it will not be an easy victory.

GLM-5
58%

Brighton is the clear favorite with odds averaging around 2.02, implying a roughly 49-50% win probability. Playing at the Amex Stadium provides a significant advantage. While Nottingham Forest is a dangerous counter-attacking side, Brighton's possession-dominant style usually controls matches at home against non-top-six opposition. The consistency in the odds across different books suggests the market is confident in Brighton's superiority here.

Brighton are clear favorites at home with moneyline odds around 2.00-2.04 (implied probability ~49-50%). Playing at the Amex Stadium gives Brighton a significant advantage, and the consistent pricing across all bookmakers indicates market confidence in Brighton as the most likely winner. The draw is also a strong possibility given the competitive nature of Premier League fixtures, but Brighton's home form typically makes them the favored outcome.

GPT-5
54%

Market shade is toward Brighton at ~2.0 at home and they project the stronger attack, but draw risk keeps confidence moderate.

Over/Under

O/U 2.5

69%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 62%

Over (69%) Under (31%)
9 models · avg 62% avg 57% · 4 models

Over

The odds for Over 2.5 goals are consistently lower (averaging around 1.80) than the Under 2.5 goals (averaging around 1.95). This shows a clear market expectation for a higher-scoring game with three or more goals.

Markets tilt toward the over 2.5 line (around 1.79–1.8). Both teams have the firepower to reach at least three goals, though a tight 1-1 or 2-1 is possible.

GPT-4o
65%

The Over 2.5 goal line is slightly favored with odds around 1.8, suggesting a slight expectation of a higher-scoring game. Both teams have shown the capability to score, justifying the lean towards the over.

GLM-5
62%

The odds for Over 2.5 are priced aggressively low (averaging approx 1.80), indicating sharp money or market expectation for goals. Brighton typically plays a high-tempo style that invites chances at both ends, and Nottingham Forest's transition game can exploit space left by the home side. The market bias toward the Over suggests an open fixture is expected.

The odds for Over 2.5 goals (averaging around 1.795) are consistently lower than for Under 2.5 goals (averaging around 1.955), suggesting the market expects a higher-scoring game with more than two goals.

Totals market slightly favors Over 2.5 (consensus odds ~1.79–1.80 → implied ~55–56%). Brighton's attacking tendencies combined with Forest's occasional defensive vulnerabilities point toward a game with 3+ goals, though variance in EPL fixtures keeps this a moderate-confidence call.

GPT-5
57%

Over 2.5 is favored (1.79–1.80), consistent with Brighton’s open style and both teams’ likelihood to trade chances.

Grok 4
55%

Odds slightly favor over 2.5 goals (1.79-1.8), pointing to a pattern of higher-scoring games involving these teams' recent styles.

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, suggesting a match with multiple goals that could surpass the 2.5 total.

Under

Over 2.5 averages 1.79-1.8 odds (56% implied probability) while Under 2.5 averages 1.91-2.0 odds (50-52% implied probability). The slightly higher odds on the Under suggest oddsmakers expect a relatively tight, low-scoring match. Given this is a competitive Premier League fixture, a 2-1 or 1-1 scoreline appears more probable than higher-scoring outcomes.

Grok 3
55%

The odds for Under 2.5 goals are slightly more favorable in one listing (2.00 vs 1.79 for Over) and competitive in another (1.91 vs 1.8 for Over). This suggests a marginal lean towards a lower-scoring game, possibly due to defensive tendencies or historical matchups between these teams resulting in tighter contests.

The under 2.5 goals at odds around 1.91-2.00 presents slight value. Nottingham Forest are typically a defensively disciplined side that keeps games tight and low-scoring. Brighton's possession-based style can struggle to break down compact defenses. Historical meetings and Forest's general approach to away matches at top-half opponents suggest a cagey affair with 2 goals or fewer being the most likely outcome.

The totals market is relatively balanced but slightly favors the under, with odds ranging from 1.91-2.00 for under 2.5 goals versus 1.79-1.80 for over 2.5. This suggests a potentially tight, defensive match. When favorites are priced around 2.00, matches often remain cautious, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.

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