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English Premier League 2/21/2026 at 03:00 PM

Burnley

@

Chelsea

Spread

Chelsea -2 / Burnley +2

92%

consensus

Chelsea covers

13 models · avg conf 70%

Chelsea covers (92%) Burnley covers (8%)
12 models · avg 70% avg 55% · 1 model

Chelsea covers

With Chelsea favored by -1.5 to -1.75, their strong home record and the disparity in team quality suggest they are likely to cover the spread.

The spread lines (-1.5 to -1.75 for Chelsea) suggest that bookmakers expect Chelsea to win by at least two goals. Given Chelsea's strong home advantage and Burnley's typical struggles against top teams, Chelsea covering a -1.75 spread (winning by 2 or more goals) is a highly probable outcome. The odds for Chelsea -1.75 are generally around 1.82-1.83, offering reasonable value for a strong favorite.

Spread lines consistently show Chelsea -1.5 to -1.75; expected Chelsea to win by at least 2 goals given lineup quality and home advantage.

Grok 4
75%

Spreads range from -1.5 to -1.75 for Chelsea with favorable odds (1.65 to 1.83), suggesting Chelsea is likely to win by 2+ goals based on their dominance and Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities.

GPT-4o
75%

The spread odds favor Chelsea covering a -1.5 or -1.75 spread, with odds around 1.65 to 1.83. This suggests a strong market expectation for Chelsea to win by at least two goals, likely due to their superior squad depth and offensive capabilities.

Chelsea is favored by -1.5 to -1.75 goals across books, with odds of 1.65-1.83. The -1.75 spread appears most frequently with good odds (1.83), suggesting market confidence in Chelsea winning by 2+ goals. Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities and Chelsea's attacking prowess support covering a -1.75 spread at home.

Grok 3
70%

Chelsea is favored with spreads of -1.5 to -1.75, with odds around 1.65 to 1.83. While covering a -1.75 spread requires a win by at least 2 goals, Chelsea's attacking strength at home and Burnley's defensive struggles make it likely they cover the spread. However, confidence is moderate due to the possibility of a narrow victory.

The spread is set at Chelsea -1.5 and -1.75. Given the vast difference in team quality suggested by the moneyline, Chelsea is expected to win comfortably. While Burnley will likely play a defensive game, Chelsea's attacking prowess at home should be sufficient to secure a victory by at least two goals.

The spread is set at -1.5 to -1.75 goals for Chelsea, indicating bookmakers expect a comfortable home win. Chelsea's attacking quality at home typically produces multi-goal victories against relegation-threatened or newly promoted sides like Burnley. The -1.5 spread at 1.65 offers better value than the -1.75 line. Chelsea covering by 2+ goals is the likely outcome given the quality differential.

GLM-5
62%

The spread line of -1.5 to -1.75 indicates market expectation of a multi-goal Chelsea victory. While Chelsea should dominate possession and create chances, covering -1.75 requires a 2+ goal margin which carries some risk. The consistent -1.75 line at 1.82-1.83 odds suggests sharp money expects Chelsea to cover.

GPT-5
61%

Chelsea -1.5 at ~1.65 and -1.75 at ~1.83 suggest an expected margin around 1.6–1.7 goals; market leans to a 2+ goal win.

Lines of Chelsea -1.5 to -1.75 indicate the market expects a multi-goal win. Covering -1.5/-1.75 is plausible given quality gap, but margin risk (variance, single-goal outcomes) lowers confidence.

Burnley covers

While Chelsea should win, covering -1.75 goals requires a 2+ goal margin. The spread odds show Burnley +1.75 at around 2.02-2.04, which offers value. Chelsea may win narrowly (2-0, 2-1), making the spread close. Given the over/under line around 3.25-3.5 goals total, a lower-scoring match is implied, which could limit Chelsea's winning margin.

Moneyline

Chelsea +1.22 / Burnley +10.75

100%

consensus

Chelsea wins

13 models · avg conf 87%

Chelsea wins (100%) Burnley wins (0%)
13 models · avg 87% avg 0% · 0 models

Chelsea wins

Chelsea is an overwhelming favorite, with moneyline odds consistently ranging from 1.21 to 1.25 across all bookmakers, indicating an implied win probability well over 80%. Burnley's odds are extremely high (10.0-12.0), reflecting their significant underdog status against a top-tier Premier League opponent at home.

Chelsea is the overwhelming favorite across all provided betting lines, with average odds around 1.23. This implies a win probability of over 80%. Playing at home against a significant underdog like Burnley further solidifies their position as the likely winner.

Chelsea is heavily favored with odds around 1.22-1.25, implying an 80%+ win probability. Burnley's odds of 9.5-12.0 suggest they're significant underdogs. This is likely a home game for Chelsea against a relegation-battling side, making Chelsea the clear favorite.

Grok 4
90%

Chelsea is heavily favored across all moneyline odds (1.21 to 1.25), indicating a strong probability of victory against Burnley, a weaker team in the EPL matchup.

GPT-4o
90%

The odds strongly favor Chelsea, with the moneyline consistently below 1.25, indicating a high probability of winning. Additionally, Chelsea is a stronger team historically and typically performs well at home.

GLM-5
88%

Chelsea are overwhelming favorites with odds as short as 1.21-1.25, implying an 80-82% win probability. The massive gap to Burnley's odds (9.5-12.0) reflects a significant class difference. Chelsea at home against a relegation-level side like Burnley historically results in comfortable victories.

Grok 3
85%

Chelsea's moneyline odds are consistently around 1.21 to 1.25 across multiple lines, indicating strong market confidence in their victory. Burnley's odds range from 9.5 to 12, suggesting they are heavy underdogs. Historical performance in the Premier League often favors top-tier teams like Chelsea at home against lower-table teams like Burnley.

Chelsea are overwhelming favorites with moneyline odds ranging from 1.21-1.25 across all bookmakers, implying approximately 80% win probability. Playing at home at Stamford Bridge against a traditionally weaker Burnley side, Chelsea should secure the victory. The massive disparity in odds (Burnley at 9.5-12) reflects the significant quality gap between these teams.

Consensus moneyline (~1.21–1.25) implies a heavy-home-favorite. Chelsea at home vs Burnley is the clear superior side; market pricing strongly favors Chelsea.

Chelsea has consistently lower odds, indicating strong favoritism among bookmakers. Historically, Chelsea performs well against teams like Burnley, especially at home.

GPT-5
84%

Consensus ML 1.21–1.25 implies ~80–83% win probability for Chelsea; multiple books align on a strong home favorite.

Chelsea's moneyline odds consistently hover between 1.21-1.25 across all sportsbooks, indicating strong market consensus. Burnley's odds at 9.5-12.0 reflect significant underdog status. Chelsea's home advantage and superior squad depth make them heavy favorites. The consistency across multiple books suggests this is an efficient market assessment.

Chelsea is clear favorite across multiple bookmakers with low odds; Burnley is a heavy underdog; home-field advantage supports Chelsea to win.

Over/Under

O/U 3.5

77%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 63%

Over (23%) Under (77%)
3 models · avg 63% avg 63% · 10 models

Over

The odds for the totals indicate a tendency towards higher scoring, and both teams have shown a propensity for games with more than 3.5 goals in recent matchups.

Grok 3
60%

The totals line fluctuates between 3.25 and 3.5, with over odds ranging from 1.91 to 2.17. Given Chelsea's potential to score multiple goals and Burnley's occasional ability to contribute a goal, the over 3.25 or 3.5 seems plausible. Confidence is moderate due to variability in defensive performances.

Chelsea's attacking firepower and Burnley's potential for goals suggests a total score above 3.25-3.5 is plausible, though a 2-0 Chelsea win would yield under. The line leans slightly toward over given typical EPL scoring.

Under

The betting market consistently favors 'Under 3.5 goals' (odds 1.65-1.67) over 'Over 3.5 goals' (odds 2.10-2.17). While Chelsea is expected to score multiple goals, Burnley is unlikely to contribute significantly to the total, making a high-scoring affair less probable. A 2-0, 2-1, or 3-0 victory for Chelsea would keep the total under 3.5 goals.

Books consistently price Under money as the cleaner side (Under 3.25/3.5 with shorter juice). High total threshold makes Under more likely (a 1–0 or 2–0/2–1 win by the favorite would land Under).

The totals line is set high at 3.25 and 3.5, but the odds consistently favor the under. The market price for Under 3.5 is around 1.65, indicating this is the more probable outcome. Burnley is expected to adopt a defensive strategy to frustrate Chelsea, which typically leads to lower-scoring matches. A 2-0 or 3-0 victory for Chelsea aligns with both the spread and the under prediction.

Grok 4
65%

Totals lines at 3.25-3.5 show under favored in most odds (1.65 to 1.91), pointing to a lower-scoring game possibly due to Burnley's defensive style against a strong Chelsea side.

GPT-4o
65%

The odds for under 3.5 goals are consistently favored, indicating a market expectation for a lower-scoring match. Despite Chelsea's offensive strength, Burnley may adopt a defensive approach, limiting total goals.

The totals line is set at 3.25-3.5 with Under odds favored at 1.65-1.91. The market expects a moderate-scoring game. Burnley, likely fighting relegation, will play defensively. Chelsea should control possession but may struggle to break down a packed defense. A 2-0 or 2-1 Chelsea win (under 3.5 goals) seems more probable than a high-scoring affair.

GPT-5
60%

Under 3.5 is juiced (~1.65) while 3.25 is near even; pricing centers around ~3.2 goals, favoring the under.

Totals lines vary between 3.25-3.5 goals. Under odds consistently range 1.65-1.91 versus Over odds of 2.1-2.17, indicating slight market lean toward lower-scoring outcomes. However, confidence is moderate as both outcomes show relatively balanced odds. Chelsea's recent form and Burnley's defensive struggles could produce goals, but the odds suggest modest caution on high-scoring results.

The totals line is set at 3.25-3.5 goals with the under slightly favored (1.65-1.91 vs 1.91-2.17). Burnley traditionally plays a defensive, low-block style that limits goal-scoring opportunities for both teams. While Chelsea should dominate possession, Burnley's compact defense could restrict this to a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline, keeping the total under 3.5 goals.

GLM-5
58%

The total line of 3.25-3.5 is relatively high. While Chelsea should score multiple goals, Burnley's limited attacking threat means they may not contribute to the scoreboard. Typical scorelines like 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 would stay under 3.5. The under being priced at 1.65-1.67 for 3.5 goals indicates the market leans toward fewer goals.

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