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English Premier League 2/21/2026 at 03:00 PM

Leeds United

@

Aston Villa

Spread

Aston Villa -0.5 / Leeds United +0.5

69%

consensus

Aston Villa covers

13 models · avg conf 64%

Aston Villa covers (69%) Leeds United covers (31%)
9 models · avg 64% avg 62% · 4 models

Aston Villa covers

Aston Villa is favored on the spread at -0.5 to -0.75 goals across sportsbooks. The spread reflects a close but favoring matchup; Villa's home advantage combined with better odds suggests they should cover the modest -0.75 spread. The -0.5 spread at better odds (1.74) also supports a Villa cover prediction.

GPT-4o
70%

The spread consistently favors Aston Villa at -0.75 with odds suggesting the market believes they will win by at least one goal. Given their home advantage and generally stronger form, they are likely to cover the spread.

With Aston Villa favored by -0.75 and their strong home form, they are likely to cover the spread against Leeds United.

Grok 3
65%

Aston Villa is favored on the spread at -0.75 with odds around 2.02-2.05, suggesting they are expected to win by at least one goal. Their home advantage and implied strength support them covering the spread.

Lines cluster around Villa -0.5 to -0.75, indicating expectation they win by a margin. Home advantage and market tilt make Villa more likely to cover, though margin uncertainty keeps confidence moderate.

Aston Villa is typically favored to win by about one goal (spread around -0.75 to -0.5). Given home advantage and the common -0.75 line, Villa covering is plausible unless Leeds pulls off a surprise.

GLM-5
58%

The spread line of Aston Villa -0.5 to -0.75 aligns with moneyline favoritism. While the -0.75 line offers elevated odds (2.02-2.05), the -0.5 line at 1.74 suggests the market expects Villa to win by at least one goal. Home side should cover a narrow victory scenario.

Grok 4
55%

Spreads favor Aston Villa at -0.75 with odds around 2.02-2.05, suggesting they are likely to win by at least one goal, covering the spread.

GPT-5
55%

Spread sits between Aston Villa -0.5 (1.74) and -0.75 (~2.02–2.05), implying a ~0.6–0.7 goal edge; reasonable chance Villa win by at least one and often by two.

Leeds United covers

While Aston Villa is favored to win, the odds for Leeds United +0.75 are consistently lower (meaning higher implied probability) than Aston Villa -0.75. This suggests that Leeds is more likely to cover the spread, either by winning, drawing, or losing by only a single goal.

The odds for Leeds United to cover the +0.75 spread (around 1.83) are notably lower than for Aston Villa to cover -0.75 (around 2.05). This suggests that while Aston Villa is favored to win, the market expects a close game, likely a win by only one goal, making the Leeds +0.75 bet the more probable outcome to cover.

The spread is tight at -0.5 to -0.75 for Aston Villa. While Villa is favored to win, the away spread at +0.75 (1.82-1.83 odds) offers value. Leeds only needs to lose by less than a goal or win outright. Given the modest spread and Villa's tendency to win narrowly against lower opposition, Leeds can stay within the margin.

The -0.75 Asian handicap line for Aston Villa with odds around 2.02-2.05 suggests bookmakers are uncertain Villa will win by a full goal margin. Leeds at +0.75 (1.82-1.83) offers value as they only need to avoid losing by more than one goal. The presence of a -0.5 line at one book (1.74) shows some uncertainty about Villa's margin of victory. Leeds' fighting spirit and ability to keep games competitive makes the +0.75 spread attractive.

Moneyline

Aston Villa +1.84 / Leeds United +4.4

100%

consensus

Aston Villa wins

13 models · avg conf 73%

Aston Villa wins (100%) Leeds United wins (0%)
13 models · avg 73% avg 0% · 0 models

Aston Villa wins

The moneyline odds are consistently low for Aston Villa, averaging around 1.75, which implies a high probability (approx. 57%) of a home victory. The market shows strong consensus on this outcome.

Aston Villa are consistently strong favorites across all provided moneyline odds, with average odds significantly lower than Leeds United, indicating a high probability of a home victory.

Aston Villa is heavily favored across all sportsbooks with consistent odds ranging from 1.71-1.80, indicating strong market confidence in a home victory. Leeds United's odds of 4.3-4.6 suggest significant underdog status. The consistency of Villa's favorable pricing across multiple books reflects their superior expected performance.

Market consistently prices Villa as a clear favorite (roughly 1.75–1.80) and multiple lines show home-side preference — implies higher probability of a Villa win.

Grok 3
75%

Aston Villa is consistently listed as the favorite across multiple moneyline odds (ranging from 1.71 to 1.8), indicating strong market confidence in their ability to win at home against Leeds United, whose odds range from 4.3 to 4.6.

Aston Villa has been performing well at home, and the odds favor them significantly against Leeds United, who have struggled on the road.

GPT-4o
75%

Aston Villa is favored across all odds with lower payout ratios, indicating they are seen as the stronger team. Additionally, as the home team, they have a higher likelihood of winning.

Aston Villa is heavily favored with odds ranging from 1.71-1.80, implying approximately 56-58% win probability. Leeds United's odds at 4.3-4.6 suggest only a 22-23% chance. The home advantage and consistent odds across multiple books indicate strong market confidence in Villa.

Aston Villa are heavy favorites across all bookmakers with odds ranging from 1.71-1.80, implying roughly 55-58% win probability. Playing at Villa Park gives them a significant home advantage. The consistent odds across multiple books suggest strong market consensus on Villa's superiority in this matchup. Leeds United's odds of 4.3-4.6 indicate bookmakers see them as clear underdogs.

Villa are consistently listed as the favorites across multiple lines with home advantage. Leeds United is the underdog with notably higher odds, indicating a clear favorite role for Villa.

Grok 4
65%

Aston Villa is consistently favored across multiple moneyline odds (1.71-1.8), indicating strong market expectation of a home win against Leeds United.

GLM-5
65%

Aston Villa is heavily favored across all bookmakers with odds averaging around 1.77, indicating approximately 56% implied probability. Home advantage at Villa Park and consistent market pricing suggest strong confidence in Villa securing all three points against a Leeds United side priced as significant underdogs (4.3-4.6).

GPT-5
62%

Consensus ML around 1.71–1.80 implies ~56–59% win probability; market positions Villa as clear home favorite over Leeds.

Over/Under

O/U 2.5

85%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 59%

Over (85%) Under (15%)
11 models · avg 59% avg 60% · 2 models

Over

Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede goals, and the odds on the over are relatively favorable, indicating a high-scoring match.

GPT-4o
65%

The odds for over 2.5 goals are slightly lower than under, suggesting a market expectation for a higher-scoring game. Both teams have shown tendencies for games with multiple goals in recent matchups.

Totals market is balanced but often slightly favors the over around 2.5. Given both teams’ tendencies toward scoring and conceding, a game with 3+ goals is a reasonable expectation.

Across the available lines, Over 2.5 is slightly favored (lower or equal odds vs Under). Both teams have the potential to score, suggesting a mid-range to higher-scoring EPL clash.

The odds for Over 2.5 goals are marginally lower than Under 2.5 goals across most bookmakers, indicating a slight leaning towards a game with three or more goals. This suggests a reasonably open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.

Grok 3
60%

The odds for Over 2.5 goals range from 1.8 to 1.89, slightly favoring a higher-scoring game. Given the attacking styles of both teams in the Premier League, there is a reasonable chance of at least 3 goals being scored.

Across all provided lines, the odds for Over 2.5 goals (averaging around 1.85) are consistently lower than the odds for Under 2.5 (averaging around 1.93). This indicates a slight but clear market expectation for a match with three or more total goals.

Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.80-1.89 across books, slightly favored over the under (1.91-1.96). Both teams typically feature in entertaining matches - Villa's attacking home style combined with Leeds' traditionally open, attacking philosophy tends to produce goals. The market consensus leans toward over 2.5, and Premier League matches at Villa Park historically see reasonable goal action. The tight juice suggests a close call, but the slight edge goes to the over.

GPT-5
58%

Over 2.5 is generally shorter (1.80–1.89) than the under, indicating expected goals lean above 2.5.

GLM-5
53%

Over 2.5 odds average around 1.86 compared to Under at 1.94, indicating slight market lean toward a higher-scoring affair. Both teams have shown attacking potential, and the tight odds suggest a 2-1 or 3-1 outcome is within reasonable expectation for this EPL fixture.

Grok 4
52%

Over 2.5 goals has slightly better odds (1.8-1.89) compared to under (1.91-1.96), pointing to a pattern of expecting higher-scoring games in this matchup.

Under

The totals line is set at 2.5 with Under odds consistently better (1.91-1.96) than Over (1.80-1.89). The market is slightly favoring Under, and the tight spread suggests a potentially low-scoring, competitive match. Villa's defensive solidity at home and Leeds' struggles to score regularly support an Under 2.5 goals outcome.

Over 2.5 averages 1.85 odds while Under 2.5 averages 1.93 odds. The slightly higher odds on Under suggest marginal market lean toward fewer goals. However, this is a relatively weak signal (58% confidence) as the odds are nearly balanced, indicating genuine uncertainty about goal output. This could be a cautiously defensive matchup or simply competitive teams.

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