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NCAA Football 9/5/2026 at 04:00 PM

UCLA Bruins

@

California Golden Bears

Spread

California Golden Bears -5.5 / UCLA Bruins +5.5

62%

consensus

California Golden Bears covers

13 models · avg conf 61%

California Golden Bears covers (62%) UCLA Bruins covers (38%)
8 models · avg 61% avg 56% · 5 models

California Golden Bears covers

With a spread of -5.5, the Golden Bears are expected to win by a touchdown. Given their home performance and the potential for scoring, they are likely to cover the spread.

GPT-4o
65%

The California Golden Bears are expected to win by more than 5.5 points, as indicated by the spread and their offensive capabilities.

California is favored at -5.5 points with nearly even odds (1.93), indicating a close but leaning matchup. The spread suggests competitive balance while favoring California. The similar odds on both sides (1.93 vs 1.89) indicate the market views this as a tight cover, but home field advantage and the consistent -5.5 line suggests California's slight edge is real enough to likely cover.

Grok 3
60%

California Golden Bears are favored by -5.5 points with odds of 1.93, suggesting a moderate expectation to win by at least a touchdown. While not overwhelmingly confident, their home advantage and odds lean toward covering the spread.

Cal -5.5 is priced around 1.93, suggesting a win by roughly a touchdown. Home-field advantage and a typically stronger projected offense support a Cal cover.

Cal is favored by 5.5 points, which is a modest margin. The line implies the market expects a one-score win; I lean to Cal covering at home but confidence is limited due to matchup variability and early-season volatility.

Grok 4
55%

Cal -5.5 is consistent in all lines, suggesting market consensus on Cal winning by a touchdown; their offensive strength should cover against UCLA's defense.

GLM-5
54%

The spread sits at -5.5 for California, suggesting a competitive but decisive victory. While rivalry games can be volatile, the home field advantage combined with the favorite status suggests California has the edge to win by a touchdown or more, narrowly covering the number.

UCLA Bruins covers

While California is favored to win, the spread odds show slightly better value for UCLA at +5.5 (1.89) compared to California -5.5 (1.93). This suggests the oddsmakers anticipate a competitive game where UCLA is more likely to cover the spread, either by winning or losing by less than 6 points.

While California is favored to win, the 5.5-point spread is relatively narrow for a rivalry game. UCLA as the underdog getting 5.5 points offers value. The nearly even odds (1.89 vs 1.93) suggest the market sees this as a close contest. Rivalry games tend to be competitive, and UCLA should keep it within a touchdown.

GPT-5
55%

UCLA +5.5 at 1.89 vs Cal -5.5 at 1.93 suggests a slight edge toward the dog covering in a likely one-score game.

The spread of 5.5 points is significant. The odds for UCLA covering (+5.5 at 1.89) are slightly more favorable than for California covering (-5.5 at 1.93), suggesting the market sees value in the underdog. Rivalry games are often closer than expected, making the points valuable for the away team.

UCLA +5.5 offers value in what projects as a competitive Pac-12 rivalry game (or former conference rivals post-realignment). The spread is relatively tight at 5.5 points, and UCLA historically plays Cal tough. Getting nearly a touchdown with a Power conference program in a rivalry setting provides a margin for error. The nearly even juice (-1.89/-1.93) suggests this line is well-balanced.

Moneyline

California Golden Bears +1.49 / UCLA Bruins +2.68

100%

consensus

California Golden Bears wins

13 models · avg conf 70%

California Golden Bears wins (100%) UCLA Bruins wins (0%)
13 models · avg 70% avg 0% · 0 models

California Golden Bears wins

The Golden Bears have a strong home-field advantage and have performed well in previous matchups against the Bruins. The odds reflect their higher likelihood of winning.

Grok 3
75%

The odds of 1.49 for California Golden Bears indicate a strong implied probability of winning (around 67%). As the home team with favorable odds, they are likely to have a performance edge over UCLA Bruins.

The moneyline odds heavily favor the California Golden Bears at 1.49, indicating a strong probability of them winning the game outright according to the market.

The moneyline odds of 1.49 give the California Golden Bears an implied win probability of approximately 67%. As the home team and the clear favorite according to the betting market, they are the most likely team to win the game outright.

The moneyline odds of 1.49 indicate California is a strong favorite with an implied probability of approximately 67%. As the home team with favorable odds, California has the clear edge to win this matchup outright.

GPT-4o
70%

The odds suggest California Golden Bears are favored, reflecting stronger recent performances and home-field advantage.

Cal is the favorite on the moneyline (1.49) with an implied probability around 67%. Playing at home adds to their edge against UCLA, making them the more likely winner.

Market prices strongly favor Cal (ML 1.49, ~67% implied). Home-field and a -5.5 spread indicate bookmakers see Cal as the clearer favorite; take the ML at modest confidence given early-season uncertainty.

GLM-5
68%

The odds (1.49) imply a roughly 67% win probability for California, indicating they are significant favorites at home. The substantial gap in payout for UCLA (2.68) suggests the market views the Golden Bears as the clearly superior side in this matchup.

The moneyline odds of 1.49 for California vs 2.68 for UCLA reflect a clear market preference for the home team. This -5.5 point spread suggests California is favored by the market and oddsmakers expect them to win. Home field advantage in college football is meaningful, and the odds gap indicates California is the stronger team in this matchup.

Grok 4
67%

Cal is heavily favored at 1.49 moneyline across consistent odds, implying strong home advantage and better recent form against UCLA.

GPT-5
64%

Odds of 1.49 imply ~64% after accounting for juice; repeated listings show a consistent market lean to Cal at home.

Cal is favored at home with implied probability of ~67% based on 1.49 odds. Home field advantage in college football is significant, and the moneyline suggests oddsmakers see Cal as the clearly stronger team in this matchup. Early September games favor home teams adjusting to their environment.

Over/Under

O/U 53.5

62%

consensus

Over

13 models · avg conf 56%

Over (62%) Under (38%)
8 models · avg 56% avg 52% · 5 models

Over

Both teams have shown the ability to score and given the betting line at 53.5, there is a good chance that the game will go over that total, especially if the Golden Bears' offense is clicking.

GPT-4o
60%

Both teams have shown tendencies to engage in high-scoring games, and the line suggests a competitive match likely to exceed 53.5 points.

The total of 53.5 with perfectly balanced odds (1.91 both sides) suggests an efficient market. Both Pac-12 programs typically feature competitive offenses. The neutral pricing indicates no strong lean, but conference games between these teams historically tend toward higher-scoring affairs. Slight edge to the over in what should be a competitive matchup.

Grok 3
55%

The total points line is set at 53.5 with even odds (1.91) for both over and under. Given the offensive potential in college football and a relatively high total, a slight lean toward 'over' is warranted, though confidence remains moderate.

The odds for both over and under are identical, indicating the market sees an equal probability for either outcome. However, NCAA football games, especially early season matchups, often have potential for higher scoring as offenses tend to find their rhythm faster than defenses. This leads to a slight lean towards the Over.

Both teams have capable offenses for a pace that could push the total above 53.5, though the line is close and outcomes can be swingy in early-season matchups.

Grok 4
52%

Total at 53.5 with even odds indicates a high-scoring Pac-12 matchup; both teams have potent offenses likely to push past the line based on historical trends.

Total set at 53.5 is middle-to-high. Early-season games and likely game script (favored home team expected to score, trailing team needing to keep pace) slightly favor the over, but this is a low-confidence lean.

Under

The totals are evenly priced at 1.91 for both over and under 53.5 points, indicating true market uncertainty. However, early season games (September 5th) often feature defensive adjustments and teams working out timing issues, which typically leads to slightly lower-scoring affairs. Additionally, this is a rivalry game where teams may prioritize defense. The slight lean is toward under, but confidence is low given the even odds.

At 53.5, this total is set moderately high for a Cal home game. Early season games often feature rusty offenses, conservative playcalling, and defenses that are ahead of offensive timing. Both teams may still be establishing their identity, which typically leads to lower-scoring affairs. The perfectly balanced juice at 1.91 indicates uncertainty, making this a marginal lean.

GLM-5
52%

The total is set at a moderate 53.5 points. Early season college football games (Week 1/2) often feature defenses that are more prepared than offenses. Additionally, rivalry games tend to be played with higher intensity, potentially limiting scoring opportunities and keeping the game under the total.

The odds are identical for the over and under (1.91), indicating a perfectly balanced line with no clear market sentiment. Early season games can often feature offenses that are still developing chemistry, leading to lower-scoring outcomes. In a divisional rivalry, defenses tend to play with higher intensity, favoring the under.

GPT-5
51%

Over/Under 53.5 is evenly priced; with a moderate spread and early-season variance, small lean to the under.

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