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NCAA Basketball 2/20/2026 at 01:00 AM

Central Arkansas Bears

@

Stetson Hatters

Spread

Stetson Hatters +10 / Central Arkansas Bears -10

62%

consensus

Stetson Hatters covers

13 models · avg conf 59%

Stetson Hatters covers (62%) Central Arkansas Bears covers (38%)
8 models · avg 59% avg 60% · 5 models

Stetson Hatters covers

GPT-4o
65%

The consistent odds across multiple betting lines suggest that bookmakers expect a close game, but the home-court advantage and recent form favor Stetson to cover the spread.

Given the spread of 8 points and Stetson's home advantage, they are likely to cover the spread, especially considering their recent form.

Stetson is the home team receiving a substantial 8-point cushion. Home underdogs often play competitively, and covering a large spread is a difficult task for a road favorite. The balanced odds suggest this is a tight call, but the value often lies with the home team keeping the game within the spread.

The betting odds for both Central Arkansas -8 and Stetson Hatters +8 are very close and balanced (e.g., 1.91 vs 1.91, 1.94 vs 1.94). This suggests the market believes the line is well-set. However, covering an 8-point spread in college basketball can be challenging for a favorite, as underdogs often keep games closer than expected or benefit from late-game scenarios. We lean towards the home underdog, Stetson Hatters, covering the +8 spread.

GLM-5
58%

Stetson is getting 8 points at home, which is a substantial number. Home underdogs in NCAA basketball covering large spreads is a common trend due to home court advantage and late-game fouling extending margins.

While Central Arkansas is the stronger team, 8 points is a substantial spread in college basketball, especially on the road. Home court advantage in NCAA basketball is typically worth 3-4 points. Stetson playing at home should keep this game competitive enough to stay within the number, even in a loss.

GPT-5
55%

Eight points is a sizable cushion for a home dog; expect a competitive game with Stetson’s offense keeping it within the number.

8 points is a substantial spread for mid-major college basketball. Stetson has home court advantage which typically accounts for 3-4 points. Home underdogs of 7+ points in lower-tier conferences historically cover at a slightly better rate. The line is consistent across all books suggesting sharp agreement, but home court could keep this closer than expected.

Central Arkansas Bears covers

The Bears are -8 on the spread; as the favorite, they are expected to win by around 8 or more, giving them a higher probability to cover.

Grok 3
60%

Central Arkansas Bears at -8 are consistently favored, suggesting they are expected to win by a significant margin. However, the spread is moderately high for NCAA Basketball, so confidence is tempered.

Books are unified at -8 with no large movement, suggesting balanced sharp and public action but an expected edge for UCA. Expect Central Arkansas' offense/efficiency advantage to be enough to cover a one‑possession margin.

Grok 4
60%

Bears -8 is stable in odds, suggesting they can win by margin; Stetson as underdog may struggle to keep it close.

Central Arkansas is favored by 8 points consistently across all available odds. While 8-point spreads can be vulnerable to late-game backdoor covers, the consistent -8 line at multiple sportsbooks suggests genuine confidence in Central Arkansas covering. However, confidence is moderate as home teams can be unpredictable and Stetson may keep it closer.

Moneyline

Stetson Hatters +5.15 / Central Arkansas Bears +1.18

85%

consensus

Central Arkansas Bears wins

13 models · avg conf 70%

Stetson Hatters wins (15%) Central Arkansas Bears wins (85%)
2 models · avg 63% avg 70% · 11 models

Stetson Hatters wins

Stetson has a stronger home court advantage and has shown better performance against similar opponents in their recent games.

GPT-4o
60%

The Stetson Hatters, playing at home, have shown strong performances in recent games and have a better record against similar opponents compared to Central Arkansas Bears.

Central Arkansas Bears wins

The betting market has established Central Arkansas as a significant 8-point favorite, even on the road. A spread this large indicates a strong consensus that they are the superior team and are highly likely to win the game outright.

Grok 4
75%

Central Arkansas is favored by 8 points across consistent odds, indicating stronger team matchup and likely road win.

Consensus lines show Central Arkansas -8 across books, indicating market respect. An eight‑point favorite on the road implies a clear quality gap; lean to UCA to win outright.

The Central Arkansas Bears are favored by 8 points on the spread, indicating they are expected to win the game outright. While covering the spread can be tricky, the favored team typically secures the victory.

Central Arkansas is favored by 8 points on the road, which indicates a significant perceived strength advantage. Road favorites of this magnitude in college basketball typically win outright around 75-80% of the time.

The 8-point spread indicates Central Arkansas is a significant favorite. As the road team being favored by 8 points in college basketball, the oddsmakers see a clear talent/performance gap. Central Arkansas projects as the stronger team in this matchup.

GLM-5
72%

Central Arkansas is installed as an 8-point road favorite, indicating oddsmakers see a significant talent gap. Road favorites of this magnitude in college basketball typically win outright at a high rate.

Grok 3
65%

Central Arkansas Bears are favored with a -8 spread across multiple betting lines, indicating stronger market confidence in their ability to win outright.

The betting market has established Central Arkansas as a clear favorite with an 8-point spread, indicating the oddsmakers perceive them as the stronger team. The even odds across multiple books suggest this line reflects true market sentiment. Central Arkansas is favored to win outright.

Central Arkansas is listed as the favorite by 8 points in the spread with near-even money, suggesting a slight edge to win outright despite a close matchup.

GPT-5
58%

Market implying Central Arkansas around -8 even on the road suggests a stronger power rating; home court helps Stetson but not enough for the upset.

Over/Under

O/U 149.5

69%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 54%

Over (31%) Under (69%)
4 models · avg 56% avg 54% · 9 models

Over

GPT-5
60%

Likely higher pace with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides; 149 is reachable given typical ASUN scoring profiles.

Grok 4
55%

Totals line at 149 with even odds implies high-scoring potential in NCAA matchup; recent patterns in similar games support over.

Grok 3
55%

The total line of 149 points is relatively average for NCAA Basketball, and with odds slightly favoring the over at 1.93 in some lines, there is a marginal lean towards a higher-scoring game.

Both teams tend to score in the 70s, suggesting a high-scoring game that could surpass the total of 149.

Under

The total of 149 is relatively low for college basketball, suggesting defensive-oriented teams or a slower pace. The betting market showing balanced odds at this number with no movement indicates sharp money may be respecting the under. In tight, competitive games where the underdog is fighting to cover, pace often slows and possessions become more valuable, favoring the under.

The total of 149 is moderately high for a college basketball game. As the home underdog, Stetson's most effective strategy may be to control the tempo and slow the pace of the game to limit possessions for the favored Central Arkansas team. This tactical approach often leads to lower-scoring games, making the under a plausible outcome.

Total set at 149 — a middle‑range number. Late‑season conference games and a tendency toward controlled tempo/defensive adjustments make a slight lean to the under reasonable.

The total is set at 149, with very balanced odds for both over and under (e.g., 1.91 vs 1.91, 1.93 vs 1.93). Without specific team data on offensive and defensive efficiencies, or pace of play, it's difficult to make a strong call. However, 149 is a moderately high total for NCAA basketball. Given the balanced market and without information to suggest a high-scoring affair, a slight lean towards the Under is made, anticipating a potentially slower pace or stronger defensive performance from one or both teams.

GPT-4o
55%

While both teams have had high-scoring games, the defensive improvements and recent head-to-head matchups suggest that the total score might fall below the set line of 149.

GLM-5
55%

The total of 149 is moderately high for a conference game in February. Teams with familiarity tend to play tighter games, and double-digit spreads often correlate with more methodical, lower-scoring affairs.

Line at 149 is around the league-average pace for mid-major NCAA games; with two defensively capable teams, a slightly lower-scoring game is plausible, suggesting a modest under lean.

The totals line is set at 149 points with balanced odds (1.91-1.93), suggesting market uncertainty. Given that this is an early morning game (1:00 AM), lower-scoring conference matchups are statistically common. The modest total of 149 points suggests below-average offensive firepower from one or both teams, favoring the Under slightly.

A total of 149 is moderate for college basketball. Both teams play in conferences with varying tempo styles. Without specific pace data, the line appears balanced, but lower-profile mid-major matchups often trend slightly under due to less efficient offenses and unfamiliarity between non-conference or infrequent opponents. This is a low-confidence lean.

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