Back to Events
English Premier League 2/21/2026 at 08:00 PM

Newcastle United

@

Manchester City

Spread

Manchester City -1.25 / Newcastle United +1.25

77%

consensus

Manchester City covers

13 models · avg conf 68%

Manchester City covers (77%) Newcastle United covers (23%)
10 models · avg 68% avg 59% · 3 models

Manchester City covers

Manchester City is favored to win by more than a goal, with the -1.25 spread hovering around even money (1.98-1.99). Given their strong offensive record at home and Newcastle's historical struggles against top teams, Manchester City is likely to cover this spread, winning by at least two goals.

Manchester City is favored at -1.25 to -1.5 goals across multiple books. The -1.25 spread shows better value with odds around 1.98-1.99. City's attacking prowess and home form typically allows them to win by at least 2 goals against mid-table opposition. Newcastle has shown defensive vulnerabilities in away fixtures, making the spread coverage likely.

Given Manchester City's attacking prowess and Newcastle's defensive vulnerabilities, they are likely to win by more than the -1.25 spread, especially at home.

City are expected to win by at least 2 goals. The -1.25 spread is a common, favorable line for the home team in this matchup (around 1.98–1.99).

Grok 4
70%

Spreads like -1.25 for Manchester City suggest they are expected to win by more than a goal; their attacking strength supports covering against Newcastle.

GPT-4o
70%

The spread is set at -1.25 to -1.5 for Manchester City, with relatively high odds for them to cover, suggesting bookmakers expect them to win by more than one goal. Given their strong performance history, they are likely to cover the spread.

Grok 3
70%

Manchester City is favored by -1.25 to -1.5 goals in the spread markets, with odds around 1.98-2.15. Given their historical dominance and attacking strength, they are likely to win by at least 2 goals, covering the -1.25 spread more often than not.

Lines cluster around City -1.25 to -1.5, meaning a 2+ goal win required to cover. Given City’s favoritism and attacking profile implied by the market, they are the more likely side to cover, though Newcastle can still keep it close.

GLM-5
58%

The spread is set at Manchester City -1.25 to -1.5 goals. While City often win by multiple goals at home, Newcastle have improved defensively and can keep matches competitive. The -1.25 line at near even odds offers decent value, but confidence is moderate given Newcastle's resilience.

GPT-5
56%

Markets set City -1.25 to -1.5 near even money; pricing implies a decent chance of a 2+ goal win to cover.

Newcastle United covers

The spread is set at -1.25 to -1.5 for Manchester City. While City should win, Newcastle at +1.25/+1.5 offers value. The odds favor Newcastle on the spread (1.62-1.87 vs 1.98-2.15), suggesting bookmakers expect a competitive match. A 1-0 or 2-1 City win would result in Newcastle covering, which is plausible given the tight spread.

The odds for Newcastle United to cover a +1.5 goal spread are significantly lower (1.62) than for Manchester City to cover -1.5 (2.15). This indicates that the market expects a close game, likely a one-goal victory for Manchester City, making Newcastle +1.5 the value play.

The spread of -1.25 to -1.5 for City is substantial. Newcastle have proven to be competitive against top sides and rarely get blown out. The -1.25 line at 1.98-1.99 suggests bookmakers see value close to even money on Newcastle covering. Newcastle's defensive organization under their setup typically keeps matches closer than the moneyline suggests. Taking Newcastle +1.25/+1.5 offers protection in a 1-0 or 2-1 City win scenario.

Moneyline

Manchester City +1.47 / Newcastle United +6.18

100%

consensus

Manchester City wins

13 models · avg conf 83%

Manchester City wins (100%) Newcastle United wins (0%)
13 models · avg 83% avg 0% · 0 models

Manchester City wins

Manchester City are heavy home favorites, as reflected by the consistently low moneyline odds across all provided bookmakers (averaging ~1.45). This implies a high probability of a straightforward victory against Newcastle.

Manchester City is a heavy favorite, with moneyline odds consistently below 1.50 across all bookmakers. This indicates a very high implied probability of them securing a win at home against Newcastle United.

Manchester City is heavily favored with consensus odds around 1.45, implying approximately 69% win probability. The consistent pricing across multiple books (1.42-1.50) shows strong market confidence in a City victory at home against Newcastle.

Grok 3
85%

Manchester City has consistently low odds across multiple lines (ranging from 1.42 to 1.50), indicating strong market confidence in their victory. As a top-tier team in the Premier League, they are likely to outperform Newcastle United, whose odds range from 5.5 to 6.25, suggesting a significant underdog status.

Grok 4
85%

Manchester City is heavily favored with odds around 1.45, indicating strong market expectation of a home win against Newcastle's underdog status.

GPT-4o
85%

The odds consistently favor Manchester City heavily, indicating they are the stronger team. Their home advantage and overall team strength suggest a high probability of winning.

Manchester City has consistently dominated at home and has a strong squad compared to Newcastle United. Their recent form and head-to-head record favor them heavily.

Manchester City's moneyline odds consistently range from 1.42-1.50 across all sportsbooks, indicating strong market consensus for a home victory. The implied probability of approximately 67-70% reflects City's superior squad quality, home advantage, and Newcastle's historically poor away record against top teams. Newcastle's odds of 5.5-6.25 suggest bookmakers view an upset as unlikely.

The odds heavily favor Manchester City (1.42-1.50 range) reflecting their dominant home record and superior squad quality. Newcastle odds of 5.5-6.25 indicate bookmakers see roughly 15-18% implied probability for an upset. City at the Etihad against non-top-6 opponents historically wins at a very high rate. The consistent pricing across all bookmakers reinforces confidence in City winning outright.

City are clear home favorites with odds around 1.45–1.47; Newcastle is a long shot (5.5–6.0). Current form and head-to-head trends favor City.

Market consistently prices City as a heavy favorite (avg ~1.45), implying a strong win probability. Multiple books show similar lines — home side advantage and depth edge make Man City the likely winner.

GLM-5
78%

Manchester City are heavy home favorites with odds consistently around 1.42-1.50, implying a 67-70% win probability. Their dominant home record at the Etihad and superior squad quality against a mid-table Newcastle side justifies strong confidence in the home victory.

GPT-5
74%

Consistent heavy favorite across books (1.42–1.50 implies ~67–70%+). Strong home edge vs. Newcastle.

Over/Under

O/U 3.5

54%

consensus

Under

13 models · avg conf 64%

Over (46%) Under (54%)
6 models · avg 63% avg 64% · 7 models

Over

Both teams have shown tendencies to be involved in high-scoring games. With Manchester City's offensive capabilities and Newcastle's potential to score, the over on 3.25 seems likely.

Grok 3
65%

The totals market shows a line of 3.25 to 3.5 goals, with odds for 'over' ranging from 1.91 to 2.18. Manchester City's high-scoring potential, especially at home, combined with Newcastle's ability to occasionally score against top teams, suggests the game could exceed 3.25 goals.

Grok 4
65%

Totals lines at 3.25/3.5 with even odds imply a high-scoring game likely, given Manchester City's offensive prowess and recent trends in similar matchups.

GPT-4o
65%

The totals are set around 3.25 to 3.5 goals, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game. Manchester City's offensive capabilities and Newcastle's potential for conceding goals make the 'over' a reasonable prediction.

Totals cluster at 3.25–3.5 with relatively balanced juice; market slightly favors under but the matchup and City’s offensive tendencies make an Over (>3.25) plausible. Recommend Over 3.25 for better value than Over 3.5.

GLM-5
55%

The total line at 3.25-3.5 goals reflects expectations of a moderately high-scoring affair. Manchester City's attacking prowess at home typically produces multiple goals, and Newcastle have the capability to contribute. Over 3.25 at ~1.91 odds offers slight value, though the Under 3.5 at 1.67 suggests bookmakers expect the total to land around 3 goals.

Under

The odds for Under 3.5 goals are consistently low (1.67), indicating a strong market expectation for 3 goals or fewer in the match. While Manchester City can score, Newcastle may adopt a more defensive approach, and the betting market does not anticipate a high-scoring affair with 4 or more goals.

The betting market heavily favors the Under on the 3.5 goal line, with odds around 1.67 compared to over 2.0 for the Over. This strong pricing suggests that while a high-scoring game is possible, the most probable outcome is three or fewer total goals.

GPT-5
61%

Under 3.5 is strongly juiced (~1.67) and 3.25 totals are near even; market midpoint ~3.2 goals favors the under.

The Under 3.25 line is slightly more favorable (around 1.93) and both teams' defenses and recent score patterns suggest a total around 3 goals or fewer.

Totals are split around 3.25-3.5 goals with relatively balanced odds (1.91-1.93 for over/under at 3.25). The slight lean toward under is based on Newcastle's defensive setup in away matches and their tendency to be compact. However, confidence is moderate as City's attacking output could push toward the over, and the market appears genuinely uncertain on this metric.

The total is consistently set at 3.25-3.5 goals across all books. The Under 3.25/3.5 is priced at 1.67-1.93, showing slightly better value than the Over at 1.91-2.18. This suggests bookmakers lean toward a lower-scoring affair. A typical 2-1 or 2-0 Manchester City victory would hit the under, and the market pricing indicates this is the more likely scenario.

The totals line at 3.25-3.5 with the under priced favorably at 1.67-1.93 suggests slight lean toward lower scoring. Newcastle typically adopt a pragmatic approach against City, limiting space and chances. While City score prolifically, matches against organized defensive teams often see controlled tempos. The under 3.5 at 1.67 offers better value than over 3.5 at 2.08-2.18, indicating market expectation of 2-3 total goals being most likely.

© 2026 Airena

TBD